Sunday, January 22, 2012
AP State: Politcal & Power Equations Impending Shift
Until independence while Andhra was part of Madras State, Brahmins were dominant political force. Being wealthy at that time, their education and willingness to migrate to urban centres helped them to lead politically. As a result, most of the 1st generation leaders of this time were Brahmins. Similar situation to a lesser extent prevailed even in erstwhile Hyderabad state. Tanguturi Prakasam and Burgula Ramakrishna Rao both Brahmins, were the 1st Chief Ministers of Andhra and Hyderabad states respectively. . Brahmin M.P's and M.L.A's have significant numbers perhaps until the formation of Andhra Pradesh state in 1956.
Since 1956 the Reddy's have become politically dominant. Successive Chief Ministers since Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy were Reddy's until 1983. While Brahmins migration to urban centres disconnected them in the predominantly rural state from their roots (vote banks), Reddy's strength stems from their hold on lands and agriculture. With their wealth and economic dominance, Reddy's have virtually controlled the state politics. During the course of time, Reddy's consolidated their hold on Education and entered into diversified fields but always ensured the grip on their roots. The Reddy tag become so much aligned with political power in the state that, even non-Reddies started suffixing their names with Reddy. This 2nd phase was longest period of political authority by a single community. Despite PV Narasimha Rao becoming Prime Minister Brahmins virtually were out of the political power structure.
Like Reddy's, Kamma community as well come with similar socio-economic background. Being agriculturists and landlords, their main focus was movies, business and other fields than politics until late late 1970's. Kammas have had a meteoric political raise, thanks to NT Rama Rao. Since then, until the defeat of N Chandrababu Naidu in 2004, the Phase-3 of the Power shift was heavily in the hands of this community.
It is hard to say, if YS Rajasekhar Reddy years were of Reddy dominance. YSR was open and frank of his Christian Religion and during his time, apart from his own family the people who gained were mostly from the diversified communities.
It was a open secret that Chiranjeevi political entry was to assert the Kapu Community and shift the power balance. Since the death of YSR and departure of Jagan from Congress - role of Kapu community is on steady raise. Unlike Brahmins (3%), Reddy's (7%-10%)and Kamma's (3%)- Kapu's have numerical strength. With the amalgamation of sub-sects they are the single largest community in the state. Despite having fair share in Assembly and Parliament, they were more or less restricted from entering the power corridors. This was largely due to lack of the education, social and political awareness and more importantly realisation of their own strengths. Thanks to the ongoing Telengana movement, the other backwards and scheduled castes also asserting their political significance. Also during the course of past 2 decades, all the communities have become wealthy and entered into the diversified fields. The traditional land owning patterns also have started to change though, slowly. Finally everyone in politics have mastered the art of winning the power.
Reddy community success is now more or less depends on the fortunes of Jagan Mohan Reddy. Kamma's traditional alignment with Telugu Desam, and the emergence of Kapu's pushed them into the 3rd (or 4th) position in Congress. Even the Kamma leaders who have had the opportunity in power corridors are playing safe - for their personal gains. Unless, TDP returns to the power - Kamma's are net losers. Even if TDP is successful, Naidu cannot ignore the Kapu's who would take the large chunk of power. With internal power struggles within Nara and Nandamuri clans, once a clean party is looking very vulnerable from their own community. There is no hope for Telugu Brahmins politically in the state - mainly because they do not have a strategy and unity (this the 1st and the last community in the state to announce Telengana Brahmins associations etc).
This is the decisive phase while power shifts for the first time from forward communities to Kapus and backward communities. The trends are clear. For example, Bosta family virtually controls the north coastal Andhra Pradesh. There is no single family in the state with such a grip. Even Jagan is restricted to Kadapa only. Chiranjeevi is their lucky mascot for the community for political gains. This is already evident.
As I see, 2014 would see the dominance of Kapu's in the power corridors and already politically hypersensitive state would face more uncertainties on account of this power shift and impending power struggle.
Monday, December 19, 2011
Chiranjeevi - The Mega Disaster
This leaves, the Megastar Chiranjeevi who moved from reasonably commanding position with in the state political scene to a damp squib. I think, Chiranjeevi represents a text book case for any politician in the state - "how to fail?". Chiru started with a hype. Just taking a single page from NT Rama Rao meteoric raise in the politics. Just because, he was in a similar position in Tollywood as undisputed number#1 hero, like NTR - Chiru thought that he could repeat the same magic and become the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. Chiru is not NTR let it be on silver screen or in politics.
NTR had a clear vision. His vision stems from the then prevailing pathetic political scenario in AP. Unlike Chiranjeevi, NTR was a learned man. He was emotional yet had lot of clarity. He was eccentric yet, there was consistency. He was independent yet, a first class leader. He dared to challenge, worked against odds and delivered to the people on promises. He attracted the young and talented. Finally, NTR cultivated his political base - predominately around the backward classes who until then had no political representation in the state Though he had his own share of failures, on the balance - NTR status is legendary.
Chiranjeevi had no vision. His ambition was to become Chief Minister with out cultivation of a strong political base. Despite coming from a numerously strong Kapu Community, Chiru was defeated in his political heartland - Palacole. Chiru was emotional but had no vision. He could not convey a meaningful message. Unlike NTR, this time Chiru was facing perhaps two of the strongest political leaders in YSR and CBN. Chiru's understanding of social, political and cultural history of Andhra Pradesh was below the par of a X class student. By any measure he is not a learned man. Chiru, did not have stamina and conviction that he could make it to the top. He basically took a gamble around his screen image. He sold his brand name and in the process made a personal fortune for himself. In this internet era, Chiru's Public relation skills are at best counter productive.
Nurturing and cultivating a political base is key for a Leaders' success (Manmohan Singh is no exception though his political base is just around a single square plot of land - 10, Janpath). Even the so called modern mass leader, Y S Rajasekhar Reddy is no exception. He toiled hard for decades and cultivated his own political back yard regionally, on caste and religious lines, and at the national level.
Election records clearly indicate that, but for Chiranjeevi entry Congress would have lost 2009 elections. Then with his 18 member elected MLA count, Chiru saved Kiran Kumar Reddy Government in 2011. The Two big services to the AP state!. In the process, from a position of the Leader of a political party, he zeroed himself to nothing. Even Majlis with a mere strength of 5 members know better of bargaining politics than novice Chiranjeevi.
Now, Chiranjeevi ambitions have zeroed to a Cabinet post either at Delhi or in Hyderabad. Chiranjeevi despite all the public display of his comical statements and emotions does not understand the Congress and Delhi High Command. Congress in a nutshell is a Trading Party. This means, one should bring something on the table - to get something back in return. Ajit Singh brought 5 MP's and a huge percentage of votes that would add up to Congress in upcoming UP elections. Sharad Pawar, Karunanidhi or Mamata Benerjee all have something to trade - otherwise a constant threat to government and it's survival.
Chiranjeevi and his 18 numbers have no real value. Congress can easily buy them off at any time. Chiranjeevi does not have a political base (like Majlis), Political acumen (like PV), brand integrity (like Manmohan Singh), backroom maneuvering skills (Kavuri or Rayapati), mass following (like KCR), money (like Lagadapati or Jagan) and finally with in his own Kapu Community he is not even the strongest leader (like Botsa). This leaves Chiranjeevi with the tainted silver screen legacy. When the next elections come up, Chiru is not even a guaranteed crowd puller (perhaps, he will have to compete with the likes of NTR Jr, who is a better orator by yards).
In summary, if there is no intrinsic value to put on the table and trade - with in Congress party there won't be any value or recognition. Unless something extraordinary happens, 2011 marks the end of Chiranjeevi political career. He may dream of Cabinet berths but High Command would not bless with anything substantial. Chiranjeevi is in no better position than the "intelligent" lawyer he played in one of his blockbuster movie Abhilasha. Ironically, the screen name also was Chiranjeevi.
It is a Mega disaster!
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Oka Charitra Konni nijaalu - Daggubati Venkateswara Rao
This a a very interesting reading narrating Venkateswarao's view point of the events that lead to creation, success and distruction of the NT Ramarao's political career. On the other side, the entire story exposes the canny, cunning and often brutal nature of his co-brother, Nara Chandrababu Naidu.
Having lost touch with Telugu books, I found this book flow was very good (perhaps, I was in India during this period and keenly followed some of the developments).
This book in summary is about Power struggle. If we look back in perspective, with relation to today context, some of the events are baffling. For example, deposed from the power, after a political coup enacted by Chandrababu Naidu, at one point - NT Ramarao, having lost all hope, asks his son Nadamuri Balakrishna "if you are my son, kill chandrababu naidu - bring back and show me the knife with Naidu blood". The shocking thing is Balakrishna married his daughter Brahmani to Nara Lokesh, the very Chandrababu Naidu's son whose blood his late father wanted to see!
Second interesting storyline according to the author is - how Chandababu Naidu used both Balakrishna and Harikrishna in the coup plot (and thrown them later like used condoms!). Today, Junior NTR, who is "illegetimte" son of Harikrishna is due to marry Nara Chandrababu Naidu's niece daughter. According to Venkateswara Rao, Chandrababu Naidu held a very low opinion of both these "bright" sons of NTR. OK, Balakrishna marriage took place before the book was published - what about the marriage enagagement that was brokered by Babu last week? I think what Venkateswararao said is true - "in Babu opinion, these are bumb sons of NTR"
The blatant and open references to corruptions practices followed by Chandrababu Naidu are very illustrative. The events in this context clear one point for good. All the allegations that are faced for so long by Chandrababu Naidu about his rags to riches story are clarified. This books shows the anatomy of Chandrababu Naidu's institutionalised corruption in the state. Also, though it might look comic, I was attracted by one point "Babu cannot even write a four word sentence in English" and "forget about his speaking and computer knowledge"
Other interesting aspect is - the book gives ample examples and shows how one can succeed by buying the media. Needless to say, Eenadu was the key for Naidu's success, glory and as well as his fall and struggles. His acts as "Crisis Manager" and using them for his own gain shows the strategic mind of Naidu. And how dumped Renuka Chowdhary when his "Crisis Manager" role backfired for once and then, how he managed shows his survival skills. Ventateswara Rao is also very honest in telling the caste politics in the state and mentions long list of Kamma leaders who queued in front of NT Ramarao. The story of Parvataneni Upendra is good example - to show if you are a Kamma, in Telugu Desam Party one can go from nowhere to anywhere. The sad story is, the same Upendra who did not have any identity before going with NTR later dumped him after reaching top at Delhi.
Well written book, even if Venkateswara Rao told 80% truth it is like any history book - will fore tell what is on the horizon. After all, power can buy anything - blood, caste, trust, faith even sons and daughters (this time no women)!
NT Ramarao, who had given so much of wealth to his children ultimately died an orphan. That is a fact and Rao did not hide this truth.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Jr NTR Troubles and His Future
NTR Jr is illegitimate son of Nandamuri Harikrishna, one of the son's of NT Ramarao. Little is known about the NTR Jr mother. From the reports, it is certain that she is a Brahmin while Nadamuri's are Kamma. Hence, it is essentially an inter caste relationship. Harikrishna had at least two sons through his first wife and again not much information is available about his first wife as well.
Until NTR Jr became one of the top heroes in Tollywood, the word goes that - neither he nor his mother got any respect from Nandamuri families. Even after becoming a top hero with substantial mass following, reports keep coming up that NTR Jr was not truly seen as a member of Nandamuri clan.
At the time, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was struggling to get crowds for the road shows and meetings, Nara Chandrababu Naidu first brought Nandamuri Balakrishna, whose daughter has been married to Naidu's son Lokesh. But, Balakrishna proved to be disaster in the public domain and became a comic character.
As options were running out - Naidu had no option but to pull NTR Jr for TDP campaign. Not surprisingly - NTR Jr, who resembles in physic, actions and dialogues his grandfather NTR Sr, became a star campaigner for TDP by huge crowd pulling. His campaign stopped mid way due to accident. Unfortunately, TDP's worst results of 2009 Andhra Pradesh elections have came from the regions where NTR Jr campaigned.
Elections are over and TDP was badly beaten. Yet, NTR Jr is the discovery of the elections for TDP. Now NTR Jr is in trouble - and probably under pressure as well, to choose between Film career and Politics. Political parties like Congress know NTR Jr family circumstances and they are trying to woo him into Congress fold. Babu knows the value of NTR Jr, as no one else in the party got the crowd pulling capability like this young hero.
NTR Jr is very young in mid 20's. He is too young to get into politics when his film career is looking bright. Now that he will come under considerable pressure, any decision would have significant impact on his future.
First, NTR Jr is like Karna in Mahabharata with in TDP. He got strengths, power and ability - yet, he will never be a king. Nandamuri's will not allow him to be the one to lead. Babu wanted to use NTR Jr for his political gains but - naturally wants his son Lokesh Naidu to be the next king. Having married his daughter to Lokesh Naidu, Nandamuri Balakrishna - would like hi son-in-law Lokesh than NTR Jr. Coming to Harikrishna, NTR Jr is neither his first son nor his favourite. Also, the fact the both wives cannot get along, it is the elder wife that would call shots.
Second, NTR Jr cannot leave TDP and join Congress. At this tender age, if he takes a decision (or mistake) to join Congress, his Tollywood future is closed. Nandamuri's are like first family of Tollywood - their community and friends hold the iron grip in the industry. Hence, it is very easy to put NTR Jr in loop line and close his career. Jr NTR cannot risk his career at this age.
Third, NTR Jr goes towards Congress, he cannot sustain by his image alone. Though he might get considerable respect than with in the TDP, his political future would not be bright either.
Fourth, if NTR Jr is keen to play a political role, he needs a mentor. This cannot be Babu, Balayya or Harikrishna for obvious reasons. In congress, Purandareswari - may be a good choice but it would be a difficult choise for either.
So, what is the best option? NTR Jr best option is to keep focus on Film career and build his own image. Now that people have seen his value, NTR Jr may have to wait for a political opportunity to become a natural choice. This will known only when, Lokesh Naidu's is understood in the public domain.
Any other decision, even under extensive pressure would be fatal for NTR Jr future.
Friday, March 20, 2009
AP Elections 2009::: Top sins of YSR's Congress Government
Telugu Pride "Atmagowravam": Congress bitten the dust in 1983 when the Congress leaders mortgaged the pride of Telugus in Delhi. Old habits die hard. The Begumpet airport had two terminals - of them domestic terminal was aptly named after NT Ramarao and the international terminal after Rajiv Gandhi. When the airport moved to Shamshabad, YS Rajasekhar Reddy government decided to drop NTR name despite wide spread opposition from all quarters. Again to please Delhi and Sonia Gandhi, YSR did not listen and sadly, the very man who fought for the identity of Telugu poeple lost righteous place. Even a proposal from opposition TDP to name the airport after PV Narasimha Rao, the only PM from the state and Congressman was ignored. If the events after the death after PV Narasimha Rao was directed by Delhi, YSR government successfully implemented the directions to the shame of all Telugu people. Again, top marks to Congress for reviving the old habits and killing the pride and self respect of the very people whom they represent.
Telangana Drama: Congress joined hands with Telengana Rastra Samithi in 2004 elections and promised Telangana state in the election manifesto. Once in power, Congress ensured that this issue is put in complex loops and even after 5 years no clarity is provided. Just like BJP's Ram Mandir slogan, Congress is using Telangana for it's own political gains. Top marks again to congress for creating all the ripples at periodic intervals and then driving out TRS from the alliance. For the all those who wanted the unified Andhra Pradesh, this may be a good omen. Yet, this can be termed as "cheating" for which, TRS might have larger share of responsibility than Congress
Naxalites: When CBN increased the encounters and killed many, Congress promised "discussions and negotiations" as solution. Even though it started the platform on a friendly note, today Congress proved to be no different than the TDP. Again this is going back on the promise to provide a social fix for a long running issue and returning to the gun and encounters. Unfortunately today, this issue with a potential to damage the social infrastructure of Telangana and North Andhra is not on the top of agenda for any political party.
Administration: There are two aspects of the administration. If corruption is one other is functioning. When it comes to corruption, Congress brought this down to street level while, during the TDP it remained largely inside the glass doors with some level of sophistication. When it comes to functioning, this Government failed to provide the level of service to citizens. While there was an element of fear with the Government employees during the CBN rule, today all these employees attained the level of fearless state. This trend is damaging and perhaps this will be one of the top sins of the Government as most of the citizens are impacted in one way or other. When it comes to nepotism, all the parties rank on par and hence - Congress is no different.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Last Chapter of N T Rama Rao life - and His Legacy
What is the background?
NT Rama Rao was the undisputed king of the Telugu Industry. He retired from the silver screen around 1982 when he launched his Telugu Desam Party. Though he acted in couple of movies in later years - fact is, since his retirement until today - no one could replace his iconic position and he remains as the only legend of the Tollywood.
What about his family?
NT RamaRao married to Basava Rama Tarakam and both had around 11 children (see Wikipedia for details). NT Rama Rao by his nature and due to his personality was never emotionally close to anyone of his children. As a matter of fact, but for the name of their father, none of NTR children could build any kind of individual credibility and reputation on their own - during NTR life time.
Personal Loss
Basava Rama Tarakam died soon after NTR became the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh. This could have been big emotional crisis for NTR at that age but, he could over come with his hectic national and state politics. At the same time, the emotional bond between the father and all his children started widening.
First Political Setback
Despite the landslide mandate, NTR suffered politically partly due to his own mistakes (or lack of political skills) and on account of the cunning political games played by his own people at the behest of Congress. Initially he had a huge set back when his own man Nadendla Bhaskara Rao "stabbed" and dispositioned him as CM. NTR with the wave of support from the people of Andhra Pradesh, came back to power quickly. But, this major political incident proved that - he could be vulnerable at anytime as NTR never tried to learn.
Problematic Political Style
NTR used to behave funny, cranky at times, based on some poor advise, fear or his own thinking. He donned Vivekanda get-up, telling people of the state that he became a Sanyasi. It was a general belief at that time that - NTR used to take instant decisions without understanding the political consequences. While some of those instant decisions made him Robin Hood with masses, he soon started loosing his credibility with educated class as he appeared more like a comic cartoon.
Emotional problems
Of all his sons only Balakrishna appreared promising and started building glamour and image on his own. At one point, duing his public meeting - NTR went on record saying his son Nadamuri Balakrishna would the next leader of the party and that he would carry his legacy.
What went wrong?
Two of NTR sons-in-law, Nara Chandra Babu Naidu and Daggubati Venkatestwara Rao were active in TDP. Chandra Babu Naidu, a back room operator, was in Congress when TDP was launched. He contested elections on Congress ticket but lost. Soon after that he joined TDP. Naidu was considered, hardworking, shrewed and a capable person. Soon after NTR made a public statement, NTR was "forced" to change the tone. It was believed - both the Sons-in-Law by then politically powerful, influenced NTR. Thus, though NTR wanted Balakrishna to carry on his politically legacy, it did not materisalise.
Electoral Defeat
NTR lost the third elections he faced in mid 1990's. Due to his emotional exhuberance, lack of political strategy, poor listening skills and straighforwardness - by now NTR is getting isolated. Due to this, the vaccumm created by his departed wife was becoming visible. None of his sons and daughters dared or attempted to move closer to him. NTR is becoming a lonely man
Second Marriage
At that time, Lakshmi Siva Parvathi - a married women with a teenage child became closer to NTR. This was extraodinory situation for, who knew NTR - but, NTR was no different to any septugenarian windower. They wanted emotional support. Lakshmi Parvathi filled that vaccumm. True to his nature of making instant decisions - NTR decided to marry Laksmi Parvathi. None of his family supported this decision. First she was married, secondly she does belong to their community and thirdly her reputation was questionable.
Return to Power
While the crisis on his personal life was running high, NTR returned to power with a landslide again. As promised he introduced prohibition with in seconds of assuming power. This is perhaps the most populist scheme of NTR after his trademark Rs 2 / Kg rice scheme.
Emerging Crisis
Lakshmi Parvati never remained a housewife. She started her own power centre and became a centre media attention. This was sharp contrast to NTR's first wife, who perhaps was never seen in public let alone speaking. Both these acts, started creating fractures in the party. Chandra Babu Naidu started seeing an emerging power struggle, as NTR's health was detoriating though, he was on the top of the decision making process. But the problem for Babu was, Lakshmi Parvathi started influencing - NTR more and more.
Political Stabbing
In the name of saving party Naidu with the help of NTR's family disposed NTR in a bloodless coup. Depsite all his efforts, NTR was completly isolated because everyone started blaming Lakshmi Parvati and Rama Rao not keen to discard her. He was ousted from the very party that was build from his own blood and sweat. Ramarao could not survive long enough to take a revange on the conspirators. NTR died a lonely man
What is Brand NTR in politics?
NTR was the most popular leader in the Andhra Pradesh history till todate. It is perhaps difficult to think of some one coming even closer to charisma. He introduced most durable trademark populist schemes like mid day meal, rice schemes, prohibition and many more during his tubulant leadership years.
What happened after NTR?
Though Naidu said his coup was to save the party, his true colours emerged slowly. He kicked out all those relatives, including NTR sons from the party. He ensured that his control on the party is complete. Unlike NTR, he proved very sophisticated and ensured all the media for his propaganda (for example Eenadu created a brand Naidu). He also ditched all the NTR populist schemes that are his true legacy. He ruled the state for 9 years with iron grip and bitten dust in 2004 when his Hi-Tech pitch did not go well with average voter in the state
What about NTR family?
NTR sons went into isolation. Harikrishna now one of the popular TDP voice was shown door out of the cabinet and party by Naidu but he went onto launch a party on his own again picking the name of his dead father. Balakrishna never played any role and remained nonchalant. He continued with his film career with limited success. NTR's other Son in Law went over to Congress. His wife, Purandareswari became a respectable Minister in Manmohan Singh government.
Who is legitimate to carry NTR Legacy?
Today, NTR is simply iconified for mean political gains chiefly by Telugu Desam Party. In his 9 years rule, Naidu ensured that all his legacy is buried. Harikrishna one of the NTR son who played a key role in ousting his father and made him to die early, today joined Naidu for saving his brother-in-law from another politcal disaster than to do anything with his father legacy. Balakrishna who now got extended relationship due to his daughter marriage with Naidu's son, is making an entry to TDP to defeat the seamingly powerful Reddy community (and Dr YS Rajasekhar Redddy) because of whom their own Kamma community is suffering all around and are getting marginalised in the past 5 years. Purandareswari is perhaps the most credible child of NTR but she is with Congress.
To honest NTR legacy is dead long back. Naidu and NTR's sons are simply trying to fool Andhra Pradesh electorate in the name of NTR who will never pardon anyone even sitting in heaven.
Like in Silver Screen no one can take NTR position and carry his legacy. After all we are living in different world
Friday, January 19, 2007
Telangana: Sentiment and Rational
The great NTR was perhaps the first and the last politician cum cine hero who had success with sentiment factor both in Tollywood and Andhra Pradesh politics. The fact that polls were held with in 9 months of the sentiment kick-off, NTR's road to political success became lot easier. However, on becoming CM, NTR himself could not sustain his power just by using the sentiment factor. This is because, sentiment is impulsive and before rational thinking kicks in, it has to be cashed. Sentiment itself cannot sustained on long term basis. This is the problem with BJP's - Hindutva / Ayodhya sentiment
The Telangana sentiment is reaching it's peak. There are no additional boosters with KCR or TRS that can be fired to sustain this sentiment on Long-term basis.
The key question in today's Telengana episode is whether someone will give or KCR will take Telangana. Today YSR and CBN, the most powererful leaders in AP, if share a common vision of united Andhra Pradesh, they must act rationally. Despite their political differences, NTR was magnanimous in supporting PV NarasimhaRao when he contested from Nandyal.
KCR cannot take it using sentiment alone. No Tollywood movie based on sentiment ran years at boxoffice and nor great NTR could sustain his power using sentiment alone.
Andhra Pradesh politicians - be honest and remember that strength is unity in democracy