Sunday, January 22, 2012

AP State: Politcal & Power Equations Impending Shift

From around 2008, Andhra Pradesh effectively entered into the 4th phase of political power shift from the currently dominant Reddy to Kapu community. In AP, while Caste is ubiquitous factor in all the facets of life, in politics this is the predominant factor for Power.

Until independence while Andhra was part of Madras State, Brahmins were dominant political force. Being wealthy at that time, their education and willingness to migrate to urban centres helped them to lead politically. As a result, most of the 1st generation leaders of this time were Brahmins. Similar situation to a lesser extent prevailed even in erstwhile Hyderabad state. Tanguturi Prakasam and Burgula Ramakrishna Rao both Brahmins, were the 1st Chief Ministers of Andhra and Hyderabad states respectively. . Brahmin M.P's and M.L.A's have significant numbers perhaps until the formation of Andhra Pradesh state in 1956.

Since 1956 the Reddy's have become politically dominant. Successive Chief Ministers since Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy were Reddy's until 1983. While Brahmins migration to urban centres disconnected them in the predominantly rural state from their roots (vote banks), Reddy's strength stems from their hold on lands and agriculture. With their wealth and economic dominance, Reddy's have virtually controlled the state politics. During the course of time, Reddy's consolidated their hold on Education and entered into diversified fields but always ensured the grip on their roots. The Reddy tag become so much aligned with political power in the state that, even non-Reddies started suffixing their names with Reddy. This 2nd phase was longest period of political authority by a single community. Despite PV Narasimha Rao becoming Prime Minister Brahmins virtually were out of the political power structure.

Like Reddy's, Kamma community as well come with similar socio-economic background. Being agriculturists and landlords, their main focus was movies, business and other fields than politics until late late 1970's. Kammas have had a meteoric political raise, thanks to NT Rama Rao. Since then, until the defeat of N Chandrababu Naidu in 2004, the Phase-3 of the Power shift was heavily in the hands of this community.

It is hard to say, if YS Rajasekhar Reddy years were of Reddy dominance. YSR was open and frank of his Christian Religion and during his time, apart from his own family the people who gained were mostly from the diversified communities.

It was a open secret that Chiranjeevi political entry was to assert the Kapu Community and shift the power balance. Since the death of YSR and departure of Jagan from Congress - role of Kapu community is on steady raise. Unlike Brahmins (3%), Reddy's (7%-10%)and Kamma's (3%)- Kapu's have numerical strength. With the amalgamation of sub-sects they are the single largest community in the state. Despite having fair share in Assembly and Parliament, they were more or less restricted from entering the power corridors. This was largely due to lack of the education, social and political awareness and more importantly realisation of their own strengths. Thanks to the ongoing Telengana movement, the other backwards and scheduled castes also asserting their political significance. Also during the course of past 2 decades, all the communities have become wealthy and entered into the diversified fields. The traditional land owning patterns also have started to change though, slowly.  Finally everyone in politics have mastered the art of winning the power.

Reddy community success is now more or less depends on the fortunes of Jagan Mohan Reddy. Kamma's  traditional alignment with Telugu Desam, and the emergence of Kapu's pushed them into the 3rd (or 4th) position in Congress. Even the Kamma leaders who have had the opportunity in power corridors are playing safe - for their personal gains. Unless, TDP returns to the power - Kamma's are net losers. Even if TDP is successful, Naidu cannot ignore the Kapu's who would take the large chunk of power. With internal power struggles within Nara and Nandamuri clans, once a clean party is looking very vulnerable from their own community. There is no hope for Telugu Brahmins politically in the state - mainly because they do not have a strategy and unity (this the 1st and the last community in the state to announce Telengana Brahmins associations etc).

This is the decisive phase while power shifts for the first time from forward communities to Kapus and backward communities. The trends are clear. For example, Bosta family virtually controls the north coastal Andhra Pradesh. There is no single family in the state with such a grip. Even Jagan is restricted to Kadapa only. Chiranjeevi is their lucky mascot for the community for political gains. This is already evident.

As I see, 2014 would see the dominance of Kapu's in the power corridors and already politically hypersensitive state would face more uncertainties on account of this power shift and impending power struggle.




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