AP Elections 2009:::Who will be the Winner?

We are almost there -- ready to put the ballot and give verdict. All the major parties are now in the last stages of smear campaign. All the news papers (Eenadu, Andhra Jyothy or Sakshi) aligned to the respective political outfits are making their own last minute "stories" to demoralise the opposition parties or taking the winner flag for their patrons.

Andhra Pradesh voters are neither naive nor innocent. These voters have grown smarter since 1997 when they made a "canny" mistake of voting for Indira Gandhi while whole country went enmasse and voted for the Janata Party. But, two years down the line, it is Andhra Pradesh voters who proved smarter as Janata Party send the nation into serious political crisis. Perhaps the vision of the state voters when it comes to stability cannot be underestimated.

When to pick up NT Rama Rao or ditch chandra Babu Naidu or welcome Rajasekhar Reddy is known to the voters in the state.

Now that we are at the closing stages of the campaign, most of the voters have made up their mind for the ballot. How do the voters decide and vote? At a very crude level, it is caste and religion plays the role. Surprising it is the Hyderabad area that generally decides on the religious lines than anywhere in the state. Muslim voters always go and vote for Majlis - for security and protection rather than any other significant factor. Their natural political enemy is BJP. But, today BJP lacks a strong leadership who could secure the Hindu voters. Perhaps this election is now bringing the new agena - Telengana when the old city Muslim friends go for vote. For them, today surprisingly Congress is the saviour than anyother party since it is not in favour of Telengana and Majlis and Muslims do not want a seperate state. Also, with huge Coastal Andhra / Rayalaseema Voters- Telengana sentiment is not going to work for any winner in Hyderabad Metro area. Clearly the winner will be Congress and Majlis. Unfortunately for Chandra Babu Naidu and TDP it is a double blow. First, CBN is now with Mahakootami and in favour of Telengana. Secondly, top leaders in this area like Davender Goud have deserted the party.

Coastal Andhra is now the swing region and perhaps going to decide the next Chief Minister. The main problem is - deep troubles with in the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP). It is always expected that - PRP and Chiranjeevi is going to very well in East and West Godavari districts with huge Kapu vote bank and also "son of the soil" sentiment. But, PRP is today facing self inflicted wounds as host of leaders are leaving the party - abusing Chiranjeevi and Allu Aravind - of Nepotism, Corruption and favoutitism. This is too much for a party at this nascent stages. Now, the question is - where do these voters go? They have a choice between Congress and TDP only. Why should I vote for Congresss? First, it comes with strong leadership unlike TDP which is on a shaky "alliance" with no compelling agenda for Coastal voters. May be Congress decision not to go with a seperate state will help to influence the voters to Congress. Second, of all the politicians in the state it is CBN who proved to be least trustworthy (along with his today's friend KCR). Knowing a person who was darling of reforms, it is hard to trust or vote for him in this new "welfare" avatar. Last, TDP wounded the Madiga community and humiliated them more than Rajasekhar Reddy. Now, this vote bank is clearly away from TDP. All, in all Congress will gain from the pains of PRP and unstable Mahakootami.

Rayalaseema is just four districts and of them Kadapa is off limits to all parties except Congress. It is Rajasekhar Reddy bastion. With the entry of his powerful son Jaganmohan Reddy - the play is strongly with Congress. In other disctricts - other than Chittoor, where TDP will make in roads rest of the region is going to be tough for TDP on account of it's deserted leaders from Reddy and BC communities. I will be surprised over all if TDP can make any gains here. With Chiranjeevi positioning in Tirupathi - existing votes will be split both from TDP and Congress.

Both in Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra it is the strength of TDP that will decide - the winner since TRS and Communiusts are dummies in this region.

Lastly Telangana, this is the place where TDP made it's biggest political blunder. If it had not gone with TRS - it would have done very well - compared to last elections. It is the image of Kalvakuntla Chandrasekhar Rao that is going to cost TDP this election. There are two leaders who are facing serious public allegation on corrption / sales of MP and MLA tickets. One of them is KCR and other is Allu Aravind. While I question CBN's seriousness about seperate state, I am convinced that KCR does not want Telengana. If it comes his story is finished. Communists will make gains in this region due to seat sharing. Congresss appears to be in a strong position from where it was couple of years back when Telangana sentiment made situation very emotional. The strength of Congress in this region is it's leaders with strong cadre while TDP lost it in the course of five years.

BJP is the net looser and perhaps. The emerging star with significant vote bank will be Loksatta - but not more than couple of seats.

Well, I think Congress is the winner in the election. It might get between 135-170 seats. Top end or bottom end is decided by PRP rather than Mahakootami.

Let's wait and see!