For the for past 61 years India and Pakistan are on a low intensity war. This is perhaps one of the longest running running battles in the the contemporary world history. If the genesis can be traced to Kashmir and division of undivided British India on religious lines yet, India remained largely a Secular Democratic Country in the world. While Pakistan founded on the democratic and secular principles - it slowly slipped into a religious state mostly governed by the military, with nominal democracy.
Both countries fought direct wars in 1947, 1965, 1971 and the last one in 1998. If we have a close look at the genesis of these wars - while 1947 was about Kashmir, 1971 was about Bangladesh - the last one in 1998 was essentially a proxy war in Kargil.
Since 1991 - by when the Kashmir problem become real contentious issue between both the countries - Pakistan from the experience in Afghanistan realised that waging a low intensity was is more economical and fruitful than direct conflict. Though 1998 Kargil conflict is high intensity proxy war, from the beginning of new millennium, Pakistan changed it strategy.
Pakistan penetration into heart of India would not have been possible if tragic Babri Masjid incident was averted by India. Like what happened in Punjab after - Golden Temple incident in 1980's - the religion became central theme. That way 1993 was the hallmark year Indian history, when the first terrorist attacks in Mumbai took place and from then it became a regular phenomenon.
Religion is the opium for the masses. If Babri was a tragic incident, the followup actions from the Government of India and politicians at that time was even more disastrous. Both Congress and BJP used this as a political platform for the their mean goals without understanding the larger consequences.
On the other side in Pakistan, keeping alive Kashmir issue or highlighting aggravation of their religious fraternity in India have become political ammunition for Pakistani Parties and Military.
By late 1990's Religion has come important platform for elections success both in Democratic Republic of India and Islamic Republic Of Pakistan. While Indian Muslims by and large got favourable treatment in India, the religious minorities in Pakistan have got suppressed even further. Despite this favourable treatments, it is now clear that India is loosing the support of it's even moderate Muslims.
Western powers have seen this conflict as a good Business opportunity or serve as a strategic importance for the purpose of their own international interests until 9/11/2001. Suddenly the world woke up to see new realities and treats. Western powers realised for the first time that they are under treat on their own soil.
Pakistan became initially key for the solution, until they realised by now that Pakistan itself is the problem. Economically and politically - Pakistan is nothing to loose from where they are now. At the same time, Pakistan can potentially make a devastating impact - with it's nuclear arsenal, proximity to so called insurgent groups, military power and lack of strong military leadership. These are all Pakistan's own problems. And it is Pakistanis who must find solutions for them - not international community (for example, like Zimbabwe).
Government Of India lacks a consensus on how to deal with the current and emerging situation. For example, even after a month passed - India failed to come out with a any credible evidence that some of the internal forces with in India have abetted attackers. It is foolish to convince the world - that some ten youths from a foreign country landed on Indian shores and then attacked commercial capital without any local support. Also, India's only evidence is the lone terrorist captured alive in Mumbai. By concentrating too much on "Kasab" India lost opportunity to look into many other options.
How safe are Indian borders? What happened to the Coast Guards and Navy - that is stationed in Mumbai?
It is time to realise that India cannot get anything out of Pakistan. Pakistan proved to be extremely smart and clever in dealing with these international pressures. Despite the current state of affairs, Pakistan is acutely aware of their value in international perspective and know how to get mileage. Already Pakistan started counter attack on India and even talking bravely about a direct war.
To be honest, India does not have any international military value. From where it is - India is bound to loose it economic growth and secular credentials - if political leadership fails to understand the complexities.
Failing to resolve the Kashmir issue was the fundamental to these escalations. It is unfortunate that having come close during Agra Summit the agreement failed. It is time that India recognise the LoC as international border and close the matter for good. This is where it requires the support of international community. But neither Indian nor Pakistani politicians are keen to resolve this issue for obvious reasons.
Also, it is time India stops blaming Pakistan (and vice versa) for every incident on their soil. Look inside, find out who is giving moral, logistic and monetary support and take them out of equation.
In nutshell, with secured borders and keeping an eye on internal elements that support these causes, resolving Kashmir issue are key for success on India's war on Terror.
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