Chandrababu Naidu - Decline and Politial fallout

Chandrababu Naidu inspired a generation in Andhra Pradesh and many parts of India. I too was one of them, impressed by transparent administration and development slogan. Back 1990's - while Naidu graph was running high - at the pinnacle of the power he had open door to Prime Minister office. He turned king maker and crowned two or three Prime Ministers of India. At one point - two strong possibilities were in his Political graph. Naidu the life term Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh like Jyothi Basu (he called himself CEO after hobnobbing with the likes of Bill Gates). Or else, becoming Prime Minister of India. Both were indeed strong possibilities.

However, neither proved correct. Naidu was booted out of power in 2004. This was a shock for Naidu and many of his fans. There are many reasons for the Naidu's rout. First, he went too fast with economic reforms in a less industrialised state. He failed to balance between development and subsidies. This hit poor and agriculture sector hard. Second, Naidu concentrated all his development mantra around Hyderabad. Finally, showered under media hype, Naidu became arrogant, out of touch and autocratic. All the Government employees turned against him. He could not even sense the upcoming disaster.

There is no better lesson than failure, if one is prepared to listen and adapt. YS Rajasekhar Reddy, who  stepped into the CM chambers reversed most of the Naidu policies. By many accounts, YSR presided one of the corrupt administrations. For the sake of votes and power, development became lopsided and subsidies went up exponentially. Irrational alliances were made that are proving too costly for Congress power in AP and at Delhi in 2014. Congress Government in Delhi suffered from series of corruption scandals. Andhra Pradesh was burning day in and out due to Telngana movement. Under tragic circumstances, YSR passed away.

Everyone knew and acutely aware of huge political vacuum in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu was the answer. But he failed again. This is the third time, after successive election debacles in 2004 an 2009.

First, he fought with YSR on ethics and then continued his petty fight with Jaganmohan Reddy, who is a political novice by any measure. While the state was burning, administration was paralysed, Naidu's political vision blurred out. Since 2004, Naidu claimed by many a great strategist, proved too light on strategy and more consistent on persistent blunders.

He never had a clear policy stand on Telengana Statehood. First he appeared to be for united Andhra Pradesh. Then under intense pressure given a favourable consideration for Telengana. When, Telengana was announced, it was a yorker and looked stunned for a while. When he sensed that sentiment in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema was very strong against the bifurcation of state he changed the tone. Instead of fighting in Delhi where was real power to make or break a decision - he hit the roads of Coastal Andhra. His strategy,  this time is not stop to bifurcation but to retain the political base in the limited region. If Naidu were to announce like YSR, that he was not in favour of Telengana, no power at Delhi would have dared to take this decision.

Thinking too big of himself is Naidu's another obvious shortcoming. Despite wide and varied views, there is no denial of the fact that KCR is instrumental in Telengana creation. Naidu still thinks KCR is small time politician and plays down despite KCR huge political success. This is no small feat.

Naidu is good at hypothetical claims. First of them is, Naidu persistent claims that YSR Congress is merely a Congress proxy. What Naidu do not understand is, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is most popular politician in Coastal Andhra and Telengana. Here again, Naidu thinks too big of himself and as he did with KCR he downplays Jagan. Instead of hitting hard on real issues and real solution, Naidu has been clueless.

Naidu however had limited success in his own back yard. He successfully manoeuvred his brothers-in-law and ensured that NTR JR, a potential contender for leadership is checkmated. He cleared path to crown his his son Lokesh. It is interesting to note that Naidu was a ardent opponent of dynastic politics.

With all polls suggesting that Telugu Desam Party is going to beat the dust, slowly all the party cadres are deserting this great party once stood for the pride of Telugus. Naidu, having meekly surrendered, with no credibility left is just eking out with kitchen politics. What a great polical fall out for once tall leader, considered a visionary to be a minnow in his own state?

Bollywood Climax for Telengana

Going by the recent reports, majority people are lead to believe that Congress High Command is now close to take a decision on Telengana. Since Congress came to the power in 2004 the Political, Cultural, Economic and Social equations in the state are in constant flux. Soon after the sudden demise of YS Rajasekhar Reddy - during the tenure of Rosaiah  the state went through it's worst patch. However the current Chief Minister could moderate the situation to a great extent. As it stands, the Telengana movement is off the cliff. The Telengana Rastra Samithi (TRS) and it's maverick leader K Chandra Sekhara Rao (KCR) have more or less come to a conclusion that the current UPA government would not grant the Telengana statehood.

At this juncture, while the agitation is subdued and normalcy is returning in the state, recent decision of Union Home Minister Shinde is a surprise. This process, I would imagine it is more of a strategic move of Congress. It's survivability in power post 2014 elections, now firmly hangs on the numbers returned to Parliament from Andhra Pradesh.

Coming to the facts, it is an open secret that the Congress party and it's Government general health is very bad. The Congress MP numbers elected from Andhra Pradesh were key for the two term UPA Government. Also, Congress never formed Government at Delhi without winning Andhra Pradesh. If Congress were to form the next Government in 2014 and crown Rahul Gandhi the next Prime Minister - it is the time Congress must take some important strategic decisions.

From ground zero (the possibility of winning no seats), the decision should be purely for short term gains. Already some Congress spin doctors in Andhra region are singing to the tunes of High Command supporting Telengana State. The key challenge though is to take a prudent decision out of infinite options - including no decision.

To put it in plain and simple terms, formation of Telengana is more than a political decision. Passions would run very high on the other side in Seema-Andhra (as we have seen in Telengana region until now) and people would come on to the roads spontaneously.  While Telugu Desam got into the political trap, Jagan and his YSR Congress is non-committal on the bifurcation. When emotions raked up, logical explanation would not work. TDP and Congress would washout in elections. In a nutshell, YSR Congress clean sweep in both State and Parliament elections (in Seema - Andhra). It would become reckoning force in national political scene.

On the other side, in Telengana  - as it happened with Prajarajyam Party, TRS would merge with Congress. This combined political entity (Congress + TRS) would gain good numbers in elections, but it is not going to be a clean sweep. Hyderabad Metro area, Khammam, Nalgonda, Mahabub Nagar districts would become key battle grounds. It is hard to tell, but in all likelihood - YSR Congress may emerge winner in these close contests.

Since TRS would lose it's public identity, like PRP it would become irrelevant. TDP would continue to have another 5 years of opposition benches behind Congress in Andhra and behind YSR Congress in Telengana.

Now going back to Delhi backroom operator strategy, the numbers as a result of decision on  Telengana (pure bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh) would not help Congress and NDA. While this outcome is a disaster for TDP, Congress would as well pay a heavy price. Then why would Congress high command go for a decision that would immensely benefit their political opponent?

Hence, Congress would need a different strategy that would accommodate "interests" of the three regions in some ratio and at the same time maximize the benefit for the party. If full Telengana statehood is granted, then the credit would go to TRS and in particular KCR. Again while Congress is in power all the credit must go to Gandhi's. In the long run, though it could seek "strategic" understanding with the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy - it is difficult to imagine if Jagan would be a Chiranjeevi to surrender completely. Now that he has been languishing in the jail for too long, Jagan would definitely seek a political revenge. Immediate crowing of Rahul Gandhi is very difficult. Again the key question - why to take a decision comes back to the frame.

Here is crux of the issue - Hyderabad metro area.

Congress would have to come with a Bollywood movie style climax. Finish all the opponents and make the audience very happy. Make Madam Gandhi and Price Rahul heroes.

The theme is - Grant Telengana state without Hyderabad Metro. On the face of it, Telengana side politicians would at first resist the decision. As it is happening with Mayawati or Mulayam, Congress high command could use the "Assets" or "CBI" to force KCR and the vocal Congress leaders to silence. Any residual resistance would taper off once the passions subside. On face of it Telangana is granted. For KCR, ambition of becoming Chief Minister would be full filled, perhaps for one term. Subsequently,  the new Telengana State would be fertile ground for BJP.

On the other side in Rayalaseema and Andhra regions, as long is Hyderabad is out of newly proposed Telengana state, then all classes of people would be more or less satisfied. Political and business class would see potential opportunity to "develop" a new state (Seemandhra or Andhra Pradesh as it would be called). It is not difficult to sell both logic and emotions to the mass voters. Any resistance from united Andhra forces would similarly taper off soon afterwards.

Since MIM is out Congress favour (perhaps their strategic blunder), they have limited options to resist. As long as Hyderabad is kept out, on the face of it - it is good decision for Muslims. With long term prospects for  BJP on raise with in the new Telengana State, MIM also gain equally. If Hyderabad is made a new State (or Union Territory) - MIM is likely to form a Government sooner than later.

For Congress, this decision would ensure footing on either side of the fence. YSR Congress cannot sweep the state. Telegu Desam Party and Chandrababu Naidu would be blamed by all quarters. Congress back room operators can always play a secular card and form alliance with MIM.

New States would return to a sort of normalcy and 2014 elections run would kick off.

Rahul Gandhi would be praised for his extraordinary political acumen for resolving a complex issue simmering for nearly five decades or more!

Win for Congress and MIM. Partial win for TRS and YSR Congress. Total loss for TDP.

Jagan landslide and democarcy in dilemma

First time it was accident, second time it was luck - but if happens third time - it is a habit. Jagan Mohan Reddy as expected became a hero with resounding victories at Kadapa, Nellore and now across 16 constituencies in the state. These landslide victories have taught a lesson or two for most for his opponents. However, fresh questions have been raised by observers on the very genesis of his success with in the context of the democracy.

Executive, judiciary and legislature are the three pillars of the democracy. During the past 60 years, the key players in this System have made a mockery and the result is, a nation that has been paralyzed by non-performance and corruption scandals. As they have few options, citizens have elected scores of representatives with criminal records and sent them to both Parliament and state legislatures. Of them, until recently - Jagan Mohan Reddy is just one. However, with the game changing victories that knocked out Telugu Desam Party and Congress, fresh questions have been raised.

Some of the leaders in the state questioned the wisdom of the voters who have voted for the YSRCP. Some of the leaders branded the victory an emotional blackmail. Many of the bitter critics called it a doomsday. One high profile leader in the state even called it an accidental voting on account of circumstances. At once this victory moved the gravity from Jagan's corruption issues on which the elections have been fought by his opponents to, questioning citizens fundamental right in democracy - Vote.

Now the question is about who is right and who is wrong?

Jagan has been charged but he is not convicted. Taking the adage, no one is guilty until proven, people who have voted in the elections by and large did not believe what the Government of Andhra Pradesh, Eenadu, Andhra Jyothy, CBI, Congress Party and Chandra Babu Naidu have been claiming.

Within widely corrupted democratic system in India there are few holy cows. Some of the holy cows like Manmohan Singh, perhaps are more damaging to systems than the acknowledged rotten elements. Thus, there is locus standi for any debate based on corruption or honesty. As we have seen, when the time comes - all the forces across the party lines join to pip lokpal bill and in turn work towards damaging the reputation of Anna Hazare and his associates.

The key point is, the three pillars in democracy are expected to work for the poor, vulnerable and needy sections of the society. However, with the widening divide between rich and poor, most of the elected representative forget their constituents soon after getting a ticket to Delhi or Hyderabad. Despite all the allegations, both YS Rajasekhar Reddy and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy made the difference at this level. They have connected with the people. Listened to them. Tried to understand them. At the end, what matters to a voter is - how best they are taken care off. A mere statistic, or a simplified technocratic definition of poverty at Rs 26 per day, or a full meal to eke out a life?

When I visit a temple I do not question chastity of the priest. When I go to school, my focus is on how good my teacher is but not his background. At the end of the day, 99% people want solutions to their problems and opportunities for survival. Who cares if YSR or Jagan are corrupt as long as they take care of their constituents?

Many critics continue to question Jagan and his victory. May refuse to accept it. May come out statistics that his victory is not as convincing as it is seen. But the crux of the matter is Service to the Citizens. All those Congress and TDP leadership have amassed huge wealth and yet they cared little for the people. If they are serious to defeat Jagan, then there is no option but to connect with people and work for their welfare. It is high time if Chandrababu Naidu realize that, Eenadu with all the crap filings is key constituent of his down fall. Equally, Congress should have realized that, more they talk against YSR or Jagan they are exposing themselves.

The bottom line is, citizens are the foundation for the three pillar of the democracy. Despite all the allegation, Jagan's and YSRCP victory is honest in people court and it is in black and white. There is no scope for debate on this verdict.

Jaganmohan Reddy - Rock Solid Personality

There is nothing like a neutral opinion of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Either you love him or hate him. He commands extreme loyalty from his supporters. For them he is modern Robin Hood. Born for the masses and welfare of the needy. He sustains remarkable energy levels. No other politician in the state's history traveled as widely across the state as Jagan, without elections even on the horizon. He commands huge crowds at this rallies. Always smiles and keeps his cool on most of the occasions. Unlike most of the ultra-rich Andhra Pradesh politicians Jagan never claimed either he is poor or innocent. His was not a rags to riches story. His father, late YS Rajasekhar Reddy - and his grandfather Raja Reddy were rich by any standard during their own life times. For decades, this family hold on Kadapa political scene is near complete. Let it be in Congress or outside Congress, Kadapa remained their fortress.

For his critics, Jagan is an unethical and corrupt person to the core. He misused his father's power to the core and amassed billions of dollars. These figures are wide and varied. At one end, the estimated wealth crosses in excess of Rs 50,000 crores (that is Rs 500, 000 millions or  US $1billion). His bete noire claim it could be even four times. This staggering amount of wealth has been accumulated in a short span of about 5 years. Even by richer country standards making $1billion per year is not a mean task. However, officially Jagan declared asserts worth Rs 365 crores. At the same time, his wife owns assets worth 10 times more than himself. Going by norm as it is the case with most of the political and business class, his overall assets must be worth many time more. Besides misusing his father's power and amassing huge wealth, other chief allegation of his critics is centered his violent politics which is a norm in faction ridden Rayalaseema region. His name has been quoted by his opponents and their associated media - specially around the high profile murder of Paritala Ravi (Incidentally, Ravi himself was a product of the violent Rayalaseema politics, with many murder cases tagged to his name).

For neutral observers, Jagan is a strewed and power hungry politician. Soon after his father came to power, he started a big media company. Despite all the dubious accounts on it's genesis, Sakshi became a platform for providing alternative version and views to public. Until that point, Congress in the state did not have a vernacular media to provide a platform or support. Incidentally, Sakshi on some occasions successfully proved the dubious dealings of media baron Ramoji Rao with Eenadu facade that dented the reputation. Under the current jinxed circumstances, it is Sakshi providing Jagan with a saving grace - against a coordinated and scripted onslaught.

Jagan is a staunch Christian. Like Nehru-Gandhi family - Reddy tag is for public consumption. Jagan's great grandfathers' were converted Christians and there is no ambiguity. He is neither hypocritical like Rahul Gandhi who recently proclaimed himself a Brahmin. Rahul's mother Sonia Gandhi is Catholic, his father Rajiv Gandhi was born to a Hindu mother (Indira Gandhi) and a Parsi (Feroz Gandhi) with some claim that Feroz is of Muslim origins than Parsi . Interestingly, while many attributed YSR's political power and blessing from Delhi to his Christian faith (his master Sonia's faith), for Jagan it never mattered when he called shots at Sonia Gandhi.

Both Jagan and his father, know how to get best of their hereditary tags. In a nutshell, Jagan is acceptable face of dalits and dalit Christians who are the significant vote bank. His Reddy tag is good for Reddy dominated state politics. His wealth is good for the upper class opportunists like Businessmen and entrepreneurs. Going by the list of his close associates and benefactors from his father's time - most of them are Kamma's and few Reddi's. His party is filled with Kapu's who have been left in isolation by Chiranjeevi who is no more than a disaster in politics.

The arrest of Mopidevi Venkatarama, who comes from a backward class - provides the debating opportunity while, the upper caste ministers who have been charged have been spared for now from sending behind the bars. Jagan is strewed enough to exploit the opportunities. Not the least, there is no better time and opportunity to revive the Telugu people pride. No one stands a better chance than Jagan Mohan Reddy. Even his critics silently admit his public popularity. Perhaps, Jagan's direct confrontation with Congress high command may stem from his political acumen that Gandhi's power at Delhi is fast shrinking and it is the time of powerful regional satraps to decide who would sit in Delhi gaddi.

If I were to have Rs 50,000 crores or 4 times that amount - what would have I done? Why should I slog on the streets - day and night. Pick a direct confrontation with the most powerful political Gandhi family? Launch concurrent battle fronts with multiple opponents? Claim for a Chief Minister gaddi while father body was lying in state? Start a political party and take on do or die battles? Remain in public eye for wrong reasons? Risk getting arrested? and expose oneself and become vulnerable?

The singular answer is Jaganmohan Reddy is not from the standard school of politicians. He comes with incessant energy levels and Leading from the front mindset. Since NT Ramarao, on other politician in the state stirred so much of interest, passion and public debate in the state politics. Like his father, who struggled all along his political career, Jagan political career as well is a bumpy ride thus far. What ever is likely to happen in the coming months, for now - only one who can silence Jagan looks like Jagan himself. His critics and supports may continue to differ widely on opinions and views but, Jagan till now proved to be a strong willed, resilient and rock solid personality.

12 June 2012 Elections: Is it a test for Political Parties?

Telengana, that was the battleground of all the elections fought after 2004, is not the core issue for the elections slated on June 12, 2012. This election campaign is already deep into a murky territory - strangely centered around corruption agenda. The three parties Congress, YSR Congress and Telugu Desam Party are fighting hard to finish the opponents - many are calling Semi-finals. Every party is using all the means and options at their disposal to crush the others and prove their chastity, honesty and commitment to the citizens and state development.

For the past couple of years, Anna Hazare team at the national level is fighting hard to fight against the corrupt system. Congress in particular has been in deep trouble on account of Anna's onslaught. Series of national scandals, small and big shook the confidence of the nation. Even the hardcore Congress supporters are on defense when valid questions have been raised. The questions like, non performing Prime Minister, power at 10 Janpath, lack of charisma of Prince Rahul Gandhi and debacle in Utter Pradesh Elections, the tussle with Gen VK Sharma on the Army preparedness may never get convincing answers. The state of BJP is even worse. With Vajpayee fading out of limelight, BJP is struggling hard to find an acceptable face. Even otherwise, the state of affairs in Karnataka and corruptions scandals have put the Opposition on a defensive sticky wicket.

The Congress in Andhra Pradesh is at it worst since 1980-82 period. Rocked by corruption scandals, ineffective administration, blatant misuse of power and infighting - it does on have any credibility. The liquor scandals and taming the upright officers is just one example to show how Government deals with real issues and corruption.With this track record, Congress without any doubt using the power to cut Jagan Mohan Reddy's tail and brand him Mr. Corrupt. The swift action from CBI and it's decisive move to cut-off the financial roots is just a political act with official veil.

If the corruption is the plank for the election battle, Telugu Desam Party standing is no better. Despite working hard to prove the honesty, very few believe Chandra Babu Naidu honesty. Leaving aside his rule, even while in the opposition - Naidu is largely surrounded by businessmen whose meteoric raise is as questionable as Naidu's own. There are many people who still believe Naidu amassed huge wealth while in power but cleverly channeled the sums. Naidu is the architect of the economic liberalization of the state, and during his 9 year rule lot more people have benefited by skyrocketing real estate prices in and around Hyderabad state. Despite coming from very humble origins, Naidu is not a middle class person by any measure.

This comes to YS Jaganmohan Reddy who is largely on the receiving end. Both for TDP and Congress, Jagan is the prime target. Both are equally aware of the dangers, if Jagan were to emerge victorious. If Congress is using Official machinery to hunt down Jagan, Eenadu and Andhra Jyothy the staunch TDP supporters are working round the clock to paint him a villain.

The strange thing is, while working hard to expose Jagan's ill-gotten wealth, both Congress and TDP are picturing themselves honest and holy cows. Instead of corruption, those voters ready to decide the Semi Final results may have judge on wider repercussions and key considerations:

1. YSR Congress Party was never is in power. Unlike Congress and TDP which were blown on and off by number of corruptions scandals, the key question is - is Jagan guilty and corrupt? The verdict is not out. Remember - YS Rajasekhar Reddy branded Naidu a corrupt politician to the core and now Congress is working hard to prove YSR and regime was corrupt. Hence, corruption does not have a locus standi in the battleground.

2. Congress is in terminal state. Now the question is who is next to rule the state? Choice is between Naidu and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy only. Kiran Kumar Reddy is at the mercy of the Sonia Gandhi. He does not have his own ground and standing.

3. Who is capable of keeping the state peaceful and move into the development direction. Congress has failed. Jagan is untested. Naidu is untrusted.

4. Who got the guts to fight the weak central government on the lines of Jayalalithaa or Mamata Banerjee? Naidu is good at protecting his interests. Jagan proved a firebrand till now but he is not tested

5. Who got credibility? Naidu again stands at the lowest point. Jagan appears a shade above. None of the Congress leaders do not stand anywhere on the scale. What is Chiranjeevi standing now?

What is means? It is the real test for voter. Deciding to vote on a propaganda onslaught may prove disastrous for the state. Welcome Mr Narasimhan!

Common fate of Great Telugu Political leadership

Telugu speaking have been divided for ages. Until 50-60 years back they were split in between Nizam of Hyderabad and British. Prior to that, they were split during the times of Moguls, Vijayanagara empire, Kaktiyas, Kalinga period, Chola times. If we go into the history the state of Andhra Pradesh as it exists now, it has been split amongst three or even four kingdoms at any given time.

The controversial issue of passing predominantly Telugu speaking Madras City into Tamil hands, or Bellary District into Mysore state or Berhampur to Orissa are few but striking examples, reflecting dis-unity amongst the Telugu speaking people.

Along the lines of this geographic separation, Telugu people, Telugu media and Telugu political leadership paid a significant role to pull down their own rising stars over the past. As a result, despite occasional resurgence, Telugu people by and large loved to live as gulaams (virtually slaves) under non-Telugus.

Let's start with Tanguturi Prakasam, one of the 1st Telugu Leaders in the erstwhile Madras state to get into the prominence.  All his life, he waged constant war against Tamil leadership and Congress high command in Delhi. Despite he was popular mass leader in the Madras Presidency - in the end, it was our own Telugu political leadership conspiring with Tamils and Delhi sidelined Tangutiri Prakasam Pantalu. A wealthy barrister, Prakasam sacrificed all his life and wealth for the freedom struggle, yet died a poor man.While Prakasam's contemporaries in Tamil land like Rajaji, Periar and Annadurai were feted and revered even today, Prakasam was almost forgotten during his life time and less said about him is better now.

Neelam Sanjiva Reddy, the 1st Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh was one of the powerful leaders of his times. Honest and able administrator, decades later when he contested for the Presidency of India - Indira Gandhi fielded another fellow Telugu person - Varahahiri Venkata Giri. Despite being the official congress candidate - Sanjiva Reddy lost the election. Though there was no personal rivalry between Reddy and Giri - in the end, Reddy, one of the respected leaders of Andhra Pradesh lost because of slave mindset of Telugu's. It was a different story that, Sanjiva Reddy went on to become the President of India a decade later. In comparison, examine the kind of respect Kamaraj gets in Tamil Nadu though he was never a President of India.

PV Narasimha Rao, rated one of the best Prime Ministers India ever had, was never respected in his home state. Despite changing the fortunes of India for good, in the end - Rao was humiliated in his later years and in his death. Sonia's personal apathy and the events that unfolded following his death were blatantly clear to one and all. But the stock silence of all Telugu people, Telugu media and more importantly by the fellow congressmen for all the humiliation meted to one of Scholarly Prime Minsters of India is just another example of slave mindset of Telugus. There is no denial of the fact and role played by the then Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister YS Rajasekhar Reddy to bury Rao's legacy. Despite the strong demand to name the Hyderabad airport after Rao or NT Ramarao, YS Rajasekhar Reddy true to his gulaami nature named the airport after Rajiv Gandhi.

NT Rama Rao, greatest leader of the Telugu speaking people - died in isolation and humiliation. Despite his extraordinary wins and shooting down Congress to bring an end to the Delhi rule, Ramarao was stabbed by his Sons, daughters, second wife, Telugu media, Telugu political leadership. Despite all the efforts to bury NTR legacy by none other than Chandrababu Naidu, NTR remains the most popular Telugu leader even in his death. It is shocking to see the leaders like KCR and TRS picking on NTR and Telugu Desam Party - though everyone knows KCR political birth and subsequent success  was only because of a great leader like NTR.

For Naidu, despite all the hi tech success during his regime is struggling to survive on account of his credibility and back stabbing from the fellow leadership with in and outside TDP. Chiranjeevi was never a great political leader nor a rising star. Yet, political future of Megastar it is now in black and white. His community, media, Congress leadership and himself contribute to this common fate.

After doing all the gulaami job while in power, now YS Rajasekhar Reddy is now facing the similar situation in his death. Congress leaders both in state and Delhi are working round the clock to bury YSR legacy and also re-picture him as the most corrupt Chief Minister of AP. Media like Eenadu and Andhra Jyothy are have already pronounced guilty verdict even before case went to court. This is almost akin to what happened to PV in case of Babri Masjid issue. Congress knows well how to disown their own leaders if the circumstances demand and Delhi high command is willing. All gulaami leaders would be ready with ammunition to fire the shots from all the vantage points. Probably YS Jagan was right in one way to leave Congress and start his own party. It is too early to predict what is going to be Jagan's fate. Despite all the allegations, Jagan is the most popular leader in the state. If the history of Telugus is a yardstick for evaluating an outcome, Jagan's fate would be no different - sooner or later.

In the end, it is called the common fate of the gulaami Telugu leaders

Jagan - On road to becoming a Hero

Half is my effort or Half is God's blessing. Or it is the case that, a third is my hard work, a third is Yellow media and finally a third is Delhi's incapability? All in all, Jagan is mostly likely be a hero in coming days. Having come this far, CBI cannot backtrack on the case and accusations made against Jaganmohan Reddy. If it back tracks, Jagan is going to see early victory and vindication. If get's arrested, the state will see another crisis and eventually Jagan with his tremendous energy and resources would know how to turn the event for his success. And finally, if CBI presents the case in the Court - on circumstantial evidences - Government and CBI would loose the case. This is going to be a triple whammy for all the forces that have been waging both a direct and indirect war against Jagan.

Who are these three? On the top of the list is Ramoji Rao of Eenadu. A single day would not pass without making wide allegations and seemingly acceptable facts of culpability of both Jagan and YS Rajasekhar Reddy. Even if the adage that repeated lies may eventually be accepted as facts is true, due to intense personal apathy - Ramoji Rao is risking the credibility of his Eenadu which has been house hold name for decades. In this battle, David and Goliath resembling story, Jagan is having all the long term advantage. At some point, Jagan would definitely thank Eenadu and Ramoji Rao for all the free coverage and their efforts to keep him alive in public memory.

The second force is Madam Sonia Gandhi and her high command.  They have applied same strategy of nullifying their bitter enemies by using CBI as their front end tool. However, Sonia and her team failed to realize that Jagan is now most popular mass leader in the state and command significant following. With the state congress, never in such a dire state for at least 3 decades, and a dysfunctional government, failing opposition party, people in the state are desperately looking for a change. Jagan fits into the shoes well. By pushing CBI, Congress is now likely help Jagan by failing to prove his culpability in the illegal assets case. If this happens, the only black mark on Jagan will erase for good and he will have a free run.

The third factor is ubiquitous caste factor. All signs around point that Congress is now moving towards, Kapu community. With Telugu Desam branded now a pro-Kamma Party - the powerful Reddy community is now at cross roads. If it is certain that the Kiran Kumar Reddy will be replaced, by a non-Reddy Telengana Leader -then the questions become deeper and probing. With considerable evidence that people are least bothered about the corruption allegations against YSR family by handing them sound victories in the elections - Jagan is slowly providing to be acceptable leader. All the other 'discarded' castes will slowly drift towards Jagan.

I still doubt if Jagan will win a landslide in 2014, but he will remain a strong contender for a such result provided he make rights moves and the rest of his enemies continue to repeat mistakes based on a wrong agenda.

AP State: Politcal & Power Equations Impending Shift

From around 2008, Andhra Pradesh effectively entered into the 4th phase of political power shift from the currently dominant Reddy to Kapu community. In AP, while Caste is ubiquitous factor in all the facets of life, in politics this is the predominant factor for Power.

Until independence while Andhra was part of Madras State, Brahmins were dominant political force. Being wealthy at that time, their education and willingness to migrate to urban centres helped them to lead politically. As a result, most of the 1st generation leaders of this time were Brahmins. Similar situation to a lesser extent prevailed even in erstwhile Hyderabad state. Tanguturi Prakasam and Burgula Ramakrishna Rao both Brahmins, were the 1st Chief Ministers of Andhra and Hyderabad states respectively. . Brahmin M.P's and M.L.A's have significant numbers perhaps until the formation of Andhra Pradesh state in 1956.

Since 1956 the Reddy's have become politically dominant. Successive Chief Ministers since Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy were Reddy's until 1983. While Brahmins migration to urban centres disconnected them in the predominantly rural state from their roots (vote banks), Reddy's strength stems from their hold on lands and agriculture. With their wealth and economic dominance, Reddy's have virtually controlled the state politics. During the course of time, Reddy's consolidated their hold on Education and entered into diversified fields but always ensured the grip on their roots. The Reddy tag become so much aligned with political power in the state that, even non-Reddies started suffixing their names with Reddy. This 2nd phase was longest period of political authority by a single community. Despite PV Narasimha Rao becoming Prime Minister Brahmins virtually were out of the political power structure.

Like Reddy's, Kamma community as well come with similar socio-economic background. Being agriculturists and landlords, their main focus was movies, business and other fields than politics until late late 1970's. Kammas have had a meteoric political raise, thanks to NT Rama Rao. Since then, until the defeat of N Chandrababu Naidu in 2004, the Phase-3 of the Power shift was heavily in the hands of this community.

It is hard to say, if YS Rajasekhar Reddy years were of Reddy dominance. YSR was open and frank of his Christian Religion and during his time, apart from his own family the people who gained were mostly from the diversified communities.

It was a open secret that Chiranjeevi political entry was to assert the Kapu Community and shift the power balance. Since the death of YSR and departure of Jagan from Congress - role of Kapu community is on steady raise. Unlike Brahmins (3%), Reddy's (7%-10%)and Kamma's (3%)- Kapu's have numerical strength. With the amalgamation of sub-sects they are the single largest community in the state. Despite having fair share in Assembly and Parliament, they were more or less restricted from entering the power corridors. This was largely due to lack of the education, social and political awareness and more importantly realisation of their own strengths. Thanks to the ongoing Telengana movement, the other backwards and scheduled castes also asserting their political significance. Also during the course of past 2 decades, all the communities have become wealthy and entered into the diversified fields. The traditional land owning patterns also have started to change though, slowly.  Finally everyone in politics have mastered the art of winning the power.

Reddy community success is now more or less depends on the fortunes of Jagan Mohan Reddy. Kamma's  traditional alignment with Telugu Desam, and the emergence of Kapu's pushed them into the 3rd (or 4th) position in Congress. Even the Kamma leaders who have had the opportunity in power corridors are playing safe - for their personal gains. Unless, TDP returns to the power - Kamma's are net losers. Even if TDP is successful, Naidu cannot ignore the Kapu's who would take the large chunk of power. With internal power struggles within Nara and Nandamuri clans, once a clean party is looking very vulnerable from their own community. There is no hope for Telugu Brahmins politically in the state - mainly because they do not have a strategy and unity (this the 1st and the last community in the state to announce Telengana Brahmins associations etc).

This is the decisive phase while power shifts for the first time from forward communities to Kapus and backward communities. The trends are clear. For example, Bosta family virtually controls the north coastal Andhra Pradesh. There is no single family in the state with such a grip. Even Jagan is restricted to Kadapa only. Chiranjeevi is their lucky mascot for the community for political gains. This is already evident.

As I see, 2014 would see the dominance of Kapu's in the power corridors and already politically hypersensitive state would face more uncertainties on account of this power shift and impending power struggle.

Chiranjeevi - The Mega Disaster

Despite the persistent political chaos in Andhra Pradesh, 2011 elevated the fortunes of many leaders in the bargain politics. Without getting anything substantial even after bringing the State virtually to grinding halt for more than two months, K Chandrasekhar Rao remains the powerful political force. Lacking almost all the qualities needed to run an Indian State in the modern times, Chief Minister Kirankumar Reddy's political graph swung into a bull territory. Botsa, the new PCC chief emerged equally a powerful entity in the State political scene this year. Despite the onslaught from CBI (read Congress High Command)  YS Jaganmohan Reddy remains evergreen, dynamic, heroic and the potential political bulldozer.  Despite being in political oblivion for most of the year, fortunes of  Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party (TDP) have surprisingly on uptrend. KK, Kaka and VH the self proclaimed Telangana heroes have been squared up by the Delhi political bosses.

This leaves, the Megastar Chiranjeevi who moved from reasonably commanding position with in the  state political scene to a damp squib. I think, Chiranjeevi represents a text book case for any politician in the state - "how to fail?". Chiru started with a hype. Just taking a single page from NT Rama Rao meteoric raise in the politics. Just because, he was in a similar position in Tollywood as undisputed number#1 hero, like NTR - Chiru thought that he could repeat the same magic and become the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. Chiru is not NTR let it be on silver screen or in politics.

NTR had a clear vision. His vision stems from the then prevailing pathetic political scenario in AP. Unlike Chiranjeevi, NTR was a learned man. He was emotional yet had lot of clarity. He was eccentric yet, there was consistency. He was independent yet, a first class leader. He dared to challenge, worked against odds and delivered to the people on promises. He attracted the young and talented. Finally, NTR cultivated his political base - predominately around the backward classes who until then had no political representation in the state Though he had his own share of failures, on the balance - NTR status is legendary.

Chiranjeevi had no vision. His ambition was to become Chief Minister with out cultivation of a strong political base. Despite coming from a numerously strong Kapu Community, Chiru was defeated in his political heartland - Palacole. Chiru was emotional but had no vision. He could not convey a meaningful message. Unlike NTR, this time Chiru was facing perhaps two of the strongest political leaders in YSR and CBN. Chiru's understanding of social, political and cultural history of Andhra Pradesh was below the par of a X class student. By any measure he is not a learned man. Chiru, did not have stamina and conviction that he could make it to the top. He basically took a gamble around his screen image. He sold his brand name and in the process made a personal fortune for himself. In this internet era, Chiru's Public relation skills are at best counter productive.

Nurturing and cultivating a political base is key for a Leaders' success (Manmohan Singh is no exception though his political base is just around a single square plot of land - 10, Janpath). Even the so called modern mass leader, Y S Rajasekhar Reddy is no exception. He toiled hard for decades and cultivated his own political back yard regionally, on caste and religious lines, and at the national level.

Election records clearly indicate that, but for Chiranjeevi entry Congress would have lost 2009 elections. Then with his 18 member elected MLA count, Chiru saved Kiran Kumar Reddy Government in 2011. The Two big services to the AP state!. In the process, from a position of the Leader of a political party, he zeroed himself to nothing. Even Majlis with a mere strength of 5 members know better of bargaining politics than novice Chiranjeevi.

Now, Chiranjeevi ambitions have zeroed to a Cabinet post either at Delhi or in Hyderabad. Chiranjeevi despite all the public display of his comical statements and emotions does not understand the Congress and Delhi High Command. Congress in a nutshell is a Trading Party. This means, one should bring something on the table - to get something back in return. Ajit Singh brought 5 MP's and a huge percentage of votes that would add up to Congress in upcoming UP elections. Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi or Mamata Benerjee all have something to trade - otherwise a constant threat to government and it's survival.

Chiranjeevi and his 18 numbers have no real value. Congress can easily buy them off at any time. Chiranjeevi does not have a political base (like Majlis), Political acumen (like PV), brand integrity (like Manmohan Singh), backroom maneuvering skills (Kavuri or Rayapati), mass following (like KCR), money (like Lagadapati or Jagan) and finally with in his own Kapu Community he is not even the strongest leader (like Botsa). This leaves Chiranjeevi with the tainted silver screen legacy. When the next elections come up, Chiru is not even a guaranteed crowd puller (perhaps, he will have to compete with the likes of NTR Jr, who is a better orator by yards).

In summary, if there is no intrinsic value to put on the table and trade - with in Congress party there won't be any value or recognition. Unless something extraordinary happens, 2011 marks the end of Chiranjeevi political career. He may dream of Cabinet berths but High Command would not bless with anything substantial. Chiranjeevi is in no better position than the "intelligent" lawyer he played in one of his blockbuster movie Abhilasha. Ironically, the screen name also was Chiranjeevi.

It is a Mega disaster!

Jagan Success, Corruption and Future

Indrasena Reddy, Samasinha Reddy, Adi Kesava Reddy and now Jaganmohan Reddy!. I loved watching the first three Reddy's on the Tollywood Screens. Today, we have seen the fourth Reddy, Jagan in the real life. Challenge, action and job done! Even his die hard followers would not have anticipated this spectacular result. This is the result Jagan cannot even sustain or repeat even in the next election. Call it hard work, alternative option, money magic, Kadapa bomb culture or credibility of the family - the result once for all cemented many open questions until now are the platform for debates.

As I said in my one of my earlier blogs, not many political personalities survived challenging, Nehru's or Gandhi's (from Mahatma Gandhi to Sonia Gandhi). That element of fear was seen even in YS Rajasekhar Reddy - and hence he always attributed all his political success and political survival to I, R and S Gandhi's. Jagan took a different path. Challenged Sonia Gandhi in public and then unlike any other politician in the contemporary politics (unprecedented)- resigned for the MP position and along with his mother Vijayalakshmi's MLA seat, came out in public and fought a real war. This is no simple battle. For all others, it is one of their elections battles. For Jagan it is do or die situation. Had he lost the election or won with any thing but huge margin - his political career is finished. By all means, he proved to be honest and upfront in his fight. Despite, 18 Cabinet Ministers of the state camping in Kadapa along with Kiran Kumar Reddy personal interest under Sonia Gandhi watch, Jagan won against huge odds. Well done!

Now coming to question of how Jagan won the election. The Telugu Desam Party and their Yellow media might say it his illegally earned money that won him the seat. According to the accounts Rs 300 Crores was spent in the campaign. Of that even assuming Jagan's share is 50%, the rest is spent by TDP and Congress. There is no doubt that, even that money is unaccounted or black money since Election rules does not permit spending beyond certain limit. Basicaly all all black sheep and Jagan's colour is a little dark.

Now coming to the Jagan's wealth and meteoric raise, I  liked the explanation given by Vundavalli Arun Kumar in "Open Heart with RK" (one of the best programs to watch basically due to Vemuri Radhakrishna's lucid style).

Incidentally Arun Kumar, a 2nd term MP from Rajahmundry -  was a staunch follower of YS Rajasekhar Reddy, but now having a soured relationship with Jagan was attacked by YSR Congress and Jagan coterie. Coming to the point, Vundavalli clearly explained the difference between Ramoji Rao and YS Jaganmohan Reddy wealth and why Jagan is legally correct even though Technically (by Dharma) could be wrong. However, neither Eenadu nor Chandrababu Naidu would stop continue their assault (though their origins were lot worse than Jagan's). (I am not supporting Jagan in any way. But my view that all these politicians are corrupt does not need any special attention for Jagan as an issue)

Now coming to the future - if attaining success is a challenge, sustaining is going to be even more a gigantic task. For all, we have seen Jagan is less a politician and more a firebrand Leader. Probably his assets could be like his father credibility and trust. The clear verdict would be a disaster for Congress. How Telugu Desam is going to revive would depend more on Jagan's strategic mistakes than Chandrababu Naidu Chanakya neethi. Though at the outset TRS is happy with Jagan's win with the hope that a decision on Telangana would be taken, Jagan like his father would not support bifurcation. With Mamata Benerjee and Jayalalithaa in power any state bifurcation would have serious resistance from West Bengal and Tamil Nadu due cascading effects. The only serious possibility of TRS merging with Congress also look a feeble option.

With this election, I think for the first time - since 1983 election - YSR family established itself as the first political family of the state, displacing Nadamuri-Nara families. With even spread of Reddy's across the state, YS Jagan vote bank and appeal would be strongest across the state than any other leader. With Naidu struggling with Telangana revolt internally, Congress without any leaders, Brand Jagan is perfectly placed to take a jolly ride. Will he succeed or how much, time only would tell.

From 13th May 2011, Andhra Pradesh politics, political equations and political power changed forever by a the real life Kadapa Reddy

Why Jagan win & Telangana State linked

If we go by current indications, the discussion is not around who will win the Kadapa and Pulivendula elections. It is more about margin of victory and who will come second between Telugu Desam Party and Congress candidates.

Despite all this, High command in Delhi is pulling all it's "resources" at their disposal to see YSR congress party is defeated. I think the loss for Congress, irrespective of where it would stand in the counting would have serious consequences at national level. That is why we are seeing 8 or 9 Jagan Mohan Reddy's in field. It may sound as though Congress wanted teach a lesson for YS Jaganmohan Reddy. The fact otherwise is, a loss here would mean a serious blow Congress political base.

Today, looking at the Congress Government performance since 2009 - even under the normal circumstances it would be very difficult for them to return to the power in 2014. Considering the pathetic situation of Telugu Desam Party, merger of Chiranjeevi into Congress and the extremely volatile fortunes of Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) - in a nutshell there is no clear alternative for the Congress in the state.

Telugu Desam is non existent in Telangana region. With in the Andhra region, it does not hold a landslide support either - though the fortunes are better. Congress situation is almost similar. In Telangana - it's position is dependent on emotional factors rather than a solid base. This support base could be shifted away by KCR in TRS favour with his charged speeches. All in all, looking forward to 2014, the state is not really keen to vote for incumbent party but - there is no choice.

I think - Jaganmohan Reddy's one of the calculations must be based on this political vacuum.

Today both in Congress and TDP there are lot of fence sitters who would be willing to go enmasse with YSR Congress, provided he comes out victorious. In addition to Reddy base, I think Jagan is having strong support from Kapu's and minorities. This vote base would be good enough for him - to win Andhra and Rayalaseema regions. The fortunes in Telangana region would be dependent on his political strategies. One of them could be a tactical understanding with TRS. If this happens, Andhra and Rayalaseema regions would go with YSR Congress and TRS would take Telangana.

For Congress this would be a serious blow. It would be loosing 42 seats in loksabha and getting back into power is impossible.

Now congress needs a political strategy. One of the options is - announce Telangana State with the condition that, TRS would merge with Congress and that KCR would prostrate in front of 10, Janpath. If Telangana comes, KCR would be happy to do this merger. Congress can now count 9-10 loksabha seats.

All the political and social unrest that we have been seeing in Telangana region would shift to Andhra - Rayalaseema regions. But Congress fortunes would dramatically improve in Telangana.

Now Andhra and Rayalaseema would be new battle ground. In addition to the spontaneous outburst from the public - the impossible looks possible - that is a strategic understanding between and TDP and YSR Congress for the united Andhra Pradesh. In politics no one is a permanent friend or a foe. Let is be Unvadalli or Chiranjeevi - opportunities build the bridges and they break them in wider context

One thing is sure - Kadapa election would decide amongst many the prospects for the Telangana state.

Kadapa and Pulivendula fight to Finish

No single election would have ever decided the future of so many politicians and political parties in Andhra Pradesh state. For winners and losers their future would never be same again - and here comes mother of all political battles, Kadapa and Pulivendula.

Let's start with YS Jaganmohan Reddy (today officially declared the richest politician in India). If he and his mother Vijayalakshmi could not win both the seats - for now Jagan political future is over. For all the firebrand displays, the muscle power and the mobilization of resources - this is the worst outcome. He would be deserted by everyone including his closed and most vocal supporters. Jagan would be attacked at his business foundations and it would be impossible for him to survive the mighty congress and Yellow Media onslaught. The biggest beneficiaries of this outcome: Ramoji Rao (Eenadu) and Vemuri Radha Krishna (Andhra Jyothy) as their media empire can pip Sakshi. For Congress and TDP on the whole it would not be any major impact - since Jagan would be written off as a flash.

If Telugu Desam Party, after all the search light operations to find a "candidate" looses both the seats to YSR Congress - it is the beginning to the end of Telugu Desam Party. Already beaten out off Telangana Region, Chandrababu Naidu could forget his dreams of 2014. Having seen the recent "proxy" revolt from Harikrishna and Nandamuri family (less Balakrishna), the key question would be "who will revive this party and bring it back to the glory days of NTR". Naidu would be a liability than an asset by any measure both for party, sympathisers and Telugu people as well. This is in a way, second best option for the Congress Party (if it comes second in the order). It can join with the Telangana Rasta Samithi (TRS) leader KCR and achieve the common objective of finishing TDP once for all. With Jagan's victory, there will be huge exodus from TDP & Congress. The time would have arrived for emergence of a true Leader with in TDP not a political manipulator like Naidu. In way, it is good for TDP provided - if a leader emerges out of the political chaos. Biggest beneficiaries of this out come: K Chandrasekhar Rao

Going by indications, the likelihood of TDP winning even a single seat is at odds. However, if out of magic - in case TDP could beat YSR Congress and Congress to win one seat, and YSR Congress wins other seat -  then Andhra and Rayalaseema politics would be further fragmented. This does not help TDP revival in Telangana. There are no immediate winners or beneficiaries. But the biggest looser will be Kiran Kumar Reddy and D Shrinivas

The worst scenario is Congress winning both the seats. This will push state into further crisis. Already limping with worst administration and absence of political leadership - it would be impossible to stop Congress leaders. In a way, this is end of YSR Congress and Jagan. For TDP, Naidu may play a tone that the party never held any grip in this part of state (only if it comes second above YSR congress). YS Rajasekhara Reddy legacy is now transferred to Congress. And all Congress leaders at Hyderabad and Delhi will make it a point to finish any of YSR credible legacy into history (like it happened with PV Narasimha Rao). Biggest beneficiaries: TDP rebels and TDP Telengana leaders.

As it is generally predicted at this point, if YSR Congress wins both the seats -then without any doubt, both Congress and Telugu Desam Party would plunge into crisis. With no hope of TDP winning 2014, all equations will shift. All the fence sitters in both the parties, would come out in open. Congress high command for the first time since 1983 (after NTR shock victory), would see the biggest threat to its solid power base. And for Congress it will be beginning to end of Government in Delhi. No Congress Government formed in Delhi, without winning Andhra Pradesh. And Congress knows this - and hence it is investing all the time and energy to avoid the debacle. Biggest looser: "Prince" Rahul Gandhi the Prime Minister in waiting.

Without any doubt, Kadapa and Pulivendula elections are fight to finish. Strangely, the out come of the result in either way - would not have any impact on the political fortunes of YS Vivekananda Reddy, DL Ravindra Reddy or  other candidates. Everyone knows, they are just pawns in the larger political game.

For one thing, YS Jagan must be admired for his guts to take on two powerful parties.

Tale of two modern Indian Princes

There is only one prince in the national level politics - Rahul Gandhi. And again, there is only one prince in the Andhra Pradesh politics - YS Jaganmohan Reddy. Both Rahul and Jagan have "illustrious" family histories. First of all, both the families are Christians. Rahul's father, Rajiv Gandhi was Prime Minister of India. Jagan's father YS Rajasekhar Reddy, was Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. If Rahul's family is the powerful political family in India, Jagan's family too is the powerful political family in Andhra Pradesh. If Rahul'a father was assassinated the LTTE, Jagan's father YSR was killed in a helicopter crash while on duty (though Jagan still believes that there was a huge conspiracy behind his father's helicopter crash)

Rahul's grandmother, Indira Gandhi was killed by Sikh bodyguards. Again, Jagan's grandfather was killed by factionists in Kadapa district. Rahul's cousin (Varun Gandhi), aunt (Menaka Gandhi), uncle (Sanjay Gandhi) mother (Sonia Gandhi), father (Feroze Gandhi), Grandfather (Jawahar Lal Nehru) were all MP's (Member's of Parliament).  Jagan's father (YSR), uncle (YS Vivekananda Reddy), mother (Vijalakshmi) and host of relatives by marriages etc were either MP's, MLA's or public representatives.

It is always rumoured that Rahul's family hold huge undisclosed amount's in the Swiss banks. Again, it is a open secret in Andhra Pradesh and amongst the Telugu Community that YSR, Son, Daughter & Co are worth at least Rs 20,000 crores. The bottom line is both the princes are filthy rich.

Rahul's Grandfather - Jawarlal Nehru was a Kashmiri Brahmin Hindu. His daughter Indira married Feroz who is of a Muslim / Parsi lineage. His father Rajiv married, Sonia - Italian Catholic. His uncle Sanjay married a Sikh lady. It is mini India plus a mini world. Jagan's great grand father was an Hindu Reddy but converted to Christianity. It is hard to know if YSR family is actually a Christian or Hindu. Jagan's sister married Hindu Brahmin converted Christian preacher. And most of the family marriages are between Hindu or Christian Reddy's. Hence is it mini integration.

Rahul minus Gandhi is like any average Indian without face. Despite all the hype, Rahul could not pull any magic in any one of the polls either in Bihar, Utter Pradesh, Gujerat. He is of no consequence in the states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala or West Bengal. Andhra Pradesh is slipping. Karnataka is on edge. Maharastra is offering mixed fortunes. But, Prince Rahul, the most eligible bachelor of India is still seen as a future Prime Minister of India. Well, he may as well become the next PM. Not because he got any great differentiators like his grandmother Indira, but only because the opposition BJP is in poor shape.

All the strategy to keep Manmohan Singh in stop gap, so that Prince could make a landslide is now looking like a misfired strategy. Like Tata, Birla, Ambani - Gandhi is always in reckoning for some time to come. Only feel good factor is - Prince is not in hurry because he knows any way, BJP could match even his skeleton strength of power / intellect. This is despite the fact, Rahul's reported comments with the US Ambassodor to India "Hindu fundamentals pose greater threat to nation than LeT, the Muslim terror organisation". In the nation of 80% Hindu's, Rahul comments would be accomodated (or forgotten) for the only reason because the BJP is not an alternative. The nation needs alternative but suffers from the leadership talent.

Jagan is the Prince in hurry. His father tasted the power, after 20 years in opposition or as a dissident in the congress party. The power came in time for Jagan. He tasted it at right age. Now power is sucking him. He cannot wait even one more day with out being the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. The only difference for Jagan is - he is untested. Yes, when he won Kadapa - his father was at zenith of his power. It was a cake walk. Now, the first test comes - if he could win on his own and bring his unnamed party to the power? Unlike at Delhi, where the national prince is having the advantage of the weak opposition, Jagan is facing three strong opposition parties in Telugu Desam, Congress and TRS. Despite all these odds, if Jagan makes it to Andhra Pradesh Secretariat, he is the real life hero - the only one after iconic NTR.

Finally what is the track record? Rahul Gandhi, as an MP, did not have any track record in Parliament or outside. He never held an Public office. Similarly, Jagan as first time MP, did not show any Parliamentary acumen. Neither he held any Public office. In a nutshell both are raw.

Until the next ballot box is opened, both the princes will remain in limelight. And that is no surprise because, one is Gandhi and other is Reddy.

Jagan battle comes to end! what about the war?

YS Jaganmohan Reddy waged the longest public battle in the Andhra Pradesh Politics. Except for the occasional Telangana flareups, Jagan was all along in the media headlines, limelight and gossip. Hardly known beyond the power brokers circle during his father's tenure, Jagan had a meteoric raise in the state politics. He was named by many, the most "charismatic" politician in the state politics. And perhaps, Jagan too thinks so!

He showed tremendous energy, defiance, confidence and arrogance during the course of time in his public life.

"You like me, or loath me but you cannot ignore me" summarise the character of this 37 year son of YS Rajasekhara Reddy. Also, there are some striking differences when we compare him with his father. First of all, Jagan appears to be a poor listener. Secondly, while his father appeared more confident on all aspects, Jagan looks arrogant with little room for reflection. This kind of personality rarely survives in politics. Third, while his father never went head on with any one including his arch rivals, Jagan directly took on 10, Janpath - the powerful political family in India. No one politically survived after waging a war with Gandhi - Nehru dynasty.

After, near 14 month battle with the congress high command, he quit from the Congress. But, he made more enemies than friends and in fact, many friends have now become - foes. I am sure, Jagan would not keep quiet unless he is further crippled off his resources by the Congress Government. 

Looking at "The Art of the War" quotations, I am just amazed to see how Jagan engaged his battle exactly the opposite way, to what Sun Tzu said in 250 BC. YS Jaganmohan Reddy, born in Kadapa in Andhra Pradesh is not related to Sun Tzu, the great Chinese philosopher. 

But, I think if Jagan is really keen to win the war and grab the power, he cannot ignore what Sun Tzu had said. 

And here is the first lesson from the battle that Jagan lost:

He who "He who wishes to fight must first count the cost. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be dampened. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor dampened, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue. In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaign"

The Battle is lost by Jagan because:

1. Timing: When he had 150 MLA's in his fold - he did not take the decision
2. Standing by word: This the last thing anyone see in Politics. He damaged the image of his father during the dull and boring "Odarpu Yatras". Again, when the elections are 4 years away, the tours will go into the poor public memory. Poor strategy!
3. Too long: When he failed to take the decisive steps - all the first line support deflected to his rivals. Today he is left with handful of MLA's. Again, how many would remain with him is still a question
4. Long Siege: 14 months with Congress high command known for the best of political acumen is the worst step of all
5. Cost: All his supporters cost him lot to be on his side and his resources dwindle quickly
6. Too many fronts: Congress High Command, Rosaiah Government, Telugu Desam Party, Eenadu, Andhra Jyothi and now his own uncle. Listing is expanding. Does he know enemies enemy is a friend? His list is so complicated that - if all enemies get together, he would be crushed. And this may happen now
7. Lengthy campaign: Again, in the end he quit citing family splits engineered by Congress. What did he achieve in 14 months?
8. Poor advisers: Does he listen to anyone?
9. Arrogance: He is not NT Rama rao. And he will never be. Be realistic and be a politician.
10. Strength: Do not bank on the crowds coming to the public show. They may never vote to you when time comes. 

What are the options for Jagan? In a nutshell read the book - "The Art of War". Then, reconsider all the 10 points above. Read the pages from his father political life and understand, how he did overcome the worst, from a factionist leader to become undisputed leader in the state. Finally, never assume that anything is available infinitely.

Otherwise, Jagan will loose future battles and finally the war. 

For now, Jagan is still a force to reckon provided he learns from the mistakes of his first battle. And the first evidence comes from winning the Kadapa Loksabha seat and Pulivendula Assembly seat for his mother.

Ramaji Rao & Chandrababu Naidu - A Brief History

This is the interesting article published in Saakshi Telugu paper giving the details of Ramoji Rao and Chandrababu Naidu nexus and their meteoric raise in politics and business. Illustratively provides details on their wealth accumulation from the ground zero. I do not know, to what extent the details in the article are true. Assuming even 50% accuracy, this is amazing rags to riches story. This article is perhaps a typical story of typical politician or a businessmen in present day Andhra Pradesh. Perhaps Chandrababu Naidu or Ramoji Rao role models for other aspiring politicians and businessmen.

(PS: This does not mean, YS Jagan or his father are honest or holy cows)

Disastrous Launch to Jaganmohan Reddy Political Career

First came King's tragic death, followed by the Prince's onslaught. Despite all the intense pressure, Prince could not be crowned. All the strategies ended in a huge disaster and perhaps in embarrassment. Probably, in a span of five weeks, the power hungry Prince ruined the reputation and image of the king - YS Rajasekhara Reddy that was build over decades of hard work and political struggle.

If the Krishna floods diverted the attention from the five week hype - now with Rosaiah's consolidation process - the political future of Jagan looks very fragile and may be bleak.

Sonia Gandhi and High Command have given enough indication that Rosaiah would be the Chief Minister for this term of assembly. Unless, Rosaiah commits any huge blunder - nothing significant is going to change.

By informed advise or his own wisdom, Jagan decided to play truce with the High Command for now. What will happen?

As I said in my earlier blog, return of another Congress government in 2014 is hugely unlikely. In the end, though it all depends on the political acumen of Chandrababu Naidu, it is a huge challenge to beat the incumbency. If Rosaiah & company could make it, that will be the end of Chandrababu Naidu's political career.

This will mean, Jagan cannot think of any opportunity until 2019. Between now and then, when we are talking of a decade - political landscape would change dramatically.

With this disastrous political launch, Jagan's political credibility is now a nadir and it is only a matter of time that alternative power centres would emerge and dilute the influence of Jagan in the Andhra Political scene. High Command is going to teach a lesson or two for all those who "over acted" in favour of Jagan. This is the story now developing into headlines.

In the end, it looks like - Jagan will have to follow the same path of his father, moving from Kadapa to Delhi to Hyderabad. In the process become closer to High Command and PM in waiting "Rahul" (like his father moved with Rajiv) and eventually become Chief minister of Andhra Pradesh at last, at some point of time.

However, unlike his father, Jagan does not have patience, and I would be surprised if another onslaught is made against Rosaiah's Government and High Command. Will that be a googly or a hit wicket? Let's wait and see.

Is it Reddy's vs Rest for supremacy in Andhra Congress now?

Reddy's have always been the key pillars for the Andhra Pradesh Congress. The list of Reddy CM's since the state formed, is a testimony both for the their supremacy and strength in the state Congress Party. With the sudden demise of the strongest "Christian" Reddy - Dr YSR, initially everybody thought that his son YS Jaganmohan Reddy would be made the next CM. As the days passed two things are getting clear.

First Konijeti Rosaiah an Arya Vysa with little political ground on his own is now asserting himself in the Chief Minister position.

Secondly, anit-Jagan forces are consolidating their position, again with the blessing of the Delhi high command. If we look closely look at these anti-forces, it is getting clear that all these have one common factor. They are all non Reddi's. And predominantly from non-forward communities. Though the game play of Kamma's the only other dominant political force in the state is not clear publicly, it must be assumed with all certainty they are not in favour of Jagan. The reason perhaps, YS Rajasekhara Reddy cut them to size both in and out side the Congress party.

With the belligerent stand and intensifying gap between Jagan and the Delhi high command - it now appears that Reddy's are loosing the grip at Delhi (and at Sonia's Darbar) in favour of BC leaders like KK, VH and DS. If this trend continues - future for Congress in State would be challenging.

Already the affairs in the Congress are best opportunity for Telugu Desam Party to improve their position. And, if Jagan is not going to get what he has been aspiring since his father's death, enough ground is getting prepared for a revolt or split in the Congress Party. After all, community is more thicker than the party and it is not difficult to know where the strong Reddy community will head.

Congress will be left out with KK, VH and DS gang - who are not assured about their own victory. And in the end, options for Delhi would be limited - and without Andhra, having another Congress Government in Delhi is almost impossible.

Jagan Verses Congress High Command - Now it is only one Winner

Nearly four weeks after the demise of Dr Y S Rajaskehara Reddy, battles lines are drawn in AP Congress. As I said, Congress high command in Delhi does not want to crown Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. And YS Jagan does not want to settle for anything less.

Meanwhile, it is very clear that slowly but surely the new Chief Minister Konijeti Rosaiah is establishing himself in his own style. So far he avoided all the controversies. With the emergence of KK, DS and VH, Rosaiah is getting on to his serious business while high command is taking on the battle with YS Jagan Mohan Reddy through the proxies.

As the emotions fizzle out, many people who are sitting on the fence would soon join the KK, DS and VH gang. Since YSR death - slowly but surely opposition of Jagan claim for CM position is building up.

While the KK, DS and VH camp is coming from the high command mandate, as the days goes by - Jagan is loosing his ground at Delhi. And getting a foot hold in Delhi is not a small effort. And getting the ears and eyes of Madam Sonia and his political advisor Ahmed Patel is becoming increasing distant. It is likely a communication breakdown scenario between high command and Jagan.

This is where Jagan made the fundamental mistake. The Delhi's "power" blessing is the key for a Congress leader to establish his position in the state. (As we see, this is what happening with Rosaiah). YSR realised this after a life long political experience. All the occasions prior to 2004, when YSR came very close to the CM gaddi - but lost the opportunity only because - his did not have Delhi blessings. And YSR realised this importance all the more during the tenure of PV Narasimha Rao when he was virtually sidelined (became a political orphan).

After many set backs, YSR understood two things. People Power and Power of Delhi Blessings! He carefully nurtured both and taken a bottoms up and top down approach

Hence, despite becoming virtually independent during the past 5 years, he never worked against high command nor he let down the people who looked after him.

Now, Jagan is thinking just the people (or mass) who are coming to him would give the power in the state. If that is the route Jagan is likely to follow (as it stands truce with Delhi looks very unlikely unless some on in Delhi can do a miracle) then he is likely to break away from Congress. In this scenario - either Jagan or Congress can only be a winner or both could be losers and Telugu Desam Party would be the winner. With two successive Congress government, it is impossible to return another Congress government in the state. And it is foolish to underestimate Chandrababu Naidu and his political acumen.

Against these adversaries, if Jagan can make it - he would be a national hero. We can write obituary for Congress in the state.

What ever happens for now, the winner - with out any doubt is Konijeti Rosaiah. With 50+ years of political experience, Rosaiah knows well how another politician crowned under similar circumstances - PV Narasimha Rao ruled a country for 5 years and changed it's destiny. I am sure Rosaiah would not leave any opportunity and foot prints of legacy.

Truth About Why Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy is NOT made CM?

It is now more are less clear that YS Jagan Mohan Reddy would not be the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh in near future. High Command at 10, Janpath decided against Jagan and yet, giving "Strong" indications that Jagan would be "groomed" into a strong Leader. Like a saying goes in Mahabharata "there are 1000 reasons for Karna's death" we can see 1000 reasons why Jagan is not crowned today Of them, if over reaction from Jagan's group is seen as a most acceptable reason, "Jagan is not yet ready for the leadership role" is the least acceptable. Between these two, AP Media is finding another 998 reasons.

I will explain the main reason why Jagan mohan Reddy is NOT made CM.

Leaders are born but they are not made. Like YS Rajasekhar Reddy, YS Jagan is a natural leader. I won't get into too many examples. For once, if we take the way Jagan came up with Sakshi and effectively neutralized the AP media, it clearly shows his leadership skills.

Secondly, in the past week are so, CM's Camp Office has virtually become Hyderabad's 10, Janpath. From the Chief Minister to every one who is who in the state are visiting Jagan (for darshan). Jagan is "dealing" with them on "equal terms". Jagan spoke very little since the sad demise of his father. Most of the work is done behind the closed doors by his trusted people like - KVP Ramachandra Rao. Thus, the 10, Janpath message that Jagan is required to be groomed is only a non-confronting message to avoid direct conflict at this time.

It is said publicly, in Hyderabad, AP and over the media that YS Rajasekhar Reddy got free hand only because he is a Christian and Madam Sonia is keen to promote him. If this logic is true then Jagan would be have been made CM already. That also did not happen. Even, if Sonia promoted YSR in the name of religion, she does not want to promote YSJ for the same reason.

We have seen enough evidence both in public and also, with the Congress party that there is strong support in favour of YSJ. This also did not impress Congress High Command.

What is that core committee of Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Ahmad Patel, Pranab Mukherjee, AK Anthony etc are thinking? Well, they wanted to avoid handing over the power to Y S Jaganmohan Reddy at any cost.

At the time of untimely and sad demise of Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy - he was at pinnacle of his power, undisputed leader in Andhra Pradesh and perhaps one of the strongest Congress leaders in India. He ensured twice, a Congress government to stand at Centre. As a matter of fact, this time - Mr Singh and Mrs Gandhi's power is directly on account of the huge numbers YSR delivered. At this rate, if YSR were alive - he would have "cut" or "extremely limited" the Delhi power for vote pulling in AP. The days like, mass voting for Indiramma are essentially over and Soniamma is not same - in front of YSR charisma!

Though he was naming all welfare schemes in the name of Rajiv or India - benefactors in the state are clearly seeing all those are boons by YSR than Sonia or Congress. Then, YSR "crushed" every Congress politician who was against him the state. In a nutshell Yeduguri Sandhinti Rajasekhar Reddy was almost unconquerable but for his death. This is not acceptable to Congress High command.

Thus, untimely death of YSR is an opportunity - to cut the YSR Group. Limit the power. Ensure growth of alternative power centres. Let the groupisms grow and fighting take politicians again to Delhi durbar for meditations and settlements.

If YSJ is made CM, it is not difficult for YSJ to continue the legacy of his late father. Everything is in tact both politically, administratively with strong business links. Just at 37, if YSJ now becomes the CM and bring another success in 2014 - then the Delhi influence would wane forever. This is a disaster for Congress High command.

At the same time, Congress High Command cannot risk antagonising Y S Jagan at this point as his political, business and monetary muscle is at it's best. By denying him the power now, Delhi can effectively reduce the influence and in the process - bring the state politics into their grip.

It is true that there is no leader in Andhra Pradesh today to match the charisma of Y S Jagan mohan Reddy. Rosaiah could manage this Assembly term but he cannot lead the state for the next elections victory. All other "tall" leaders are doubtful about their own win. This known to all Congress workers, MLA's and MP's in the state - and yet, High Command pretends as thought they have other choice when there is nothing other than loosing next election (and potentially power at Delhi thus delaying Rahul Gandhi crowing).

After all it is all about the Power and when there is an excellent opportunity for 10, Janpath - they would not loose the opportunity to let go.

In the coming weeks and months we will see what kind of politician Y S Jagan mohan Reddy is in making to keep the political grip intact with in state. In the end, 10 Janpath may delay but cannot deny from CM Gaddi. What are the losses for congress and Jagan in the state would be known in 2014.