Disastrous Launch to Jaganmohan Reddy Political Career

First came King's tragic death, followed by the Prince's onslaught. Despite all the intense pressure, Prince could not be crowned. All the strategies ended in a huge disaster and perhaps in embarrassment. Probably, in a span of five weeks, the power hungry Prince ruined the reputation and image of the king - YS Rajasekhara Reddy that was build over decades of hard work and political struggle.

If the Krishna floods diverted the attention from the five week hype - now with Rosaiah's consolidation process - the political future of Jagan looks very fragile and may be bleak.

Sonia Gandhi and High Command have given enough indication that Rosaiah would be the Chief Minister for this term of assembly. Unless, Rosaiah commits any huge blunder - nothing significant is going to change.

By informed advise or his own wisdom, Jagan decided to play truce with the High Command for now. What will happen?

As I said in my earlier blog, return of another Congress government in 2014 is hugely unlikely. In the end, though it all depends on the political acumen of Chandrababu Naidu, it is a huge challenge to beat the incumbency. If Rosaiah & company could make it, that will be the end of Chandrababu Naidu's political career.

This will mean, Jagan cannot think of any opportunity until 2019. Between now and then, when we are talking of a decade - political landscape would change dramatically.

With this disastrous political launch, Jagan's political credibility is now a nadir and it is only a matter of time that alternative power centres would emerge and dilute the influence of Jagan in the Andhra Political scene. High Command is going to teach a lesson or two for all those who "over acted" in favour of Jagan. This is the story now developing into headlines.

In the end, it looks like - Jagan will have to follow the same path of his father, moving from Kadapa to Delhi to Hyderabad. In the process become closer to High Command and PM in waiting "Rahul" (like his father moved with Rajiv) and eventually become Chief minister of Andhra Pradesh at last, at some point of time.

However, unlike his father, Jagan does not have patience, and I would be surprised if another onslaught is made against Rosaiah's Government and High Command. Will that be a googly or a hit wicket? Let's wait and see.