Chandrababu Naidu inspired a generation in Andhra Pradesh and many parts of India. I too was one of them, impressed by transparent administration and development slogan. Back 1990's - while Naidu graph was running high - at the pinnacle of the power he had open door to Prime Minister office. He turned king maker and crowned two or three Prime Ministers of India. At one point - two strong possibilities were in his Political graph. Naidu the life term Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh like Jyothi Basu (he called himself CEO after hobnobbing with the likes of Bill Gates). Or else, becoming Prime Minister of India. Both were indeed strong possibilities.
However, neither proved correct. Naidu was booted out of power in 2004. This was a shock for Naidu and many of his fans. There are many reasons for the Naidu's rout. First, he went too fast with economic reforms in a less industrialised state. He failed to balance between development and subsidies. This hit poor and agriculture sector hard. Second, Naidu concentrated all his development mantra around Hyderabad. Finally, showered under media hype, Naidu became arrogant, out of touch and autocratic. All the Government employees turned against him. He could not even sense the upcoming disaster.
There is no better lesson than failure, if one is prepared to listen and adapt. YS Rajasekhar Reddy, who stepped into the CM chambers reversed most of the Naidu policies. By many accounts, YSR presided one of the corrupt administrations. For the sake of votes and power, development became lopsided and subsidies went up exponentially. Irrational alliances were made that are proving too costly for Congress power in AP and at Delhi in 2014. Congress Government in Delhi suffered from series of corruption scandals. Andhra Pradesh was burning day in and out due to Telngana movement. Under tragic circumstances, YSR passed away.
Everyone knew and acutely aware of huge political vacuum in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu was the answer. But he failed again. This is the third time, after successive election debacles in 2004 an 2009.
First, he fought with YSR on ethics and then continued his petty fight with Jaganmohan Reddy, who is a political novice by any measure. While the state was burning, administration was paralysed, Naidu's political vision blurred out. Since 2004, Naidu claimed by many a great strategist, proved too light on strategy and more consistent on persistent blunders.
He never had a clear policy stand on Telengana Statehood. First he appeared to be for united Andhra Pradesh. Then under intense pressure given a favourable consideration for Telengana. When, Telengana was announced, it was a yorker and looked stunned for a while. When he sensed that sentiment in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema was very strong against the bifurcation of state he changed the tone. Instead of fighting in Delhi where was real power to make or break a decision - he hit the roads of Coastal Andhra. His strategy, this time is not stop to bifurcation but to retain the political base in the limited region. If Naidu were to announce like YSR, that he was not in favour of Telengana, no power at Delhi would have dared to take this decision.
Thinking too big of himself is Naidu's another obvious shortcoming. Despite wide and varied views, there is no denial of the fact that KCR is instrumental in Telengana creation. Naidu still thinks KCR is small time politician and plays down despite KCR huge political success. This is no small feat.
Naidu is good at hypothetical claims. First of them is, Naidu persistent claims that YSR Congress is merely a Congress proxy. What Naidu do not understand is, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is most popular politician in Coastal Andhra and Telengana. Here again, Naidu thinks too big of himself and as he did with KCR he downplays Jagan. Instead of hitting hard on real issues and real solution, Naidu has been clueless.
Naidu however had limited success in his own back yard. He successfully manoeuvred his brothers-in-law and ensured that NTR JR, a potential contender for leadership is checkmated. He cleared path to crown his his son Lokesh. It is interesting to note that Naidu was a ardent opponent of dynastic politics.
With all polls suggesting that Telugu Desam Party is going to beat the dust, slowly all the party cadres are deserting this great party once stood for the pride of Telugus. Naidu, having meekly surrendered, with no credibility left is just eking out with kitchen politics. What a great polical fall out for once tall leader, considered a visionary to be a minnow in his own state?
Monday, September 16, 2013
Sunday, September 01, 2013
Raghuram Rajan, RBI & Fault Lines
Come 4th September, Dr Rahguram Rajan will take over the reigns of the Mint Street, Mumbai. Dr Rajan, comes with illustrious career record. Since his graduation days, he spent all his life in US or abroad. Like most of the Manmohan Singh team, he comes with the World Bank and IMF baggage. He famously predicted the 2008 world crisis before they brown out. He was ridiculed (or played down) by many in the Washington establishment. However, Rajan never compromised on his views. Until tomorrow, Dr Rajan remained a backroom operator or academic. That helped him to keep his reputation intact.
Welcome to Dr Raghuram Rajan into the hot seat - at a time India's economic fault lines are obvious even for common man. At North block, New Delhi - India is suffering from intellectual ideologies or inertia. Speaking in Economic terms - no one knows, if India is Capitalism, Socialism or communism. At one end - while the free market is limping, other end subsidies and freebies are exponentially go up. The bets on Onion, Petrol and dollar - which one of them would reach Rs 100 mark per unit first are not abating. While Government is aiding Petrol, market is taking care of Rupee. Even when the rain God blessed, Onion is at the mercy of some ghosts.
Current account deficit, inflated real estate, falling growth, raising inflation, policy paralysis, lack of vision at New Delhi, black money, corruption and not the least Onions are in this long list.
Now the key question though is - what Dr Raghurajan can do? Last two RBI governors - YV Reddy and Duvvuri Subbarao struck to their guns. Like US, is it that whole magic for Indian economy in tweaking interest rates and loose monetary policy (QE)? If it was that simple, why Reddy and Subbarao didn't do it, instead became anti-establishment?
Like his super boss, Dr Mannohan Singh - Raghuram Rajan is at this most defining moment of his life and career. Dr Singh failed to act. Can Raghuram Rajan act and force the policies that would clear the fault lines or fall in line with P Chidambaram? Unlike writing books or publishing articles - Rajan has to deal with the complex system in New Delhi. The biggest challenge is - who is boss? Rao and Reddy got their answer quickly and operated independently.
With populism on raise, elections round the corner - not sure how much Raghuram Rajan can correct India's economic fault lines. Certainly, the fault lines under his chair and for his reputation are on the horizon for now.
Good luck to first ever (American?) Indian RBI Governor.
Welcome to Dr Raghuram Rajan into the hot seat - at a time India's economic fault lines are obvious even for common man. At North block, New Delhi - India is suffering from intellectual ideologies or inertia. Speaking in Economic terms - no one knows, if India is Capitalism, Socialism or communism. At one end - while the free market is limping, other end subsidies and freebies are exponentially go up. The bets on Onion, Petrol and dollar - which one of them would reach Rs 100 mark per unit first are not abating. While Government is aiding Petrol, market is taking care of Rupee. Even when the rain God blessed, Onion is at the mercy of some ghosts.
Current account deficit, inflated real estate, falling growth, raising inflation, policy paralysis, lack of vision at New Delhi, black money, corruption and not the least Onions are in this long list.
Now the key question though is - what Dr Raghurajan can do? Last two RBI governors - YV Reddy and Duvvuri Subbarao struck to their guns. Like US, is it that whole magic for Indian economy in tweaking interest rates and loose monetary policy (QE)? If it was that simple, why Reddy and Subbarao didn't do it, instead became anti-establishment?
Like his super boss, Dr Mannohan Singh - Raghuram Rajan is at this most defining moment of his life and career. Dr Singh failed to act. Can Raghuram Rajan act and force the policies that would clear the fault lines or fall in line with P Chidambaram? Unlike writing books or publishing articles - Rajan has to deal with the complex system in New Delhi. The biggest challenge is - who is boss? Rao and Reddy got their answer quickly and operated independently.
With populism on raise, elections round the corner - not sure how much Raghuram Rajan can correct India's economic fault lines. Certainly, the fault lines under his chair and for his reputation are on the horizon for now.
Good luck to first ever (American?) Indian RBI Governor.
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Manmohan Singh into liability account
In Indian National Congress only the original (MK) Gandhi, Jawahar Lal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv and Sanjay Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi will remain in the credit account for ever. Rest all Congressmen or women, how exceptional or brilliant they might be, will eventually land into the liability account. Be it most respected nationalist Sardar Vallabhai Patel, high rated Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri, or most successful Congress Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao, or estranged Morarji Desai, Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose or VP Singh would eventually land into the liability account. Interesting, their liability accounts were orchestrated in an unique fashion.
Congress high command (aka Nehru Gandhi family) works on principle of utility value. While MK Gandhi invented most principles, Indira Gandhi mastered them. Authoritarian democracy - leaving the decision to Congress high command is one of the most successful congress formulas. The democracy ends at the door steps of the Congress President. Once, any neta of bigger than life stature enters the gates - the fundamental principle of modus operandi, remained exactly same. Perhaps, Nehru during his initial years had difficulty to enforce this diktat with Rajendra Prasad, Patel or Rajaji and few more due to seniority. By time Indira became high command, much senior leaders like Morarji have left with two options - either fall in line or leave the party. Many "self respected" politicians left the party while rest of the respectable leaders like R.Venkataraman operated dexterously.
Now, time has come for Manmohan Singh balance sheet. Unlike most of the Congressmen - Dr Singh became Congress and nation's liability. Singh became an accidental Finance Minister. Over the course of time sensing the opportunity moment, Dr Singh silently hijacked the credit of 1990 reforms and in the process pushed PV, his mentor into oblivion. It served the purpose of Congress high command. Two decades later, as dreaded economic truths emerge Dr Singh's own strengths, vision and credibility are under the radar. On 15th Aug 2014, speaking to nation, for the first time Singh acknowledged political push that was needed and attributed 1990 success to late P V Narasimha Rao . It is now clear that disproportionate credit was given to Dr Singh for the vision, implementation and success while he was Finance Minister.
Being in the most powerful chair Prime Minister, Dr Singh does not have strength and ability for political push. He lacks power (parasite). He lacks will (remote controlled). He lacked vision (gratitude to madam). He has been looking for a Rao, nearly for a decade. But he has Sonia Gandhi.
Rao had crisis in front of him, he had to act. He had a vision and hired the right people for the right jobs. His was a nationalist and he measured global political and economic winds and responded appropriately. He endured all the pains while rest of his team were by and large protected from opposition onslaught.
Sonia did not have any crisis. Vajpayee Government handed over healthy economy. Peaceful state. A nation respected in the world arena. For Sonia vision - Dr Singh is safe a bet, status quo till - Rahul Gandhi is ready. A better and capable politician, Pranab Mukerjee was shunted out of fear. A wrong candidate who is not fit for leading the nation is crowned. It might have served Sonia Gandhi purpose - but India landed into geo, political, economic, social and regional crisis.
Unlike Sardar Patel, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Netaji or PV - Congress high command need not work hard to create a liability account for Dr Singh. Until few years back, I was one of the genuine sympathizers of Dr Singh. Today I am not. Perhaps I need not to be. As far Singh is concerned, Bhagavad Gita Verse 3.35 aptly summarises:
Congress high command (aka Nehru Gandhi family) works on principle of utility value. While MK Gandhi invented most principles, Indira Gandhi mastered them. Authoritarian democracy - leaving the decision to Congress high command is one of the most successful congress formulas. The democracy ends at the door steps of the Congress President. Once, any neta of bigger than life stature enters the gates - the fundamental principle of modus operandi, remained exactly same. Perhaps, Nehru during his initial years had difficulty to enforce this diktat with Rajendra Prasad, Patel or Rajaji and few more due to seniority. By time Indira became high command, much senior leaders like Morarji have left with two options - either fall in line or leave the party. Many "self respected" politicians left the party while rest of the respectable leaders like R.Venkataraman operated dexterously.
Now, time has come for Manmohan Singh balance sheet. Unlike most of the Congressmen - Dr Singh became Congress and nation's liability. Singh became an accidental Finance Minister. Over the course of time sensing the opportunity moment, Dr Singh silently hijacked the credit of 1990 reforms and in the process pushed PV, his mentor into oblivion. It served the purpose of Congress high command. Two decades later, as dreaded economic truths emerge Dr Singh's own strengths, vision and credibility are under the radar. On 15th Aug 2014, speaking to nation, for the first time Singh acknowledged political push that was needed and attributed 1990 success to late P V Narasimha Rao . It is now clear that disproportionate credit was given to Dr Singh for the vision, implementation and success while he was Finance Minister.
Being in the most powerful chair Prime Minister, Dr Singh does not have strength and ability for political push. He lacks power (parasite). He lacks will (remote controlled). He lacked vision (gratitude to madam). He has been looking for a Rao, nearly for a decade. But he has Sonia Gandhi.
Rao had crisis in front of him, he had to act. He had a vision and hired the right people for the right jobs. His was a nationalist and he measured global political and economic winds and responded appropriately. He endured all the pains while rest of his team were by and large protected from opposition onslaught.
Sonia did not have any crisis. Vajpayee Government handed over healthy economy. Peaceful state. A nation respected in the world arena. For Sonia vision - Dr Singh is safe a bet, status quo till - Rahul Gandhi is ready. A better and capable politician, Pranab Mukerjee was shunted out of fear. A wrong candidate who is not fit for leading the nation is crowned. It might have served Sonia Gandhi purpose - but India landed into geo, political, economic, social and regional crisis.
Unlike Sardar Patel, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Netaji or PV - Congress high command need not work hard to create a liability account for Dr Singh. Until few years back, I was one of the genuine sympathizers of Dr Singh. Today I am not. Perhaps I need not to be. As far Singh is concerned, Bhagavad Gita Verse 3.35 aptly summarises:
sreyan sva-dharmo vigunah
para-dharmat sv-anusthitat
sva-dharme nidhanam sreyah
para-dharmo bhayavahah
para-dharmat sv-anusthitat
sva-dharme nidhanam sreyah
para-dharmo bhayavahah
Translation
It is far better to discharge one’s prescribed duties, even though
faultily, than another’s duties perfectly. Destruction in the course of
performing one’s own duty is better than engaging in another’s duties,
for to follow another’s path is dangerous.Thursday, July 11, 2013
Playing with Fire - Indian Congress Party Politics
Independent India's greatness or poor show, good or bad, Secular or religious politics, successful democracy or caste and regionalism - all in some way or other is attributed to Congress Party. Politics is all about power, power is about existence and existence is for survival. Congress did everything it could and has been going for it's existence.
During the initial decade of Indian independence, the national building was molded by absolute desire to make India a Great nation on the earth. Building dams, making foundations for solid education system and more importantly learning to live peacefully unlike separated cousin Pakistan are few good examples. While India can positively cheer of it's progress, over the period of time Congress politics has come down to single agenda - Survival. For this, beginning 60's - Congress started playing with fire. First it applied the schema with in the party and tested. Then, applied externally. The game plan has been simple. Invent a problem - put the opposition parties (or opponents) in defense, divide them, gather votes on cheap popular agenda, or talk moral high ground, deceive the public and return to the power.
Interestingly, this Congress game plan was a huge success. Indira Gandhi became Goddess Durga. Bangladesh was created. Along with that, came India's first national crisis. The nation, which was by and large living in peace was flooded with Bangladeshi refugees. What Congress (and Indian Government) do know but would not admit is - since 1971, when Bangladesh created the Hindu population is rapid declining. For any statistics, if these Hindu's are running away from Bangladesh - then they must be the refugees in India. But, most of the refugees are Muslims. They arrived (keep up the inflows still) initially into Assam and West Bengal. Over the course of years, all these refugees slowly seep into India's hinterland. Shiv Sena which cries foul of these refugees in Mumbai is branded a communal party. For the vote bank politics, Congress would use the secular agenda and join with the other so called secular forces to undermine the problem. Most of the people knew Assam and other north Eastern states, West Bengal are simmering with communal fire. It is a matter of time - it will blow up, after the intermittent flareups seen occasionally. Infernos would be imminent. For Congress party survival by Congress Party.
Back in 80's Congress had difficulty with Akalis in Punjab. Akalis - a Sikh Party for protecting Sikhs interest. Congress had a difficulty with them. To counter Akalis, Congress incited alternative power politics. The richest state suffered for decades, host of innocent citizens were killed. When their alternative, Brindanwale became a liability - the worst events took place Indian history. Golden temple attack, operational blue star, assassination of Indira Gandhi, many senior politicians and Army officers - Sikhs massacre. Congress ignited fire destroyed many dreams and aspirations. Despite all this tragedy congress could get back to power. Congress knew to arbitrage the situation. Rajiv Gandhi took center stage. Indira Gandhi became martyr. Rest forgotten or conveniently ignored.
Rajiv is credited with igniting two fires. One in Ayodhya in Northern India. The Babri Masjid gates were opened - and the turn of events in the subsequent years divided the nations communal fabric. However, for all this Congress found another Prime Minister to wash off hands. Despite all this, congress party survival in Utter Pradesh is marginalized by communal, Secular and religious parties. Even then, Congress still works with them for their survival. Rajiv Gandhi's other fire was in down south. Tamil issue. In the end, the fire consumed Rajiv himself. Yet, for survival Congress party work closely with the parties that sympathized Rajiv assassins. Again, for existence, survival is the key and for survival power is the key. Congress knows this better than any other political party in India.
After going into oblivion for a decade, Congress returned this time with Sonia Gandhi's agenda. This time, Congress is playing with two fires. We are not sure what would be the eventual outcome. While the Gujarat and hunting Narendra Modi is is an opportunity to be exploited - Telengana is it's own creation. For more than a decade, they are playing with a state and it's people precariously. They created leaders, invented formulas, confused the nation for their survival. Congress is bound to take the decision for it's own benefit. Remember, it is not in national interest. Underestimating people power is Congress high command naive thinking. Both Andhra Pradesh and Narendra Modi / Gujarat fires are very serious in nature. This is happened with Punjab or Tamils. The problems seemingly under control initially consumed many.
Partition of India, Punjab, Bangladesh, Tamils all have catapulted them into power. But on each of these occasions, most of the Indians paid heavy price. Playing with fire is not good politics. It will bound to consume. Will it be lucky again?
During the initial decade of Indian independence, the national building was molded by absolute desire to make India a Great nation on the earth. Building dams, making foundations for solid education system and more importantly learning to live peacefully unlike separated cousin Pakistan are few good examples. While India can positively cheer of it's progress, over the period of time Congress politics has come down to single agenda - Survival. For this, beginning 60's - Congress started playing with fire. First it applied the schema with in the party and tested. Then, applied externally. The game plan has been simple. Invent a problem - put the opposition parties (or opponents) in defense, divide them, gather votes on cheap popular agenda, or talk moral high ground, deceive the public and return to the power.
Interestingly, this Congress game plan was a huge success. Indira Gandhi became Goddess Durga. Bangladesh was created. Along with that, came India's first national crisis. The nation, which was by and large living in peace was flooded with Bangladeshi refugees. What Congress (and Indian Government) do know but would not admit is - since 1971, when Bangladesh created the Hindu population is rapid declining. For any statistics, if these Hindu's are running away from Bangladesh - then they must be the refugees in India. But, most of the refugees are Muslims. They arrived (keep up the inflows still) initially into Assam and West Bengal. Over the course of years, all these refugees slowly seep into India's hinterland. Shiv Sena which cries foul of these refugees in Mumbai is branded a communal party. For the vote bank politics, Congress would use the secular agenda and join with the other so called secular forces to undermine the problem. Most of the people knew Assam and other north Eastern states, West Bengal are simmering with communal fire. It is a matter of time - it will blow up, after the intermittent flareups seen occasionally. Infernos would be imminent. For Congress party survival by Congress Party.
Back in 80's Congress had difficulty with Akalis in Punjab. Akalis - a Sikh Party for protecting Sikhs interest. Congress had a difficulty with them. To counter Akalis, Congress incited alternative power politics. The richest state suffered for decades, host of innocent citizens were killed. When their alternative, Brindanwale became a liability - the worst events took place Indian history. Golden temple attack, operational blue star, assassination of Indira Gandhi, many senior politicians and Army officers - Sikhs massacre. Congress ignited fire destroyed many dreams and aspirations. Despite all this tragedy congress could get back to power. Congress knew to arbitrage the situation. Rajiv Gandhi took center stage. Indira Gandhi became martyr. Rest forgotten or conveniently ignored.
Rajiv is credited with igniting two fires. One in Ayodhya in Northern India. The Babri Masjid gates were opened - and the turn of events in the subsequent years divided the nations communal fabric. However, for all this Congress found another Prime Minister to wash off hands. Despite all this, congress party survival in Utter Pradesh is marginalized by communal, Secular and religious parties. Even then, Congress still works with them for their survival. Rajiv Gandhi's other fire was in down south. Tamil issue. In the end, the fire consumed Rajiv himself. Yet, for survival Congress party work closely with the parties that sympathized Rajiv assassins. Again, for existence, survival is the key and for survival power is the key. Congress knows this better than any other political party in India.
After going into oblivion for a decade, Congress returned this time with Sonia Gandhi's agenda. This time, Congress is playing with two fires. We are not sure what would be the eventual outcome. While the Gujarat and hunting Narendra Modi is is an opportunity to be exploited - Telengana is it's own creation. For more than a decade, they are playing with a state and it's people precariously. They created leaders, invented formulas, confused the nation for their survival. Congress is bound to take the decision for it's own benefit. Remember, it is not in national interest. Underestimating people power is Congress high command naive thinking. Both Andhra Pradesh and Narendra Modi / Gujarat fires are very serious in nature. This is happened with Punjab or Tamils. The problems seemingly under control initially consumed many.
Partition of India, Punjab, Bangladesh, Tamils all have catapulted them into power. But on each of these occasions, most of the Indians paid heavy price. Playing with fire is not good politics. It will bound to consume. Will it be lucky again?
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Falling Currency - India Story
My mother is well into here eighties. She was not educated at Harvard like India's Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram nor at Oxbridge like Indian Prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh. She stopped her studies perhaps in her middle school.
When I was a kid, lot of our aunts, uncles, cousins and close relatives used to visit our home regularly. Being in a relatively better of middle class family and respectable position in society - my mothers kindness was paramount for most of my relatives. They used to take favors - from money to gifts - that were never returned nor reciprocated.
All my relatives knew one thing for sure. It is not easy to get the favors from my mother easily. But they all knew one trick. My mothers weakness was flattery. All my relatives mastered this art while coming to home and in due to course of conversations trap her emotionally to get the best. As I grew up, I used to feel - there is something seriously amiss. This flattery was weaved around my mothers wealth, family legacy, magnanimity and auspicious blessing and kindness. While it may not be completely false - the fact is, these magnified statements often stretched beyond the reality. In due course - my mother bestowed relatives with Gold or Silver ornaments, given money without asking to return and spent best part of her young and middle ages extending support of all kind. It took very long time and bruises to understand what actually went wrong. But damage was already done. She still repents for her deeds.
In early 2000 while in India, I picked up couple of newspapers and magazines. All the newspapers were full of positive stories of India. There were "real" stories of "real people" who have become instantly rich and moved from poverty to skyscrapers of Bombay. While European / US airlines were operating in budget mode, Kingfisher and Jet airways were seen as emerging global leaders. Infosys or TCS were clearly identified to lead the tech world. Indian economy was expected to break all the records and set to become worlds 2nd or 3rd if not the top. It was a miracle story of all kinds. Some one said that all the back office jobs would be in India and it was predicted to become - worlds Service hub. Bangalore would take over Shangai and perhaps Mumbai would takeover London or NY. Manmohan Singh was called the best educated head of a country in the world. Sonia Gandhi was named worlds most powerful lady. In a nutshell, the Chindia is the place to be in 21st Century.
All the above in the first place was not said by Indians. The books like "World is Flat", papers in London FT, New York times, or Harvard Business review to mention a few are the architects of these stories. Nandan Nilakani or NR Narayana Murthy have defined visions for India and became poster boys primarily for the Western world. Falsely - likes of Indra Nooyi, Rajat Gupta, Vinod Khosla who are American citizens have been branded and parceled in the India shining story. While there is no denial of some facts, the reality is far different from this approbation. The truth and reality have been buried under the flattery and hype. India lost the race for the good.
As the reality kicks in - today Indian political and executive leadership is clueless. Forget the vision of India they do not have a strategy for next week or month. The Harvard, Yale, Cambridge or Oxford educated world class Indian economists, now are at Bernanke's mercy. Globalized economy is like a Global game. China's PMI, Greece bailout, or a Fed statement would send jitters.
The key question though - is India prepared to play this highly sophisticated game? The crux of the issue is - Indian Political class buried under flattery or hype for past two decades sell lies to their citizens. "Don't worry about falling dollar or do not buy gold" are perhaps few of the examples. Their ego and constant denial of facts is accelerating the downward moment. Even more worrying is the consensus politics and heavy focus on the secular agenda of the best educated PM and the most powerful lady on the earth. Rupee value, dwindling foreign reserves or serial non-abating corruption scandals are real barometers of potentially a great nation.
My mother in her 70s understood the menace of flattery. She became realistic and understood the rules of the game. In the end, she could limit the damage. But, the Oxbridge educated Dr Singh who has been advertised the architect of Indian economic reforms is falling under his own pressure.
As long as Indian people elect (even indirectly) these false visionaries and continue to keep them in these vital offices - rupee would keep falling further and further.
Be realistic!
When I was a kid, lot of our aunts, uncles, cousins and close relatives used to visit our home regularly. Being in a relatively better of middle class family and respectable position in society - my mothers kindness was paramount for most of my relatives. They used to take favors - from money to gifts - that were never returned nor reciprocated.
All my relatives knew one thing for sure. It is not easy to get the favors from my mother easily. But they all knew one trick. My mothers weakness was flattery. All my relatives mastered this art while coming to home and in due to course of conversations trap her emotionally to get the best. As I grew up, I used to feel - there is something seriously amiss. This flattery was weaved around my mothers wealth, family legacy, magnanimity and auspicious blessing and kindness. While it may not be completely false - the fact is, these magnified statements often stretched beyond the reality. In due course - my mother bestowed relatives with Gold or Silver ornaments, given money without asking to return and spent best part of her young and middle ages extending support of all kind. It took very long time and bruises to understand what actually went wrong. But damage was already done. She still repents for her deeds.
In early 2000 while in India, I picked up couple of newspapers and magazines. All the newspapers were full of positive stories of India. There were "real" stories of "real people" who have become instantly rich and moved from poverty to skyscrapers of Bombay. While European / US airlines were operating in budget mode, Kingfisher and Jet airways were seen as emerging global leaders. Infosys or TCS were clearly identified to lead the tech world. Indian economy was expected to break all the records and set to become worlds 2nd or 3rd if not the top. It was a miracle story of all kinds. Some one said that all the back office jobs would be in India and it was predicted to become - worlds Service hub. Bangalore would take over Shangai and perhaps Mumbai would takeover London or NY. Manmohan Singh was called the best educated head of a country in the world. Sonia Gandhi was named worlds most powerful lady. In a nutshell, the Chindia is the place to be in 21st Century.
All the above in the first place was not said by Indians. The books like "World is Flat", papers in London FT, New York times, or Harvard Business review to mention a few are the architects of these stories. Nandan Nilakani or NR Narayana Murthy have defined visions for India and became poster boys primarily for the Western world. Falsely - likes of Indra Nooyi, Rajat Gupta, Vinod Khosla who are American citizens have been branded and parceled in the India shining story. While there is no denial of some facts, the reality is far different from this approbation. The truth and reality have been buried under the flattery and hype. India lost the race for the good.
As the reality kicks in - today Indian political and executive leadership is clueless. Forget the vision of India they do not have a strategy for next week or month. The Harvard, Yale, Cambridge or Oxford educated world class Indian economists, now are at Bernanke's mercy. Globalized economy is like a Global game. China's PMI, Greece bailout, or a Fed statement would send jitters.
The key question though - is India prepared to play this highly sophisticated game? The crux of the issue is - Indian Political class buried under flattery or hype for past two decades sell lies to their citizens. "Don't worry about falling dollar or do not buy gold" are perhaps few of the examples. Their ego and constant denial of facts is accelerating the downward moment. Even more worrying is the consensus politics and heavy focus on the secular agenda of the best educated PM and the most powerful lady on the earth. Rupee value, dwindling foreign reserves or serial non-abating corruption scandals are real barometers of potentially a great nation.
My mother in her 70s understood the menace of flattery. She became realistic and understood the rules of the game. In the end, she could limit the damage. But, the Oxbridge educated Dr Singh who has been advertised the architect of Indian economic reforms is falling under his own pressure.
As long as Indian people elect (even indirectly) these false visionaries and continue to keep them in these vital offices - rupee would keep falling further and further.
Be realistic!
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Battered Tamils and Myopic Indian Politics
When it comes to external affairs - very few nations fail to display the unanimous solidarity. There are exceptions as well. All such exceptions though are ominous signals. Currently Syria, earlier Iraq or Egypt experienced these symptoms prior to collapse then regimes. It may be harsh to compare India with these less democratic countries. However, the recent episodes and emanating symptoms invariably lead to this question. Let's take the simple issue of Italian marines who have been arrested following fishermen incident off the Kerala coast. Already the issue has been shifted from the culprits to Italian Ambassador. Today, India landed itself into a very vulnerable diplomatic situation putting it's international credibility at risk. The fundamental problem for a distant observer is - who in charge of the affairs? Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister, Home Minister, Supreme Court Of India or Sonia Gandhi. Beneath this affair, the conspiracy theories surrounding the Augusta Helicopter scheme is gaining strong ground. Perhaps, cut off the relations or damage them for a a while, and kill or bury the scam. If it is true, then the political gains are fraction of the wider damage
Now coming to Sri Lanka Tamils issue. For any close observer from Indian side, it is impossible to gauge India's true and consistent position. In early 1980's LTTE were India's revered guests. At one time they had direct access to the power corridors of New Delhi and Madras (Chennai). Things took a dramatic turn, after Rajiv Gandhi's intervention with IPKF. While the persistent sympathizers of LTTE and Srilankan Tamils existed in Tamil Nadu hinterlands - Rajiv Gandhi's assassination changed the equations. While DMK and AIDMK played ping pong with this issue mostly while in the opposition benches, of late for either of them Sri Lanka Tamils have become symbolic identity on the lines of BJPs Hindutva slogan.
During the course of past 2 decades, the Sri Lankan Government globalized their diplomatic relationships beyond being India's little sister. The strategic location and natural resources and many other factors including India itself attracted India arch rivals like China and Pakistan to their closer proximity. Following departure of Vajpayee, India's diplomatic policies as well got into the hands of the powerful regional allies. Bangladesh policy by Mamata Benerjee is a good example. This is the dangerous trend. Pakistan policy is implicitly dictated by pro-muslim secular parties who have no understanding of wider reputations beyond vested interests in their local Muslim vote bank.
Surprisingly though, when it comes to Sri Lanka Tamils, even the hardcore Tamil parties lacked basic strategy. Only after Channel 4 revelation of Prabhakaran's son Balachandran's killing collective public emotions got charged in Tamil Nadu. Karunanidhi and DMK have their own compulsions. With the reports coming out recently indicating, Raja (the 2G fame) acted with the full confidence of Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram, naturally DMK wants to settle the scores. Also, the Tamil parties have the pulse of nations mood. The know how to align quickly with the ruling party at New Delhi. Elections are not far - and it is the time to turn the tables! For them Hindutva, Muslims, Hindi or anything else is only after their Tamil interest.
Unfortunately, Karunanidhi picked up perhaps a right issue in a wrong context. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi thought, it is better let DMK go out of their coalition than risking Sri Lanka Government. Then, foolishly they have put the resolution for discussion in Parliament. There are no takers other than the two Tamil Parties. India proved it's timidity on one of the important international issue. All the political class has been exposed in black and white.
Now the consequences for those innocent Sri Lankan Tamils are far reaching. Sri Lanka Government is now assured of India's non-interference. After all the pogroms and alleged ethnic cleansing - the Sri Lanka Government knows - they still have got plenty of time to complete the unsettled business. Karunanidhi purely for his myopic political gains picked up a wrong issue at an inappropriate time.
For India, the symptoms are getting bigger and consistent. The recent episode adds to the long list of internal diplomatic blunders of this UPA government. What India lacks today is leadership - a Indira Gandhi or Lalbahadur Shastri or Vajpayee would not have let these blunders happened.
Now coming to Sri Lanka Tamils issue. For any close observer from Indian side, it is impossible to gauge India's true and consistent position. In early 1980's LTTE were India's revered guests. At one time they had direct access to the power corridors of New Delhi and Madras (Chennai). Things took a dramatic turn, after Rajiv Gandhi's intervention with IPKF. While the persistent sympathizers of LTTE and Srilankan Tamils existed in Tamil Nadu hinterlands - Rajiv Gandhi's assassination changed the equations. While DMK and AIDMK played ping pong with this issue mostly while in the opposition benches, of late for either of them Sri Lanka Tamils have become symbolic identity on the lines of BJPs Hindutva slogan.
During the course of past 2 decades, the Sri Lankan Government globalized their diplomatic relationships beyond being India's little sister. The strategic location and natural resources and many other factors including India itself attracted India arch rivals like China and Pakistan to their closer proximity. Following departure of Vajpayee, India's diplomatic policies as well got into the hands of the powerful regional allies. Bangladesh policy by Mamata Benerjee is a good example. This is the dangerous trend. Pakistan policy is implicitly dictated by pro-muslim secular parties who have no understanding of wider reputations beyond vested interests in their local Muslim vote bank.
Surprisingly though, when it comes to Sri Lanka Tamils, even the hardcore Tamil parties lacked basic strategy. Only after Channel 4 revelation of Prabhakaran's son Balachandran's killing collective public emotions got charged in Tamil Nadu. Karunanidhi and DMK have their own compulsions. With the reports coming out recently indicating, Raja (the 2G fame) acted with the full confidence of Manmohan Singh and Chidambaram, naturally DMK wants to settle the scores. Also, the Tamil parties have the pulse of nations mood. The know how to align quickly with the ruling party at New Delhi. Elections are not far - and it is the time to turn the tables! For them Hindutva, Muslims, Hindi or anything else is only after their Tamil interest.
Unfortunately, Karunanidhi picked up perhaps a right issue in a wrong context. Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi thought, it is better let DMK go out of their coalition than risking Sri Lanka Government. Then, foolishly they have put the resolution for discussion in Parliament. There are no takers other than the two Tamil Parties. India proved it's timidity on one of the important international issue. All the political class has been exposed in black and white.
Now the consequences for those innocent Sri Lankan Tamils are far reaching. Sri Lanka Government is now assured of India's non-interference. After all the pogroms and alleged ethnic cleansing - the Sri Lanka Government knows - they still have got plenty of time to complete the unsettled business. Karunanidhi purely for his myopic political gains picked up a wrong issue at an inappropriate time.
For India, the symptoms are getting bigger and consistent. The recent episode adds to the long list of internal diplomatic blunders of this UPA government. What India lacks today is leadership - a Indira Gandhi or Lalbahadur Shastri or Vajpayee would not have let these blunders happened.
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Undavalli Arun Kumar Rajahmundry Message and Analysis
Undavalli Arun Kumar is politician of intellect and logic. At first, a brief reading of his political standing and acumen is necessary to gain insight and then, understand the logical basis for his Rajahmundry rally. Largely uncontroversial, perhaps little known until Margadarsi episode Arun Kumar public profile had a meteoric raise soon after this head on with Ramoji Rao. It was a well known fact, YS Rajasekhar Reddy personal animosity with media baron was genesis for Arun Kumar's allegations. Being a close associate of YSR and a lawyer by profession, Arun Kumar by and large did a splendid job damaging the reputation of Godly Ramoji Rao. However, his prescience and oratory skills together have raised his reputation in Delhi. He became on of the key "advisors" to high command. At the same time, unlike many other vocal and public attention seeking politicians, he remained largely a back room operator keeping his political network intact.
Against this background, his recent rally and the speech [for Unified Andhra Pradesh] at his home constituency Rajahmundry is already creating waves in the state. Leaving aside the emotional and illogical outbursts, noise and clutter it is clear that Arun Kumar is clearly giving a message either for the United Andhra Pradesh or for the bifurcation of the state. As it happened in the case of Margadarsi episode, there is no personal or political gain for Undavalli by becoming a center of attention. Also, the Seema Andhra group is lead by the powerful Lagadapati Rajgopal, Rayapati Sambasiva Rao or Kavuri Sambasiva Rao (until his recent exit from the scene). There is a general feel KVP Ramachandra Rao could be the mastermind behind this event and speech there of. However Arun Kumar, a life time Congress loyalist and sort of a blue eyed boy of Congress high command would not take a risk of making both logical and emotional statements without the blessings of Congress High Command. To put it simple - at this juncture, the Congress high command would not like accrual of further complications from some one like Vundavalli Arun Kumar.
In a nutshell, Rajahmundry Member of Parliament is conveying high command message. Analyzing his speech, it is obvious that there are two key issues on the table to be resolved. First, what to do with the Hyderabad? In his speech and subsequently, despite saying "Jai Telengana", he is making a strong case that - never in the history of independent India - state Capital region was included in request for separation. Madras, Bombay, Patna, Bhopal remained with the original unified state while rest of the state was separated into Andhra, Gujarat, Jarkhand or Chattisgarh. Does it mean - Telengana without Hyderabad is a possibility with out further bloodbath?
Second, and more importantly - who should take the credit for creating a Telengana state? As long as TRS remains a separate political entity, the credit would go to Telengana Rastra Samithi and K Chandra Sekhar Rao & his family (son K T Rama Rao, daughter K Kavitha and nephew Harish Rao). This is a risk Congress does not want to take. At his best, KCR is least trustworthy partner and his maverick decisions and outbursts or on par with Mamata Benerjee . Hence, Undavalli cleverly explained TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu case in the context and explained why Naidu was not adored by TRS despite his revised positive stand to create Telengana. As long as Congress is in power, the credit for any success and political benefit must go to Gandhi's. As of now, it is not possible. Hence, Arun Kumar is repeatedly stated that it is TRS which does not want Telengana for political gains in 2014. It means, only on prior [unconditional] merger of TRS, Congress would make a positive announcement.
Finally, he lead to the key point to have a logical and meaningful discussions between the leaders of both regions [setting aside emotions and sentiments]. This means, protecting the interests of Andhra and Rayalaseema region and their people in Telengana.
Unless all these these three points are agreed in principle by TRS and Congress leaders in Telengana, Congress High Command is not in a position to take a final decision.
This time, they could not find any better politician than Vundavalli Arun Kumar who is good at explaining subtle issues. Job done, but will it yield results?
Against this background, his recent rally and the speech [for Unified Andhra Pradesh] at his home constituency Rajahmundry is already creating waves in the state. Leaving aside the emotional and illogical outbursts, noise and clutter it is clear that Arun Kumar is clearly giving a message either for the United Andhra Pradesh or for the bifurcation of the state. As it happened in the case of Margadarsi episode, there is no personal or political gain for Undavalli by becoming a center of attention. Also, the Seema Andhra group is lead by the powerful Lagadapati Rajgopal, Rayapati Sambasiva Rao or Kavuri Sambasiva Rao (until his recent exit from the scene). There is a general feel KVP Ramachandra Rao could be the mastermind behind this event and speech there of. However Arun Kumar, a life time Congress loyalist and sort of a blue eyed boy of Congress high command would not take a risk of making both logical and emotional statements without the blessings of Congress High Command. To put it simple - at this juncture, the Congress high command would not like accrual of further complications from some one like Vundavalli Arun Kumar.
In a nutshell, Rajahmundry Member of Parliament is conveying high command message. Analyzing his speech, it is obvious that there are two key issues on the table to be resolved. First, what to do with the Hyderabad? In his speech and subsequently, despite saying "Jai Telengana", he is making a strong case that - never in the history of independent India - state Capital region was included in request for separation. Madras, Bombay, Patna, Bhopal remained with the original unified state while rest of the state was separated into Andhra, Gujarat, Jarkhand or Chattisgarh. Does it mean - Telengana without Hyderabad is a possibility with out further bloodbath?
Second, and more importantly - who should take the credit for creating a Telengana state? As long as TRS remains a separate political entity, the credit would go to Telengana Rastra Samithi and K Chandra Sekhar Rao & his family (son K T Rama Rao, daughter K Kavitha and nephew Harish Rao). This is a risk Congress does not want to take. At his best, KCR is least trustworthy partner and his maverick decisions and outbursts or on par with Mamata Benerjee . Hence, Undavalli cleverly explained TDP and Chandra Babu Naidu case in the context and explained why Naidu was not adored by TRS despite his revised positive stand to create Telengana. As long as Congress is in power, the credit for any success and political benefit must go to Gandhi's. As of now, it is not possible. Hence, Arun Kumar is repeatedly stated that it is TRS which does not want Telengana for political gains in 2014. It means, only on prior [unconditional] merger of TRS, Congress would make a positive announcement.
Finally, he lead to the key point to have a logical and meaningful discussions between the leaders of both regions [setting aside emotions and sentiments]. This means, protecting the interests of Andhra and Rayalaseema region and their people in Telengana.
Unless all these these three points are agreed in principle by TRS and Congress leaders in Telengana, Congress High Command is not in a position to take a final decision.
This time, they could not find any better politician than Vundavalli Arun Kumar who is good at explaining subtle issues. Job done, but will it yield results?
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