Monday, September 16, 2013

Chandrababu Naidu - Decline and Politial fallout

Chandrababu Naidu inspired a generation in Andhra Pradesh and many parts of India. I too was one of them, impressed by transparent administration and development slogan. Back 1990's - while Naidu graph was running high - at the pinnacle of the power he had open door to Prime Minister office. He turned king maker and crowned two or three Prime Ministers of India. At one point - two strong possibilities were in his Political graph. Naidu the life term Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh like Jyothi Basu (he called himself CEO after hobnobbing with the likes of Bill Gates). Or else, becoming Prime Minister of India. Both were indeed strong possibilities.

However, neither proved correct. Naidu was booted out of power in 2004. This was a shock for Naidu and many of his fans. There are many reasons for the Naidu's rout. First, he went too fast with economic reforms in a less industrialised state. He failed to balance between development and subsidies. This hit poor and agriculture sector hard. Second, Naidu concentrated all his development mantra around Hyderabad. Finally, showered under media hype, Naidu became arrogant, out of touch and autocratic. All the Government employees turned against him. He could not even sense the upcoming disaster.

There is no better lesson than failure, if one is prepared to listen and adapt. YS Rajasekhar Reddy, who  stepped into the CM chambers reversed most of the Naidu policies. By many accounts, YSR presided one of the corrupt administrations. For the sake of votes and power, development became lopsided and subsidies went up exponentially. Irrational alliances were made that are proving too costly for Congress power in AP and at Delhi in 2014. Congress Government in Delhi suffered from series of corruption scandals. Andhra Pradesh was burning day in and out due to Telngana movement. Under tragic circumstances, YSR passed away.

Everyone knew and acutely aware of huge political vacuum in Andhra Pradesh. Naidu was the answer. But he failed again. This is the third time, after successive election debacles in 2004 an 2009.

First, he fought with YSR on ethics and then continued his petty fight with Jaganmohan Reddy, who is a political novice by any measure. While the state was burning, administration was paralysed, Naidu's political vision blurred out. Since 2004, Naidu claimed by many a great strategist, proved too light on strategy and more consistent on persistent blunders.

He never had a clear policy stand on Telengana Statehood. First he appeared to be for united Andhra Pradesh. Then under intense pressure given a favourable consideration for Telengana. When, Telengana was announced, it was a yorker and looked stunned for a while. When he sensed that sentiment in Coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema was very strong against the bifurcation of state he changed the tone. Instead of fighting in Delhi where was real power to make or break a decision - he hit the roads of Coastal Andhra. His strategy,  this time is not stop to bifurcation but to retain the political base in the limited region. If Naidu were to announce like YSR, that he was not in favour of Telengana, no power at Delhi would have dared to take this decision.

Thinking too big of himself is Naidu's another obvious shortcoming. Despite wide and varied views, there is no denial of the fact that KCR is instrumental in Telengana creation. Naidu still thinks KCR is small time politician and plays down despite KCR huge political success. This is no small feat.

Naidu is good at hypothetical claims. First of them is, Naidu persistent claims that YSR Congress is merely a Congress proxy. What Naidu do not understand is, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is most popular politician in Coastal Andhra and Telengana. Here again, Naidu thinks too big of himself and as he did with KCR he downplays Jagan. Instead of hitting hard on real issues and real solution, Naidu has been clueless.

Naidu however had limited success in his own back yard. He successfully manoeuvred his brothers-in-law and ensured that NTR JR, a potential contender for leadership is checkmated. He cleared path to crown his his son Lokesh. It is interesting to note that Naidu was a ardent opponent of dynastic politics.

With all polls suggesting that Telugu Desam Party is going to beat the dust, slowly all the party cadres are deserting this great party once stood for the pride of Telugus. Naidu, having meekly surrendered, with no credibility left is just eking out with kitchen politics. What a great polical fall out for once tall leader, considered a visionary to be a minnow in his own state?

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