Forget Telangana state for now

The extreme heat that pushed Andhra Pradesh state into chaos in December is slowly going down. While most of Andhra and Rayalaseema is quiet by and large, the few tremors are seen in Telangana region. The JAC in either regions is loosing support. As everything is seems to be coming to normal, now we seeing K Chandrasekhara Rao re-entry and his comic statements as well.

Congress high command did excellent job. Slowly Government of India moved in the direction of forming a committee to "look and understand the state of affairs in Andhra Pradesh". Justice Srikrishna credibility is a big plus point for the committee even though no terms and references have been given. Nor any time frame has been stipulated.

Now, where we are - I think Telanagana state is still a dream as it was in 1969. Let me explain my thoughts:

1. Justice Srikrishna commission is a simply a fact finding commission. It will restate the fact that there is strong support for Unified Andhra Pradesh in Coastal and Rayalaseema regions and significant support for Telangana in north Telangana and feeble support in and around Hyderabad metro area and south Telangana

2. The report when it comes out, will be nothing but putting all the chaotic feelings in orderly manner

3. Based on the split support, and having seen the voluntary public revolt in Andhra and Rayalaseema regions any decision for Telangana will be met with strong resistance

4. At the same time a status quo will ignite troubles in Telanaga region.

5. The decision on Telangana can be taken only in the Congress party national interest. With lesser Loksabha seats in the Telangana region Congress cannot risk loosing significant number of MPs in Andhra region.

6. Hence as it is done during the last two elections, Telangana will be in Congress agenda for 2014 (or manifesto).

7. If BJP fortunes return for good, then 2014 elections would be a close call. In the case, it AP will be all the more critical for Congress party success.

8. 2014, will see the raise of Telugu Desam party. With this hopeless congress government, I wonder if congress would get the third time lucky. If TDP will return to power is a billion dollar question at this moment, ofcourse.

9. If TDP comes to power in 2014, Chandrababu Naidu will crush the Telangana movement even if BJP regain power. Even otherwise, Babu will not allow bifurcation of the state

10. With so much of stake at Centre and state, Congress will play safe and put the Telangana state in suspended animation.

Like BSE index will see, some bear rallies in coming months and in the end, Telangana will remain a distant dream at least until 2014