The most unpopular US President in the recent US history will be arriving on Indian soil in few days. Tough a symbolic record, this marks third consecutive Unites States President visit to emerging India. It started with Bill Clinton. Until then, India was not in US radar. I am talking pre-1990 era when India was grip of socialist policies. In grip of left leaning foreign policy aligned with Soviet block. Bill Clinton visit with out any doubt, was acknowledgement of India as one of the Global "emerging powers". For many Indians - the visit generated greatest excitement. Most of the Indians were thrilled to see the powerful man of the most power nation on the earth in India.
That was more than 10 years back, in a different world order. India economy was just showing signs of momentum. Growth rates were getting into double digits. India was getting a foot hold on the global service industries. Indian outsourcers were still in pre- Y2K era, seen as cheaper low end code fixers. Bangalore was only technology hub of India. Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai and Gurgaon were not in the world map for outsourcers or Tech companies. Best of Indian brains were still looking West for all the best opportunities. And more importantly, in the post cold war era with broken USSR, economically struggling Europe and UK - China still behind shadows, United States of America was undisputed world leader by any measure.
By the time George Bush visit to India, the world order changed significantly. India and China were perhaps the fasted growing economies. World took biggest shocks. Dot com bubble and 9/11 shook American economy. Meanwhile, China emerged biggest challenger to global American power. This was the time, US and India started moving closer for strategic reasons. This was a remarkable turn around from "cold" relationship till Indira Gandhi era
India is changing - perhaps for the good. With collapse of USSR, it is natural for India to adapt the foreign policy in the changing world order . The question is - what is the strategic benefits for the India by moving closer to US? While the world has changed from India perspective, the world too has changed from US perspective. For USA, India is huge market. Unlike China, India is willing to consider US products and welcome US multinational companies. Secondly, being China's neighbour - India may be "useful" in balancing act. For example India long term desire for the permanent UNSC seat. Third, for USA - India's internal problems and conflicts with it's neighbours specially China and Pakistan offer some opportunity to control India ambitions.
For India, US is no more a strong or economic super power. This is a country in long term decline. Wriggling to come out of the domestic and international issues - US at the best is a near term bet. The world economic power is shifting to east. China, the 3rd largest economy is India's neighbour. Korea, Taiwan or Japan (2nd largest economy) are in Asia. US, UK and most of the European nations are technically bankrupt. All these countries need a Churchill or Teddy Roosevelt class leaders. As it stands, Obama's second term presidency is in jeopardy. Forget Americans, even democrats are seeing Obama a bigger liability, is a beleaguered leader.
India suffers from big hangovers. For many decades even after independence India had Raj hangover. It took many decades for India to realise the declining UK global power. Then it suffered from Socialist hangover - even after Soviet collapse and end of cold war. It took Rao and Singh to give a new strategic direction. Next year marks 20 years of India's economic liberalisation. Is it not the time that - India should reflect and consider if it is getting US hangover?
All numbers indicate strongly that future is in East. For India, the future lies with peaceful neighbours and coming out of past hangovers. Taking a lead from China - standing firm and expressing independent views. For example, UN is dead. UNSC permanent seat would cost more for Indian tax payer. But only a symbolic power that is of no use. What Germany would gain if offered a UNSC seat? The problem for India is - long standing border disputes with China and Pakistan (including Kashmir). The problem for India is - domestic issues like corruptions or naxalism or political system. If India could settle these issues independently or decisively, it could be a stronger nation at the heart of Asia, in East.
Clinton and Bush came to India in their 2nd terms. Obama arrived in the 1st term. Future US Presidents may make many trips to India both in their 1st and 2nd terms. But, India moved too far away from Clinton era India. All these visits are to protect US interests. Is India getting into US hangover? Perhaps, next few years would tell - if it is India's strategic "mis"direction.
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