AP Elections 2009: And Now, Next Five Years

Well, Results have come and what I have said in my blog on 13th April even before elections have started have come true (Please see: http://inmymotherland.blogspot.com/2009/04/ap-elections-2009who-will-be-winner.html).


Congress retained power and Telugu Desam bitten dust.

Prajarajyam Party, I think did a commendable performance as we cannot keep on comparing the heroics of NT RamaRao. Probably it could have done even better if Magastar Chiranjeevi took the leadership than delegating key decisions to his brother in law Allu Aravind. Looks like he now realised the mistake and allegations that rocked the party


As I explained in my blogs, the loss of Telugu Desam Party is due to lack of credibility with Chandrababu Naidu. It is proved once again that CBN is a day dreamer. His dreams come through the writings of Eenadu and Ramoji Rao. He thinks they are gospel truth. He goes by his Political Guru's advise and now that he had bitten twice, I think CBN only way out is to be become more realistic and stop seeing the world through Ramoji Rao.

Unless there is some solid shakeup - perhaps removing CBN from top, I think Telugu Desam Party is not going to be a winner in 2014 elections. After all, Chandrababu Naidu must take responsibilty for defeat and cannot hide himself under the name of analysis. Will he do? No. Even if he wants - where is the alternative. Babu ensured that there is no No#2 in party and Lokesh Naidu is too young for that job now.


Now congratulations to Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy. He is the real life hero. He took the biggest challenges and risked his political life in this elections and emerged winner. Even if Chandrababu Naidu cannot take personal responsibility for the TDP performance, people by and large can give credit to YSR for this stunning victory and YSR can claim heads up victory. Ruling a Congress government in Andhra Pradesh is not an easy job. But now looking forward, for YSR - another 5 years rule is looking very easy now.


YS Rajasekhar Reddy comes to the power with advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and challenges. His biggest advantage is all those his bitter critics have lost elections. Thus, he is going to become strongest Congress Leader in the state history. This is his disadvantage as well. Now, his eyes cannot see and ears can listen. Hence, unless he is realistic and sensitive to issues - he will end up paying heavy price for his mistakes. YSR also must remember, it is Prajarajyam Party that helped a lot to secure his victory and it could be possible that same PRP may secure his defeat in 2014 elections.


On opportunities, with Congress government at Centre, and by sending maximum Congress MP numbers from any state in India, YSR can do lot to Andhra Pradesh. In the ceased loksabha despite having numbers, Andhra Pradesh MP's could not get anything significant for the state - while Tamil Nadu could extract even the last blood drop with no signficant numbers. Specially in terms of getting Railway budgets and development of Telengana and North Coastal Andhra in terms of utilities will have big opportunity.


Biggest challenge for YSR is his chaotic state administration. Unlike CBN who was credited with efficient administration, YSR failed to deliver. In this second term, he may look at this with care and ensure that clean administration is provided for citizens. Second challenge would on the corruption allegations. The fact that he returned to power does not absolve him from the repeated allegations. Finally, nepotism and favouritism must be checked at reasonable limits.

Finally for Prajarajyam - if the right moves are made - I believe it is the next party to challenge the Congress in 2014 elections. It is clear that TDP is in decay. Already it lost most of the leaders and now it suffers from strategic blunders. Any deviation from the current thinking, would make TDP even vulnerable. Unlike TDP, PRP can build long term strategy and move up in the power chain as long as Chiranjeevi comes out the reel world and become realistic to deal with the people issues. And this is not difficult for Chiranjeevi since he worked very hard from grassroots to reach pinnacle in silver screen. Also, despite all allegations agaist the PRP - no one said personally anything against Megastar.

The fate of Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) is ceased. With a maverick brother, KCR and sister, Vijayashanti alias Ramulamma in parliament with no power to influence, TRS cannot do much in the coming years. Having had the experience with TRS last time, Congress would not let them come any closer with any demands. It is probably difficult for TRS to keep the MLA's in its fold as they, along with TRS cadre see Chandradekhar Rao as a liability.

5 years may be too long - but it is the time to start working either to retain or regain power.