Chandrababu Naidu - Decline and Politial fallout

Chandrababu Naidu inspired a generation in Andhra Pradesh and many parts of India. I too was one of them, impressed by transparent administration and development slogan. Back 1990's - while Naidu graph was running high - at the pinnacle of the power he had open door to Prime Minister office. He turned king maker and crowned two or three Prime Ministers of India. At one point - two strong possibilities were in his Political graph. Naidu the life term Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh like Jyothi Basu (he called himself CEO after hobnobbing with the likes of Bill Gates). Or else, becoming Prime Minister of India. Both were indeed strong possibilities.

However, neither proved correct. Naidu was booted out of power in 2004. This was a shock for Naidu and many of his fans. There are many reasons for the Naidu's rout. First, he went too fast with economic reforms in a less industrialised state. He failed to balance between development and subsidies. This hit poor and agriculture sector hard. Second, Naidu concentrated all his development mantra around Hyderabad. Finally, showered under media hype, Naidu became arrogant, out of touch and autocratic. All the Government employees turned against him. He could not even sense the upcoming disaster.

There is no better lesson than failure, if one is prepared to listen and adapt. YS Rajasekhar Reddy, who  stepped into the CM chambers reversed most of the Naidu policies. By many accounts, YSR presided one of the corrupt administrations. For the sake of votes and power, development became lopsided and subsidies went up exponentially. Irrational alliances were made that are proving too costly for Congress power in AP and at Delhi in 2014. Congress Government in Delhi suffered from series of corruption scandals. Andhra Pradesh was burning day in and out due to Telngana movement. Under tragic circumstances, YSR passed away.

Everyone knew and acutely aware of huge political vacuum in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu was the answer. But he failed again. This is the third time, after successive election debacles in 2004 an 2009.

First, he fought with YSR on ethics and then continued his petty fight with Jaganmohan Reddy, who is a political novice by any measure. While the state was burning, administration was paralysed, Naidu's political vision blurred out. Since 2004, Naidu claimed by many a great strategist, proved too light on strategy and more consistent on persistent blunders.

He never had a clear policy stand on Telengana Statehood. First he appeared to be for united Andhra Pradesh. Then under intense pressure given a favourable consideration for Telengana. When, Telengana was announced, it was a yorker and looked stunned for a while. When he sensed that sentiment in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema was very strong against the bifurcation of state he changed the tone. Instead of fighting in Delhi where was real power to make or break a decision - he hit the roads of Coastal Andhra. His strategy,  this time is not stop to bifurcation but to retain the political base in the limited region. If Naidu were to announce like YSR, that he was not in favour of Telengana, no power at Delhi would have dared to take this decision.

Thinking too big of himself is Naidu's another obvious shortcoming. Despite wide and varied views, there is no denial of the fact that KCR is instrumental in Telengana creation. Naidu still thinks KCR is small time politician and plays down despite KCR huge political success. This is no small feat.

Naidu is good at hypothetical claims. First of them is, Naidu persistent claims that YSR Congress is merely a Congress proxy. What Naidu do not understand is, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is most popular politician in Coastal Andhra and Telengana. Here again, Naidu thinks too big of himself and as he did with KCR he downplays Jagan. Instead of hitting hard on real issues and real solution, Naidu has been clueless.

Naidu however had limited success in his own back yard. He successfully manoeuvred his brothers-in-law and ensured that NTR JR, a potential contender for leadership is checkmated. He cleared path to crown his his son Lokesh. It is interesting to note that Naidu was a ardent opponent of dynastic politics.

With all polls suggesting that Telugu Desam Party is going to beat the dust, slowly all the party cadres are deserting this great party once stood for the pride of Telugus. Naidu, having meekly surrendered, with no credibility left is just eking out with kitchen politics. What a great polical fall out for once tall leader, considered a visionary to be a minnow in his own state?

Undavalli Arun Kumar Rajahmundry Message and Analysis

Undavalli Arun Kumar is politician of intellect and logic. At first, a brief reading of his political standing and acumen is necessary to gain insight and then, understand the logical basis for his Rajahmundry rally. Largely uncontroversial, perhaps little known until Margadarsi episode Arun Kumar public profile had a meteoric raise soon after this head on with Ramoji Rao. It was a well known fact, YS Rajasekhar Reddy personal animosity with media baron was genesis for Arun Kumar's allegations. Being a close associate of YSR and a lawyer by profession, Arun Kumar by and large did a splendid job damaging the reputation of Godly Ramoji Rao. However, his prescience and oratory skills together have raised his reputation in Delhi. He became on of the key "advisors" to high command. At the same time, unlike many other vocal and public attention seeking politicians, he remained largely a back room operator keeping his political network intact.

Against this background, his recent rally and the speech [for Unified Andhra Pradesh] at his home constituency Rajahmundry is already creating  waves in the state.  Leaving aside the emotional and illogical outbursts, noise and clutter it is clear that Arun Kumar is clearly giving a message either for the United Andhra Pradesh or for the bifurcation of the state.  As it happened in the case of Margadarsi episode, there is no personal or political gain for Undavalli by becoming a center of attention. Also, the Seema Andhra group is lead by the powerful Lagadapati Rajgopal, Rayapati Sambasiva Rao or Kavuri Sambasiva Rao (until his recent exit from the scene). There is a general feel KVP Ramachandra Rao could be the mastermind behind this event and speech there of. However Arun Kumar, a life time Congress loyalist and sort of a blue eyed boy of Congress high command would not take a risk of making both logical and emotional statements without the blessings of Congress High Command. To put it simple - at this juncture, the Congress high command would not like accrual of further complications from some one like Vundavalli Arun Kumar.

In a nutshell, Rajahmundry Member of Parliament is conveying high command message. Analyzing his speech, it is obvious that there are two key issues on the table to be resolved. First, what to do with the Hyderabad?  In his speech and subsequently, despite saying "Jai Telengana", he is making a strong case that - never in the history of independent India - state Capital region was included in request for separation. Madras, Bombay, Patna, Bhopal remained with the original unified state while rest of the state was separated into Andhra, Gujarat, Jarkhand or Chattisgarh. Does it mean - Telengana without Hyderabad is a possibility with out further bloodbath?

Second, and more importantly - who should take the credit for creating a Telengana state? As long as TRS remains a separate political entity, the credit would go to Telengana Rastra Samithi and K Chandra Sekhar Rao & his family (son K T Rama Rao, daughter K Kavitha and nephew Harish Rao). This is a risk Congress does not want to take. At his best, KCR is least trustworthy partner and his maverick decisions and outbursts or on par with Mamata Benerjee . Hence, Undavalli cleverly explained TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu case in the context and explained why Naidu was not adored by TRS despite his revised positive stand to create Telengana. As long as Congress is in power, the credit for any success and political benefit must go to Gandhi's. As of now, it is not possible. Hence, Arun Kumar is repeatedly stated that it is TRS which does not want Telengana for political gains in 2014. It means, only on prior [unconditional] merger of TRS, Congress would make a positive announcement.

Finally, he lead to the key point to have a logical and meaningful discussions between the leaders of both regions [setting aside emotions and sentiments].  This means, protecting the interests of Andhra and Rayalaseema region and their people in Telengana.

Unless all these these three points are agreed in principle by TRS and Congress leaders in Telengana, Congress High Command is not in a position to take a final decision.

This time, they could not find any better politician than Vundavalli Arun Kumar who is good at explaining subtle issues.  Job done, but will it yield results?

Jagan landslide and democarcy in dilemma

First time it was accident, second time it was luck - but if happens third time - it is a habit. Jagan Mohan Reddy as expected became a hero with resounding victories at Kadapa, Nellore and now across 16 constituencies in the state. These landslide victories have taught a lesson or two for most for his opponents. However, fresh questions have been raised by observers on the very genesis of his success with in the context of the democracy.

Executive, judiciary and legislature are the three pillars of the democracy. During the past 60 years, the key players in this System have made a mockery and the result is, a nation that has been paralyzed by non-performance and corruption scandals. As they have few options, citizens have elected scores of representatives with criminal records and sent them to both Parliament and state legislatures. Of them, until recently - Jagan Mohan Reddy is just one. However, with the game changing victories that knocked out Telugu Desam Party and Congress, fresh questions have been raised.

Some of the leaders in the state questioned the wisdom of the voters who have voted for the YSRCP. Some of the leaders branded the victory an emotional blackmail. Many of the bitter critics called it a doomsday. One high profile leader in the state even called it an accidental voting on account of circumstances. At once this victory moved the gravity from Jagan's corruption issues on which the elections have been fought by his opponents to, questioning citizens fundamental right in democracy - Vote.

Now the question is about who is right and who is wrong?

Jagan has been charged but he is not convicted. Taking the adage, no one is guilty until proven, people who have voted in the elections by and large did not believe what the Government of Andhra Pradesh, Eenadu, Andhra Jyothy, CBI, Congress Party and Chandra Babu Naidu have been claiming.

Within widely corrupted democratic system in India there are few holy cows. Some of the holy cows like Manmohan Singh, perhaps are more damaging to systems than the acknowledged rotten elements. Thus, there is locus standi for any debate based on corruption or honesty. As we have seen, when the time comes - all the forces across the party lines join to pip lokpal bill and in turn work towards damaging the reputation of Anna Hazare and his associates.

The key point is, the three pillars in democracy are expected to work for the poor, vulnerable and needy sections of the society. However, with the widening divide between rich and poor, most of the elected representative forget their constituents soon after getting a ticket to Delhi or Hyderabad. Despite all the allegations, both YS Rajasekhar Reddy and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy made the difference at this level. They have connected with the people. Listened to them. Tried to understand them. At the end, what matters to a voter is - how best they are taken care off. A mere statistic, or a simplified technocratic definition of poverty at Rs 26 per day, or a full meal to eke out a life?

When I visit a temple I do not question chastity of the priest. When I go to school, my focus is on how good my teacher is but not his background. At the end of the day, 99% people want solutions to their problems and opportunities for survival. Who cares if YSR or Jagan are corrupt as long as they take care of their constituents?

Many critics continue to question Jagan and his victory. May refuse to accept it. May come out statistics that his victory is not as convincing as it is seen. But the crux of the matter is Service to the Citizens. All those Congress and TDP leadership have amassed huge wealth and yet they cared little for the people. If they are serious to defeat Jagan, then there is no option but to connect with people and work for their welfare. It is high time if Chandrababu Naidu realize that, Eenadu with all the crap filings is key constituent of his down fall. Equally, Congress should have realized that, more they talk against YSR or Jagan they are exposing themselves.

The bottom line is, citizens are the foundation for the three pillar of the democracy. Despite all the allegation, Jagan's and YSRCP victory is honest in people court and it is in black and white. There is no scope for debate on this verdict.

Jagan - On road to becoming a Hero

Half is my effort or Half is God's blessing. Or it is the case that, a third is my hard work, a third is Yellow media and finally a third is Delhi's incapability? All in all, Jagan is mostly likely be a hero in coming days. Having come this far, CBI cannot backtrack on the case and accusations made against Jaganmohan Reddy. If it back tracks, Jagan is going to see early victory and vindication. If get's arrested, the state will see another crisis and eventually Jagan with his tremendous energy and resources would know how to turn the event for his success. And finally, if CBI presents the case in the Court - on circumstantial evidences - Government and CBI would loose the case. This is going to be a triple whammy for all the forces that have been waging both a direct and indirect war against Jagan.

Who are these three? On the top of the list is Ramoji Rao of Eenadu. A single day would not pass without making wide allegations and seemingly acceptable facts of culpability of both Jagan and YS Rajasekhar Reddy. Even if the adage that repeated lies may eventually be accepted as facts is true, due to intense personal apathy - Ramoji Rao is risking the credibility of his Eenadu which has been house hold name for decades. In this battle, David and Goliath resembling story, Jagan is having all the long term advantage. At some point, Jagan would definitely thank Eenadu and Ramoji Rao for all the free coverage and their efforts to keep him alive in public memory.

The second force is Madam Sonia Gandhi and her high command.  They have applied same strategy of nullifying their bitter enemies by using CBI as their front end tool. However, Sonia and her team failed to realize that Jagan is now most popular mass leader in the state and command significant following. With the state congress, never in such a dire state for at least 3 decades, and a dysfunctional government, failing opposition party, people in the state are desperately looking for a change. Jagan fits into the shoes well. By pushing CBI, Congress is now likely help Jagan by failing to prove his culpability in the illegal assets case. If this happens, the only black mark on Jagan will erase for good and he will have a free run.

The third factor is ubiquitous caste factor. All signs around point that Congress is now moving towards, Kapu community. With Telugu Desam branded now a pro-Kamma Party - the powerful Reddy community is now at cross roads. If it is certain that the Kiran Kumar Reddy will be replaced, by a non-Reddy Telengana Leader -then the questions become deeper and probing. With considerable evidence that people are least bothered about the corruption allegations against YSR family by handing them sound victories in the elections - Jagan is slowly providing to be acceptable leader. All the other 'discarded' castes will slowly drift towards Jagan.

I still doubt if Jagan will win a landslide in 2014, but he will remain a strong contender for a such result provided he make rights moves and the rest of his enemies continue to repeat mistakes based on a wrong agenda.

AP State: Politcal & Power Equations Impending Shift

From around 2008, Andhra Pradesh effectively entered into the 4th phase of political power shift from the currently dominant Reddy to Kapu community. In AP, while Caste is ubiquitous factor in all the facets of life, in politics this is the predominant factor for Power.

Until independence while Andhra was part of Madras State, Brahmins were dominant political force. Being wealthy at that time, their education and willingness to migrate to urban centres helped them to lead politically. As a result, most of the 1st generation leaders of this time were Brahmins. Similar situation to a lesser extent prevailed even in erstwhile Hyderabad state. Tanguturi Prakasam and Burgula Ramakrishna Rao both Brahmins, were the 1st Chief Ministers of Andhra and Hyderabad states respectively. . Brahmin M.P's and M.L.A's have significant numbers perhaps until the formation of Andhra Pradesh state in 1956.

Since 1956 the Reddy's have become politically dominant. Successive Chief Ministers since Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy were Reddy's until 1983. While Brahmins migration to urban centres disconnected them in the predominantly rural state from their roots (vote banks), Reddy's strength stems from their hold on lands and agriculture. With their wealth and economic dominance, Reddy's have virtually controlled the state politics. During the course of time, Reddy's consolidated their hold on Education and entered into diversified fields but always ensured the grip on their roots. The Reddy tag become so much aligned with political power in the state that, even non-Reddies started suffixing their names with Reddy. This 2nd phase was longest period of political authority by a single community. Despite PV Narasimha Rao becoming Prime Minister Brahmins virtually were out of the political power structure.

Like Reddy's, Kamma community as well come with similar socio-economic background. Being agriculturists and landlords, their main focus was movies, business and other fields than politics until late late 1970's. Kammas have had a meteoric political raise, thanks to NT Rama Rao. Since then, until the defeat of N Chandrababu Naidu in 2004, the Phase-3 of the Power shift was heavily in the hands of this community.

It is hard to say, if YS Rajasekhar Reddy years were of Reddy dominance. YSR was open and frank of his Christian Religion and during his time, apart from his own family the people who gained were mostly from the diversified communities.

It was a open secret that Chiranjeevi political entry was to assert the Kapu Community and shift the power balance. Since the death of YSR and departure of Jagan from Congress - role of Kapu community is on steady raise. Unlike Brahmins (3%), Reddy's (7%-10%)and Kamma's (3%)- Kapu's have numerical strength. With the amalgamation of sub-sects they are the single largest community in the state. Despite having fair share in Assembly and Parliament, they were more or less restricted from entering the power corridors. This was largely due to lack of the education, social and political awareness and more importantly realisation of their own strengths. Thanks to the ongoing Telengana movement, the other backwards and scheduled castes also asserting their political significance. Also during the course of past 2 decades, all the communities have become wealthy and entered into the diversified fields. The traditional land owning patterns also have started to change though, slowly.  Finally everyone in politics have mastered the art of winning the power.

Reddy community success is now more or less depends on the fortunes of Jagan Mohan Reddy. Kamma's  traditional alignment with Telugu Desam, and the emergence of Kapu's pushed them into the 3rd (or 4th) position in Congress. Even the Kamma leaders who have had the opportunity in power corridors are playing safe - for their personal gains. Unless, TDP returns to the power - Kamma's are net losers. Even if TDP is successful, Naidu cannot ignore the Kapu's who would take the large chunk of power. With internal power struggles within Nara and Nandamuri clans, once a clean party is looking very vulnerable from their own community. There is no hope for Telugu Brahmins politically in the state - mainly because they do not have a strategy and unity (this the 1st and the last community in the state to announce Telengana Brahmins associations etc).

This is the decisive phase while power shifts for the first time from forward communities to Kapus and backward communities. The trends are clear. For example, Bosta family virtually controls the north coastal Andhra Pradesh. There is no single family in the state with such a grip. Even Jagan is restricted to Kadapa only. Chiranjeevi is their lucky mascot for the community for political gains. This is already evident.

As I see, 2014 would see the dominance of Kapu's in the power corridors and already politically hypersensitive state would face more uncertainties on account of this power shift and impending power struggle.

Chiranjeevi - The Mega Disaster

Despite the persistent political chaos in Andhra Pradesh, 2011 elevated the fortunes of many leaders in the bargain politics. Without getting anything substantial even after bringing the State virtually to grinding halt for more than two months, K Chandrasekhar Rao remains the powerful political force. Lacking almost all the qualities needed to run an Indian State in the modern times, Chief Minister Kirankumar Reddy's political graph swung into a bull territory. Botsa, the new PCC chief emerged equally a powerful entity in the State political scene this year. Despite the onslaught from CBI (read Congress High Command)  YS Jaganmohan Reddy remains evergreen, dynamic, heroic and the potential political bulldozer.  Despite being in political oblivion for most of the year, fortunes of  Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have surprisingly on uptrend. KK, Kaka and VH the self proclaimed Telangana heroes have been squared up by the Delhi political bosses.

This leaves, the Megastar Chiranjeevi who moved from reasonably commanding position with in the  state political scene to a damp squib. I think, Chiranjeevi represents a text book case for any politician in the state - "how to fail?". Chiru started with a hype. Just taking a single page from NT Rama Rao meteoric raise in the politics. Just because, he was in a similar position in Tollywood as undisputed number#1 hero, like NTR - Chiru thought that he could repeat the same magic and become the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. Chiru is not NTR let it be on silver screen or in politics.

NTR had a clear vision. His vision stems from the then prevailing pathetic political scenario in AP. Unlike Chiranjeevi, NTR was a learned man. He was emotional yet had lot of clarity. He was eccentric yet, there was consistency. He was independent yet, a first class leader. He dared to challenge, worked against odds and delivered to the people on promises. He attracted the young and talented. Finally, NTR cultivated his political base - predominately around the backward classes who until then had no political representation in the state Though he had his own share of failures, on the balance - NTR status is legendary.

Chiranjeevi had no vision. His ambition was to become Chief Minister with out cultivation of a strong political base. Despite coming from a numerously strong Kapu Community, Chiru was defeated in his political heartland - Palacole. Chiru was emotional but had no vision. He could not convey a meaningful message. Unlike NTR, this time Chiru was facing perhaps two of the strongest political leaders in YSR and CBN. Chiru's understanding of social, political and cultural history of Andhra Pradesh was below the par of a X class student. By any measure he is not a learned man. Chiru, did not have stamina and conviction that he could make it to the top. He basically took a gamble around his screen image. He sold his brand name and in the process made a personal fortune for himself. In this internet era, Chiru's Public relation skills are at best counter productive.

Nurturing and cultivating a political base is key for a Leaders' success (Manmohan Singh is no exception though his political base is just around a single square plot of land - 10, Janpath). Even the so called modern mass leader, Y S Rajasekhar Reddy is no exception. He toiled hard for decades and cultivated his own political back yard regionally, on caste and religious lines, and at the national level.

Election records clearly indicate that, but for Chiranjeevi entry Congress would have lost 2009 elections. Then with his 18 member elected MLA count, Chiru saved Kiran Kumar Reddy Government in 2011. The Two big services to the AP state!. In the process, from a position of the Leader of a political party, he zeroed himself to nothing. Even Majlis with a mere strength of 5 members know better of bargaining politics than novice Chiranjeevi.

Now, Chiranjeevi ambitions have zeroed to a Cabinet post either at Delhi or in Hyderabad. Chiranjeevi despite all the public display of his comical statements and emotions does not understand the Congress and Delhi High Command. Congress in a nutshell is a Trading Party. This means, one should bring something on the table - to get something back in return. Ajit Singh brought 5 MP's and a huge percentage of votes that would add up to Congress in upcoming UP elections. Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi or Mamata Benerjee all have something to trade - otherwise a constant threat to government and it's survival.

Chiranjeevi and his 18 numbers have no real value. Congress can easily buy them off at any time. Chiranjeevi does not have a political base (like Majlis), Political acumen (like PV), brand integrity (like Manmohan Singh), backroom maneuvering skills (Kavuri or Rayapati), mass following (like KCR), money (like Lagadapati or Jagan) and finally with in his own Kapu Community he is not even the strongest leader (like Botsa). This leaves Chiranjeevi with the tainted silver screen legacy. When the next elections come up, Chiru is not even a guaranteed crowd puller (perhaps, he will have to compete with the likes of NTR Jr, who is a better orator by yards).

In summary, if there is no intrinsic value to put on the table and trade - with in Congress party there won't be any value or recognition. Unless something extraordinary happens, 2011 marks the end of Chiranjeevi political career. He may dream of Cabinet berths but High Command would not bless with anything substantial. Chiranjeevi is in no better position than the "intelligent" lawyer he played in one of his blockbuster movie Abhilasha. Ironically, the screen name also was Chiranjeevi.

It is a Mega disaster!

Jagan Success, Corruption and Future

Indrasena Reddy, Samasinha Reddy, Adi Kesava Reddy and now Jaganmohan Reddy!. I loved watching the first three Reddy's on the Tollywood Screens. Today, we have seen the fourth Reddy, Jagan in the real life. Challenge, action and job done! Even his die hard followers would not have anticipated this spectacular result. This is the result Jagan cannot even sustain or repeat even in the next election. Call it hard work, alternative option, money magic, Kadapa bomb culture or credibility of the family - the result once for all cemented many open questions until now are the platform for debates.

As I said in my one of my earlier blogs, not many political personalities survived challenging, Nehru's or Gandhi's (from Mahatma Gandhi to Sonia Gandhi). That element of fear was seen even in YS Rajasekhar Reddy - and hence he always attributed all his political success and political survival to I, R and S Gandhi's. Jagan took a different path. Challenged Sonia Gandhi in public and then unlike any other politician in the contemporary politics (unprecedented)- resigned for the MP position and along with his mother Vijayalakshmi's MLA seat, came out in public and fought a real war. This is no simple battle. For all others, it is one of their elections battles. For Jagan it is do or die situation. Had he lost the election or won with any thing but huge margin - his political career is finished. By all means, he proved to be honest and upfront in his fight. Despite, 18 Cabinet Ministers of the state camping in Kadapa along with Kiran Kumar Reddy personal interest under Sonia Gandhi watch, Jagan won against huge odds. Well done!

Now coming to question of how Jagan won the election. The Telugu Desam Party and their Yellow media might say it his illegally earned money that won him the seat. According to the accounts Rs 300 Crores was spent in the campaign. Of that even assuming Jagan's share is 50%, the rest is spent by TDP and Congress. There is no doubt that, even that money is unaccounted or black money since Election rules does not permit spending beyond certain limit. Basicaly all all black sheep and Jagan's colour is a little dark.

Now coming to the Jagan's wealth and meteoric raise, I  liked the explanation given by Vundavalli Arun Kumar in "Open Heart with RK" (one of the best programs to watch basically due to Vemuri Radhakrishna's lucid style).

Incidentally Arun Kumar, a 2nd term MP from Rajahmundry -  was a staunch follower of YS Rajasekhar Reddy, but now having a soured relationship with Jagan was attacked by YSR Congress and Jagan coterie. Coming to the point, Vundavalli clearly explained the difference between Ramoji Rao and YS Jaganmohan Reddy wealth and why Jagan is legally correct even though Technically (by Dharma) could be wrong. However, neither Eenadu nor Chandrababu Naidu would stop continue their assault (though their origins were lot worse than Jagan's). (I am not supporting Jagan in any way. But my view that all these politicians are corrupt does not need any special attention for Jagan as an issue)

Now coming to the future - if attaining success is a challenge, sustaining is going to be even more a gigantic task. For all, we have seen Jagan is less a politician and more a firebrand Leader. Probably his assets could be like his father credibility and trust. The clear verdict would be a disaster for Congress. How Telugu Desam is going to revive would depend more on Jagan's strategic mistakes than Chandrababu Naidu Chanakya neethi. Though at the outset TRS is happy with Jagan's win with the hope that a decision on Telangana would be taken, Jagan like his father would not support bifurcation. With Mamata Benerjee and Jayalalithaa in power any state bifurcation would have serious resistance from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu due cascading effects. The only serious possibility of TRS merging with Congress also look a feeble option.

With this election, I think for the first time - since 1983 election - YSR family established itself as the first political family of the state, displacing Nadamuri-Nara families. With even spread of Reddy's across the state, YS Jagan vote bank and appeal would be strongest across the state than any other leader. With Naidu struggling with Telangana revolt internally, Congress without any leaders, Brand Jagan is perfectly placed to take a jolly ride. Will he succeed or how much, time only would tell.

From 13th May 2011, Andhra Pradesh politics, political equations and political power changed forever by a the real life Kadapa Reddy

Kadapa and Pulivendula fight to Finish

No single election would have ever decided the future of so many politicians and political parties in Andhra Pradesh state. For winners and losers their future would never be same again - and here comes mother of all political battles, Kadapa and Pulivendula.

Let's start with YS Jaganmohan Reddy (today officially declared the richest politician in India). If he and his mother Vijayalakshmi could not win both the seats - for now Jagan political future is over. For all the firebrand displays, the muscle power and the mobilization of resources - this is the worst outcome. He would be deserted by everyone including his closed and most vocal supporters. Jagan would be attacked at his business foundations and it would be impossible for him to survive the mighty congress and Yellow Media onslaught. The biggest beneficiaries of this outcome: Ramoji Rao (Eenadu) and Vemuri Radha Krishna (Andhra Jyothy) as their media empire can pip Sakshi. For Congress and TDP on the whole it would not be any major impact - since Jagan would be written off as a flash.

If Telugu Desam Party, after all the search light operations to find a "candidate" looses both the seats to YSR Congress - it is the beginning to the end of Telugu Desam Party. Already beaten out off Telangana Region, Chandrababu Naidu could forget his dreams of 2014. Having seen the recent "proxy" revolt from Harikrishna and Nandamuri family (less Balakrishna), the key question would be "who will revive this party and bring it back to the glory days of NTR". Naidu would be a liability than an asset by any measure both for party, sympathisers and Telugu people as well. This is in a way, second best option for the Congress Party (if it comes second in the order). It can join with the Telangana Rasta Samithi (TRS) leader KCR and achieve the common objective of finishing TDP once for all. With Jagan's victory, there will be huge exodus from TDP & Congress. The time would have arrived for emergence of a true Leader with in TDP not a political manipulator like Naidu. In way, it is good for TDP provided - if a leader emerges out of the political chaos. Biggest beneficiaries of this out come: K Chandrasekhar Rao

Going by indications, the likelihood of TDP winning even a single seat is at odds. However, if out of magic - in case TDP could beat YSR Congress and Congress to win one seat, and YSR Congress wins other seat -  then Andhra and Rayalaseema politics would be further fragmented. This does not help TDP revival in Telangana. There are no immediate winners or beneficiaries. But the biggest looser will be Kiran Kumar Reddy and D Shrinivas

The worst scenario is Congress winning both the seats. This will push state into further crisis. Already limping with worst administration and absence of political leadership - it would be impossible to stop Congress leaders. In a way, this is end of YSR Congress and Jagan. For TDP, Naidu may play a tone that the party never held any grip in this part of state (only if it comes second above YSR congress). YS Rajasekhara Reddy legacy is now transferred to Congress. And all Congress leaders at Hyderabad and Delhi will make it a point to finish any of YSR credible legacy into history (like it happened with PV Narasimha Rao). Biggest beneficiaries: TDP rebels and TDP Telengana leaders.

As it is generally predicted at this point, if YSR Congress wins both the seats -then without any doubt, both Congress and Telugu Desam Party would plunge into crisis. With no hope of TDP winning 2014, all equations will shift. All the fence sitters in both the parties, would come out in open. Congress high command for the first time since 1983 (after NTR shock victory), would see the biggest threat to its solid power base. And for Congress it will be beginning to end of Government in Delhi. No Congress Government formed in Delhi, without winning Andhra Pradesh. And Congress knows this - and hence it is investing all the time and energy to avoid the debacle. Biggest looser: "Prince" Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister in waiting.

Without any doubt, Kadapa and Pulivendula elections are fight to finish. Strangely, the out come of the result in either way - would not have any impact on the political fortunes of YS Vivekananda Reddy, DL Ravindra Reddy or  other candidates. Everyone knows, they are just pawns in the larger political game.

For one thing, YS Jagan must be admired for his guts to take on two powerful parties.

Disastrous Launch to Jaganmohan Reddy Political Career

First came King's tragic death, followed by the Prince's onslaught. Despite all the intense pressure, Prince could not be crowned. All the strategies ended in a huge disaster and perhaps in embarrassment. Probably, in a span of five weeks, the power hungry Prince ruined the reputation and image of the king - YS Rajasekhara Reddy that was build over decades of hard work and political struggle.

If the Krishna floods diverted the attention from the five week hype - now with Rosaiah's consolidation process - the political future of Jagan looks very fragile and may be bleak.

Sonia Gandhi and High Command have given enough indication that Rosaiah would be the Chief Minister for this term of assembly. Unless, Rosaiah commits any huge blunder - nothing significant is going to change.

By informed advise or his own wisdom, Jagan decided to play truce with the High Command for now. What will happen?

As I said in my earlier blog, return of another Congress government in 2014 is hugely unlikely. In the end, though it all depends on the political acumen of Chandrababu Naidu, it is a huge challenge to beat the incumbency. If Rosaiah & company could make it, that will be the end of Chandrababu Naidu's political career.

This will mean, Jagan cannot think of any opportunity until 2019. Between now and then, when we are talking of a decade - political landscape would change dramatically.

With this disastrous political launch, Jagan's political credibility is now a nadir and it is only a matter of time that alternative power centres would emerge and dilute the influence of Jagan in the Andhra Political scene. High Command is going to teach a lesson or two for all those who "over acted" in favour of Jagan. This is the story now developing into headlines.

In the end, it looks like - Jagan will have to follow the same path of his father, moving from Kadapa to Delhi to Hyderabad. In the process become closer to High Command and PM in waiting "Rahul" (like his father moved with Rajiv) and eventually become Chief minister of Andhra Pradesh at last, at some point of time.

However, unlike his father, Jagan does not have patience, and I would be surprised if another onslaught is made against Rosaiah's Government and High Command. Will that be a googly or a hit wicket? Let's wait and see.

Jagan Verses Congress High Command - Now it is only one Winner

Nearly four weeks after the demise of Dr Y S Rajaskehara Reddy, battles lines are drawn in AP Congress. As I said, Congress high command in Delhi does not want to crown Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. And YS Jagan does not want to settle for anything less.

Meanwhile, it is very clear that slowly but surely the new Chief Minister Konijeti Rosaiah is establishing himself in his own style. So far he avoided all the controversies. With the emergence of KK, DS and VH, Rosaiah is getting on to his serious business while high command is taking on the battle with YS Jagan Mohan Reddy through the proxies.

As the emotions fizzle out, many people who are sitting on the fence would soon join the KK, DS and VH gang. Since YSR death - slowly but surely opposition of Jagan claim for CM position is building up.

While the KK, DS and VH camp is coming from the high command mandate, as the days goes by - Jagan is loosing his ground at Delhi. And getting a foot hold in Delhi is not a small effort. And getting the ears and eyes of Madam Sonia and his political advisor Ahmed Patel is becoming increasing distant. It is likely a communication breakdown scenario between high command and Jagan.

This is where Jagan made the fundamental mistake. The Delhi's "power" blessing is the key for a Congress leader to establish his position in the state. (As we see, this is what happening with Rosaiah). YSR realised this after a life long political experience. All the occasions prior to 2004, when YSR came very close to the CM gaddi - but lost the opportunity only because - his did not have Delhi blessings. And YSR realised this importance all the more during the tenure of PV Narasimha Rao when he was virtually sidelined (became a political orphan).

After many set backs, YSR understood two things. People Power and Power of Delhi Blessings! He carefully nurtured both and taken a bottoms up and top down approach

Hence, despite becoming virtually independent during the past 5 years, he never worked against high command nor he let down the people who looked after him.

Now, Jagan is thinking just the people (or mass) who are coming to him would give the power in the state. If that is the route Jagan is likely to follow (as it stands truce with Delhi looks very unlikely unless some on in Delhi can do a miracle) then he is likely to break away from Congress. In this scenario - either Jagan or Congress can only be a winner or both could be losers and Telugu Desam Party would be the winner. With two successive Congress government, it is impossible to return another Congress government in the state. And it is foolish to underestimate Chandrababu Naidu and his political acumen.

Against these adversaries, if Jagan can make it - he would be a national hero. We can write obituary for Congress in the state.

What ever happens for now, the winner - with out any doubt is Konijeti Rosaiah. With 50+ years of political experience, Rosaiah knows well how another politician crowned under similar circumstances - PV Narasimha Rao ruled a country for 5 years and changed it's destiny. I am sure Rosaiah would not leave any opportunity and foot prints of legacy.

Truth About Why Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is NOT made CM?

It is now more are less clear that YS Jagan Mohan Reddy would not be the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh in near future. High Command at 10, Janpath decided against Jagan and yet, giving "Strong" indications that Jagan would be "groomed" into a strong Leader. Like a saying goes in Mahabharata "there are 1000 reasons for Karna's death" we can see 1000 reasons why Jagan is not crowned today Of them, if over reaction from Jagan's group is seen as a most acceptable reason, "Jagan is not yet ready for the leadership role" is the least acceptable. Between these two, AP Media is finding another 998 reasons.

I will explain the main reason why Jagan mohan Reddy is NOT made CM.

Leaders are born but they are not made. Like YS Rajasekhar Reddy, YS Jagan is a natural leader. I won't get into too many examples. For once, if we take the way Jagan came up with Sakshi and effectively neutralized the AP media, it clearly shows his leadership skills.

Secondly, in the past week are so, CM's Camp Office has virtually become Hyderabad's 10, Janpath. From the Chief Minister to every one who is who in the state are visiting Jagan (for darshan). Jagan is "dealing" with them on "equal terms". Jagan spoke very little since the sad demise of his father. Most of the work is done behind the closed doors by his trusted people like - KVP Ramachandra Rao. Thus, the 10, Janpath message that Jagan is required to be groomed is only a non-confronting message to avoid direct conflict at this time.

It is said publicly, in Hyderabad, AP and over the media that YS Rajasekhar Reddy got free hand only because he is a Christian and Madam Sonia is keen to promote him. If this logic is true then Jagan would be have been made CM already. That also did not happen. Even, if Sonia promoted YSR in the name of religion, she does not want to promote YSJ for the same reason.

We have seen enough evidence both in public and also, with the Congress party that there is strong support in favour of YSJ. This also did not impress Congress High Command.

What is that core committee of Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Ahmad Patel, Pranab Mukherjee, AK Anthony etc are thinking? Well, they wanted to avoid handing over the power to Y S Jaganmohan Reddy at any cost.

At the time of untimely and sad demise of Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy - he was at pinnacle of his power, undisputed leader in Andhra Pradesh and perhaps one of the strongest Congress leaders in India. He ensured twice, a Congress government to stand at Centre. As a matter of fact, this time - Mr Singh and Mrs Gandhi's power is directly on account of the huge numbers YSR delivered. At this rate, if YSR were alive - he would have "cut" or "extremely limited" the Delhi power for vote pulling in AP. The days like, mass voting for Indiramma are essentially over and Soniamma is not same - in front of YSR charisma!

Though he was naming all welfare schemes in the name of Rajiv or India - benefactors in the state are clearly seeing all those are boons by YSR than Sonia or Congress. Then, YSR "crushed" every Congress politician who was against him the state. In a nutshell Yeduguri Sandhinti Rajasekhar Reddy was almost unconquerable but for his death. This is not acceptable to Congress High command.

Thus, untimely death of YSR is an opportunity - to cut the YSR Group. Limit the power. Ensure growth of alternative power centres. Let the groupisms grow and fighting take politicians again to Delhi durbar for meditations and settlements.

If YSJ is made CM, it is not difficult for YSJ to continue the legacy of his late father. Everything is in tact both politically, administratively with strong business links. Just at 37, if YSJ now becomes the CM and bring another success in 2014 - then the Delhi influence would wane forever. This is a disaster for Congress High command.

At the same time, Congress High Command cannot risk antagonising Y S Jagan at this point as his political, business and monetary muscle is at it's best. By denying him the power now, Delhi can effectively reduce the influence and in the process - bring the state politics into their grip.

It is true that there is no leader in Andhra Pradesh today to match the charisma of Y S Jagan mohan Reddy. Rosaiah could manage this Assembly term but he cannot lead the state for the next elections victory. All other "tall" leaders are doubtful about their own win. This known to all Congress workers, MLA's and MP's in the state - and yet, High Command pretends as thought they have other choice when there is nothing other than loosing next election (and potentially power at Delhi thus delaying Rahul Gandhi crowing).

After all it is all about the Power and when there is an excellent opportunity for 10, Janpath - they would not loose the opportunity to let go.

In the coming weeks and months we will see what kind of politician Y S Jagan mohan Reddy is in making to keep the political grip intact with in state. In the end, 10 Janpath may delay but cannot deny from CM Gaddi. What are the losses for congress and Jagan in the state would be known in 2014.

Telugu Desam Party - And It's Long Term Decay Part-II

From 2004, when TDP became opposition, both party and the leadership failed to understand the reasons for the defeat fully. With Eenadu first and then Andhra Jyothy starting direct attack almost immediately against the YS Rajasekhar Reddy government, Chandra Babu Naidu viewed world through these two papers only. At the same time, having realised that too much focus on Technology sector costed them dearly, CBN made some feable attempts to adddress the groups he ignored, specially farmers.

Meanwhile, the Telangana became an emotional issue. Congress having won with the alliance of the Telangana Rastra Smithi (TRS) moved the decision on Telangana into a perennial and complex loops. Congress party in the state was split and it turned imotional. As weeks and years passed, it essentially became emotional war between YSR Group and the rest in the Congress party.

As political heat reached pinnacle on Telangana issue, Naidu was in a deep dialemma as he was never in favour of a seperate state. Telugu Desam was symbol of unified Andhra Pradesh. But, as Congress was battling out in the charged environment, canny Naidu seen an opportunity as he was put under deep pressure with in the party by the then top leaders like Devender Goud. Finally, when Goud left the party in the name of Telengana, Naidu's options were getting limited. Sensing the political style of Naidu, many top leaders from other regions have also started deserting the party. And, Babu looked very vulnerable and succummed to the pressure. On fine day, he took a disasterous decision in favour of Telengana and most disastrously, joined hands with TRS - whose credibility was hitting all time low.

Naidu's campaign for the political mileage was also deeply fractured. He was always reactive to the decisions of the Congress government than being proctive in addressing the issues that were faced by poor, working class and farming. It was so ironic that, when the inflation reached all time high before the elections, Naidu's failed to highlight the plight through the party campaigns and rather left the propaganda to Eenadu and Andhra Jyothy. This probably is the case, with most of the issues that would have helped Naidu to gain political mileage in the course of 5 years of Congress rule.

With the arrival of Loksatta and Prajarajyam Parties, Naidu and TDP landed in identity crisis. With Chiranjeevi drawing huge crowds at rallies and road shows, Naidu was a worried man and started looking to counter the image of Megastar. He brought Nandamuri Balakrishna and NTR Jr to the campaign but in the end both these star campaigers failed midway. But CBN failed to realise, YS Rajasekhar Reddy was very cool and instead of looking for cine glamour, he was working seriously on fundamentals. Panicked, Naidu announced cash transfer schemes and free colour TV's in a desperate attempt to attract the core voters, who he thought were not getting attracted to TDP or going away. Congress came back with credibility slogan and successfully passed on the message that these are mare poll gimmick's and given the evidence on how he scrapped Rs2/Kg rice schemes.

TDP, slowly but surely became a family party. Nandamuri family - Balakrishna, Harikrishna, NTR Jr, Taraka Ratna, Kalyana Ram and Naidu's son - Lokesh Naidu became the core team and public face of the party. Only outsider, Roja proved to be a liability for the party. Added to this, Naidu's autocratic style and poor listening skills - made many top leaders to leave the party in favour of PRP, TRS or Congress. It might be pertinent to note that it was TDP, which lost huge number of top and long standing leaders than any other party prior to the 2009 elections.

Naidu's decision to form the mahakootami or Grand Alliance of the four parties with fundamental idealogical differences on many core issues was the fatal errror. This firmly moved TDP away from it's core idealogies and it became too obvious that, Naidu was in a panic and desperate mode to gain the power and deny Congress or YSR another term.

Finally when the d-day came, Naidu lost the elections.

With two successive elections defeats and huge shift from the party idealogies on which party was formed more than 25 years ago, TDP is now a party in decay mode. Nara Chandrababu Naidu lives in a state of denial and never accepts responsibility for this disaster. While he was Chief Minister he fired a number of officials for simple mistakes and made them accountable. But, why he does not apply same rule when he ruined the party?

Naidu suffers from several complexities. He used the name of NT Rama Rao and his children but, he never subscribed to NTR's vision or idealogies while in power or outside.

With arrival of PRP, though it suffered badly in the elections, with 17% share - PRP is going to be a big challenger for the TDP in next elections. From the messages that are coming from Chiru- it is clear that Megastar accepted the resposibility for the debacle, and promised to look deep into the issues and address them. If that happens, Chiru's political graph is going to raise. Chiru already sidelined his brothers and probably remove Allu Aravind as public face of the party. Unfortunately, CBN wanted to bring his son Lokesh Naidu (to counter YS Jaganmohan Reddy), and keep Nadamuri clan as his campaign ammunition. If N Jayaprakash Narayan lives up to his words and delivers at Kukatpally and in Assmembly, many of the TDP voters would move away from this party in favour of Lok Satta.

For those people who consider TDP is their (Kamma) Party or those who are with in the party and committed to the success of TDP in 2014, or for all those party sympathisers - it is time to think and consider that Nara Chandrababu Naidu is not the right person to lead the party for such a grand victory.

Naidu is a basically a good Manager or a Back room operator. But he is not Leader who can lead the party and take responsibility for failures as well as for victories. What party needs is to, revisit and revitalise the core idealogies and campaign on the same principles in today context as NT Rama Rao faught for the gretest victory in 1983.

After watching Naidu from the front for 15 years, I am sure he is not the right person. In the end it is choice between survival / revival of TDP and Naidu as a leader. If the later is the choice, then Party decay going into acceleration mode.

Telugu Desam Party - And It's Long Term Decay Part-I

Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is a great political party of significant consequence in the history of Andhra Pradesh. Started in 1983 by legendary Tollywood hero NT Rama Rao, it changed the political landscape of the state by bringing political alternatives to the voters and giving a genuine recognition to the Telugu community all over the world. Needless, to say - Telugu People along with Kannadigas, Malayalees were all madrasis until then. Apart from bringing an identity and self respect to Telugus, TDP was also responsible for bringing good governance and accountability for the political class that was disappearing by early 1980's.

This blog is going to discuss in two parts, why Telugu Desam Party is loosing it's political relevance and expediting it's long term decay by getting away from the core ideologies on which the party was founded.

TDP, when it was found fundamentally worked on the four or five broad political principles. First, identity and respect of the Telugu speaking people, second - working towards upliftment of the poor, downtrodden classes and farmers, third - giving alternative and respectable political choice to politicians and clean administration to the citizens and finally social welfare. I think, the founder of the party during his turbulent years in the office largely succeeded on all the aspects and became a popular leader in his life time for the services.

History of TDP is split into two halfs. While the first half was run on the founder ideologies, the second half slowly and clealy moved away from the founder ideologies and taken a reformist view.

During the first half of the TDP rule - Rs 2/Kg rice schemes, mid day meals, promoting the Telugu language and Telugu identity, banning the cheap liquor that was ruining the lives of the poor and working classes, reforming and maintaining Hindu Temples (specially Tirupathi Temple), bestowing political life to many unknown political entities and raising their stakes significantly, working towards bringing political alliances to counter Congress government of the day, making Hyderabad free from the periodic communal violence, bringing clean and sleek administration are by all means are historic and significant contributions of the party to the state.

The second half of the TDP rule was under the stewardship of the NT Rama Rao's son-in-law, Nara Chandrababu Naidu - who deposed the founder from the power in bloodless coup. CBN, Babu or Naidu as he is called, initially taken a view that he took over the power - just to save the party as it was under severe "threat". However, as he established himself - CBN moved away from the political ideologies of the party and became reformist Chief Minister and was branded as the best chief Minister of any state of the times with a great vision.

CBN best contribution to the state was - Hyderabad became a Technology capital and true alternative choice to Bangalore. He brought e-Governance and ensured that Technology is widely used with the government from statistics to demo's. CBN became darling for the reformists as AP became perhaps the first state in India to bring reforms in Power and Electricity. Government attracted huge investments and Naidu was able to pitch the state at Davos and World bank for investments and funds. Naidu also started some of the pet projects like Janmabhoomi and the success of those schemes was mixed. During Naidu rule, the real estate in the state reached pinncacle and made many neo-rich.

During the course of 9 year rule, Babu clearly moved away from the territories where NT Rama Rao made foundations for the party. By 2004, when N Chandra Babu Naidu was badly defeated by Congress in the state elections, he remained a darling of Technology community while he moved away from farmers, working class, state government employees who formed the biggest and influential vote bank for the party. By aligning with BJP, Naidu also lost the faith of the minority communities who were actually very favourable to TDP, as it protected their interests.

If we see the history of TDP from 1983 till 2004, the party essentially lost it's core ideologies in preference to immediate political opportunities. In 2004, when TDP lost the power - it essentially ended with identity crisis both in state and national politics. At the national level, where CBN played a powerful kingmaker in 1998-2001 period lost all his friends - by going first with third front, then with BJP, then again going back to Third front and then aiming to form a fourth front. All in all, TDP under the leadership of CBN proved to be fickle and in the course of time left out as an orphan and small regional party of no significance.

At the state level, 2004 defeat was an excellent opportunity to for TDP to reinvent itself. But - unfortunately, TDP failed to do any self introspection nor identified the fit falls in the political ideologies. Instead, it started the Opposition role with significantly reduced numbers with two fundamental mistakes.

First, it concluded that the YS Rajasekhar Reddy got the power by accident. Second, from the day one - it assumes I am good boy and Congress - you are a bad boy. What TDP failed to realise was Congress got back to power by grabbing or hijacking the very core social welfare ideologies of the Telugu Desam Party. For example, YSR promised - free power to farmers and Naidu went on questioning the state finances and the will of the Government. But YSR proved during the five years that he could deliver what he had promised. On second issue, it was a blend of ignorance and arrogance that made Babu to portray with the help of Eenadu and Andhra Jyothy that, I am good and Congress is bad. What Babu failed to understand even after five years was, Congress may be Bad, but he was not Good as he was trying to idealise himself.

.......................More in Part - II

AP Elections 2009: And Now, Next Five Years

Well, Results have come and what I have said in my blog on 13th April even before elections have started have come true (Please see: http://inmymotherland.blogspot.com/2009/04/ap-elections-2009who-will-be-winner.html).


Congress retained power and Telugu Desam bitten dust.

Prajarajyam Party, I think did a commendable performance as we cannot keep on comparing the heroics of NT RamaRao. Probably it could have done even better if Magastar Chiranjeevi took the leadership than delegating key decisions to his brother in law Allu Aravind. Looks like he now realised the mistake and allegations that rocked the party


As I explained in my blogs, the loss of Telugu Desam Party is due to lack of credibility with Chandrababu Naidu. It is proved once again that CBN is a day dreamer. His dreams come through the writings of Eenadu and Ramoji Rao. He thinks they are gospel truth. He goes by his Political Guru's advise and now that he had bitten twice, I think CBN only way out is to be become more realistic and stop seeing the world through Ramoji Rao.

Unless there is some solid shakeup - perhaps removing CBN from top, I think Telugu Desam Party is not going to be a winner in 2014 elections. After all, Chandrababu Naidu must take responsibilty for defeat and cannot hide himself under the name of analysis. Will he do? No. Even if he wants - where is the alternative. Babu ensured that there is no No#2 in party and Lokesh Naidu is too young for that job now.


Now congratulations to Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy. He is the real life hero. He took the biggest challenges and risked his political life in this elections and emerged winner. Even if Chandrababu Naidu cannot take personal responsibility for the TDP performance, people by and large can give credit to YSR for this stunning victory and YSR can claim heads up victory. Ruling a Congress government in Andhra Pradesh is not an easy job. But now looking forward, for YSR - another 5 years rule is looking very easy now.


YS Rajasekhar Reddy comes to the power with advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and challenges. His biggest advantage is all those his bitter critics have lost elections. Thus, he is going to become strongest Congress Leader in the state history. This is his disadvantage as well. Now, his eyes cannot see and ears can listen. Hence, unless he is realistic and sensitive to issues - he will end up paying heavy price for his mistakes. YSR also must remember, it is Prajarajyam Party that helped a lot to secure his victory and it could be possible that same PRP may secure his defeat in 2014 elections.


On opportunities, with Congress government at Centre, and by sending maximum Congress MP numbers from any state in India, YSR can do lot to Andhra Pradesh. In the ceased loksabha despite having numbers, Andhra Pradesh MP's could not get anything significant for the state - while Tamil Nadu could extract even the last blood drop with no signficant numbers. Specially in terms of getting Railway budgets and development of Telengana and North Coastal Andhra in terms of utilities will have big opportunity.


Biggest challenge for YSR is his chaotic state administration. Unlike CBN who was credited with efficient administration, YSR failed to deliver. In this second term, he may look at this with care and ensure that clean administration is provided for citizens. Second challenge would on the corruption allegations. The fact that he returned to power does not absolve him from the repeated allegations. Finally, nepotism and favouritism must be checked at reasonable limits.

Finally for Prajarajyam - if the right moves are made - I believe it is the next party to challenge the Congress in 2014 elections. It is clear that TDP is in decay. Already it lost most of the leaders and now it suffers from strategic blunders. Any deviation from the current thinking, would make TDP even vulnerable. Unlike TDP, PRP can build long term strategy and move up in the power chain as long as Chiranjeevi comes out the reel world and become realistic to deal with the people issues. And this is not difficult for Chiranjeevi since he worked very hard from grassroots to reach pinnacle in silver screen. Also, despite all allegations agaist the PRP - no one said personally anything against Megastar.

The fate of Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) is ceased. With a maverick brother, KCR and sister, Vijayashanti alias Ramulamma in parliament with no power to influence, TRS cannot do much in the coming years. Having had the experience with TRS last time, Congress would not let them come any closer with any demands. It is probably difficult for TRS to keep the MLA's in its fold as they, along with TRS cadre see Chandradekhar Rao as a liability.

5 years may be too long - but it is the time to start working either to retain or regain power.

AP Elections 2009:::Who will be the Winner?

We are almost there -- ready to put the ballot and give verdict. All the major parties are now in the last stages of smear campaign. All the news papers (Eenadu, Andhra Jyothy or Sakshi) aligned to the respective political outfits are making their own last minute "stories" to demoralise the opposition parties or taking the winner flag for their patrons.

Andhra Pradesh voters are neither naive nor innocent. These voters have grown smarter since 1997 when they made a "canny" mistake of voting for Indira Gandhi while whole country went enmasse and voted for the Janata Party. But, two years down the line, it is Andhra Pradesh voters who proved smarter as Janata Party send the nation into serious political crisis. Perhaps the vision of the state voters when it comes to stability cannot be underestimated.

When to pick up NT Rama Rao or ditch chandra Babu Naidu or welcome Rajasekhar Reddy is known to the voters in the state.

Now that we are at the closing stages of the campaign, most of the voters have made up their mind for the ballot. How do the voters decide and vote? At a very crude level, it is caste and religion plays the role. Surprising it is the Hyderabad area that generally decides on the religious lines than anywhere in the state. Muslim voters always go and vote for Majlis - for security and protection rather than any other significant factor. Their natural political enemy is BJP. But, today BJP lacks a strong leadership who could secure the Hindu voters. Perhaps this election is now bringing the new agena - Telengana when the old city Muslim friends go for vote. For them, today surprisingly Congress is the saviour than anyother party since it is not in favour of Telengana and Majlis and Muslims do not want a seperate state. Also, with huge Coastal Andhra / Rayalaseema Voters- Telengana sentiment is not going to work for any winner in Hyderabad Metro area. Clearly the winner will be Congress and Majlis. Unfortunately for Chandra Babu Naidu and TDP it is a double blow. First, CBN is now with Mahakootami and in favour of Telengana. Secondly, top leaders in this area like Davender Goud have deserted the party.

Coastal Andhra is now the swing region and perhaps going to decide the next Chief Minister. The main problem is - deep troubles with in the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP). It is always expected that - PRP and Chiranjeevi is going to very well in East and West Godavari districts with huge Kapu vote bank and also "son of the soil" sentiment. But, PRP is today facing self inflicted wounds as host of leaders are leaving the party - abusing Chiranjeevi and Allu Aravind - of Nepotism, Corruption and favoutitism. This is too much for a party at this nascent stages. Now, the question is - where do these voters go? They have a choice between Congress and TDP only. Why should I vote for Congresss? First, it comes with strong leadership unlike TDP which is on a shaky "alliance" with no compelling agenda for Coastal voters. May be Congress decision not to go with a seperate state will help to influence the voters to Congress. Second, of all the politicians in the state it is CBN who proved to be least trustworthy (along with his today's friend KCR). Knowing a person who was darling of reforms, it is hard to trust or vote for him in this new "welfare" avatar. Last, TDP wounded the Madiga community and humiliated them more than Rajasekhar Reddy. Now, this vote bank is clearly away from TDP. All, in all Congress will gain from the pains of PRP and unstable Mahakootami.

Rayalaseema is just four districts and of them Kadapa is off limits to all parties except Congress. It is Rajasekhar Reddy bastion. With the entry of his powerful son Jaganmohan Reddy - the play is strongly with Congress. In other disctricts - other than Chittoor, where TDP will make in roads rest of the region is going to be tough for TDP on account of it's deserted leaders from Reddy and BC communities. I will be surprised over all if TDP can make any gains here. With Chiranjeevi positioning in Tirupathi - existing votes will be split both from TDP and Congress.

Both in Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra it is the strength of TDP that will decide - the winner since TRS and Communiusts are dummies in this region.

Lastly Telangana, this is the place where TDP made it's biggest political blunder. If it had not gone with TRS - it would have done very well - compared to last elections. It is the image of Kalvakuntla Chandrasekhar Rao that is going to cost TDP this election. There are two leaders who are facing serious public allegation on corrption / sales of MP and MLA tickets. One of them is KCR and other is Allu Aravind. While I question CBN's seriousness about seperate state, I am convinced that KCR does not want Telengana. If it comes his story is finished. Communists will make gains in this region due to seat sharing. Congresss appears to be in a strong position from where it was couple of years back when Telangana sentiment made situation very emotional. The strength of Congress in this region is it's leaders with strong cadre while TDP lost it in the course of five years.

BJP is the net looser and perhaps. The emerging star with significant vote bank will be Loksatta - but not more than couple of seats.

Well, I think Congress is the winner in the election. It might get between 135-170 seats. Top end or bottom end is decided by PRP rather than Mahakootami.

Let's wait and see!

AP Elections 2009::: Top sins of YSR's Congress Government

Sanctity of Hindu Temples: Tirupathi and Tirumala Temple authority (TTD) was notorious for corruption and mismanagement until 1983. NT Rama Rao changed the face of the TTD Temples along with all the other major in Andhra Pradesh. For good number of years - even during the tenure of Chandra Babu Naidu (CBN), Andhra Pradesh Temples remained pilgrims friendly with corruption and mismanagement challenged effectively. But, during the past 5 years of Congress rule, TTD and other temples have regained their infamous glories and mastered the art of systematic mismanagement. Endowments department joined the hands with corrupt officials in the temples and went many steps beyond, even to sell or encroach the temple lands in the state. Today, a visit to any renowned temple in the state would tell the state of rampant corruption and mismanagement. Top marks to Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy Government for systematically ruining the sanctity of the Hindu Temples in less than 5 years.



Telugu Pride "Atmagowravam": Congress bitten the dust in 1983 when the Congress leaders mortgaged the pride of Telugus in Delhi. Old habits die hard. The Begumpet airport had two terminals - of them domestic terminal was aptly named after NT Ramarao and the international terminal after Rajiv Gandhi. When the airport moved to Shamshabad, YS Rajasekhar Reddy government decided to drop NTR name despite wide spread opposition from all quarters. Again to please Delhi and Sonia Gandhi, YSR did not listen and sadly, the very man who fought for the identity of Telugu poeple lost righteous place. Even a proposal from opposition TDP to name the airport after PV Narasimha Rao, the only PM from the state and Congressman was ignored. If the events after the death after PV Narasimha Rao was directed by Delhi, YSR government successfully implemented the directions to the shame of all Telugu people. Again, top marks to Congress for reviving the old habits and killing the pride and self respect of the very people whom they represent.



Telangana Drama: Congress joined hands with Telengana Rastra Samithi in 2004 elections and promised Telangana state in the election manifesto. Once in power, Congress ensured that this issue is put in complex loops and even after 5 years no clarity is provided. Just like BJP's Ram Mandir slogan, Congress is using Telangana for it's own political gains. Top marks again to congress for creating all the ripples at periodic intervals and then driving out TRS from the alliance. For the all those who wanted the unified Andhra Pradesh, this may be a good omen. Yet, this can be termed as "cheating" for which, TRS might have larger share of responsibility than Congress

Naxalites: When CBN increased the encounters and killed many, Congress promised "discussions and negotiations" as solution. Even though it started the platform on a friendly note, today Congress proved to be no different than the TDP. Again this is going back on the promise to provide a social fix for a long running issue and returning to the gun and encounters. Unfortunately today, this issue with a potential to damage the social infrastructure of Telangana and North Andhra is not on the top of agenda for any political party.

Administration: There are two aspects of the administration. If corruption is one other is functioning. When it comes to corruption, Congress brought this down to street level while, during the TDP it remained largely inside the glass doors with some level of sophistication. When it comes to functioning, this Government failed to provide the level of service to citizens. While there was an element of fear with the Government employees during the CBN rule, today all these employees attained the level of fearless state. This trend is damaging and perhaps this will be one of the top sins of the Government as most of the citizens are impacted in one way or other. When it comes to nepotism, all the parties rank on par and hence - Congress is no different.