Saturday, June 22, 2013

Falling Currency - India Story

My mother is well into here eighties. She was not educated at Harvard like India's Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram nor at Oxbridge like Indian Prime minister Dr Manmohan Singh. She stopped her studies perhaps in her middle school.

When I was a kid, lot of our aunts, uncles, cousins and  close relatives used to visit our home regularly. Being in a relatively better of middle class family and respectable position in society - my mothers kindness was paramount for most of my relatives. They used to take favors - from money to gifts - that were never returned nor reciprocated.

All my relatives knew one thing for sure. It is not easy to get the favors from my mother easily. But they all knew one trick. My mothers weakness was flattery.  All my relatives mastered this art while coming to home and in due to course of conversations trap her emotionally to get the best. As I grew up, I used to feel - there is something seriously amiss. This flattery was weaved around my mothers wealth, family legacy, magnanimity and auspicious blessing and kindness. While it may not be completely false - the fact is, these magnified statements often stretched beyond the reality. In due course - my mother bestowed relatives with Gold or Silver ornaments, given money without asking to return and spent best part of her young and middle ages extending support of all kind.  It took very long time and bruises to understand what actually went wrong. But damage was already done. She still repents for her deeds.

In early 2000 while in India, I picked up couple of newspapers and magazines. All the newspapers were full of positive stories of India. There were "real" stories of "real people" who have become instantly rich and moved from poverty to skyscrapers of Bombay. While European / US airlines were operating in budget mode, Kingfisher and Jet airways were seen as emerging global leaders. Infosys or TCS were clearly identified to lead the tech world. Indian economy was expected to break all the records and set to become worlds 2nd or 3rd if not the top. It was a miracle story of all kinds. Some one said that all the back office jobs would be in India and it was predicted to become - worlds Service hub. Bangalore would take over Shangai and perhaps Mumbai would takeover London or NY. Manmohan Singh was called the best educated head of a country in the world. Sonia Gandhi was named worlds most powerful lady. In a nutshell, the Chindia is the place to be in 21st Century.

All the above in the first place was not said by Indians. The books like "World is Flat", papers in London FT, New York times, or Harvard Business review to mention a few are the architects of these stories. Nandan Nilakani or NR Narayana Murthy have defined visions for India and became poster boys primarily for the Western world.  Falsely - likes of Indra Nooyi, Rajat Gupta, Vinod Khosla who are American citizens have been branded and parceled in the India shining story. While there is no denial of some facts, the reality is far different from this approbation. The truth and reality have been buried under the flattery and hype. India lost the race for the good.

As the reality kicks in - today Indian political and executive leadership is clueless. Forget the vision of India they do not have a strategy for next week or month. The Harvard, Yale, Cambridge or Oxford educated world class Indian economists, now are at Bernanke's mercy. Globalized economy is like a Global game. China's PMI, Greece bailout, or a Fed statement would send jitters.

The key question though - is India prepared to play this highly sophisticated game? The crux of the issue is - Indian Political class buried under flattery or hype for past two decades sell lies to their citizens. "Don't worry about falling dollar or do not buy gold" are perhaps few of the examples. Their ego and constant denial of facts is accelerating the downward moment. Even more worrying is the consensus politics and heavy focus on the secular agenda of the best educated PM and the most powerful lady on the earth. Rupee value, dwindling foreign reserves or serial non-abating corruption scandals are real barometers of potentially a great nation.

My mother in her 70s understood the menace of flattery. She became realistic and understood the rules of the game. In the end, she could limit the damage. But, the Oxbridge educated Dr Singh who has been advertised the architect of Indian economic reforms is falling under his own pressure.

As long as Indian people elect (even indirectly) these false visionaries and continue to keep them in these vital offices - rupee would keep falling further and further.

Be realistic!

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