Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Mumbai Attacks And Fragmented India Response

26/11 - a black night in Indian history. The nation was shaken. With live news and broadcasts flashing across internet and TV channels, citizens watched the show hopelessly. Confidence of Mumbai, the commercial capital of India shaken. Mumbiakars - said "it will never be same again". Across the world, support for India started pouring. Three top Mumbai police officers including the controversial ATS chief Hamant Karkare were killed. Indians became emotional. With in hours, all fingers started pointing towards Pakistan. Everybody wanted an action from Government Of India.

One month has passed since the attacks. What did Government Of India achieved?

  1. The Federal Home Minister Shivraj Patil resigned due to his failure to prevent now regular terrorist attacks across India.
  2. The Maharashtra Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh Resigned after he took his actor son along with Ramgopal Varma the bollywood director - with a pretext to see the Taj Hotel to develop a Bollywood story.
  3. The Maharashtra Deputy CM Resigned after saying "such small things do happen" and further boasting that "they have limited the damage under 200 causalities - while Terrorists while aiming in excess of 5000"
  4. The lone terrorist caught alive during the attacks - Kasab is lodged in a Mumbai jail for interrogation. While his identity remains a mistery even with the 21st Century technology.
  5. Condi Rice and Gordon Brown visited India to show of strength (both of them also visited Pakistan during the same visit)
  6. India blamed Pakistani forces for the attacks and Pakistan has been asking for the proof.
  7. India raised the diplomatic offensive. Handed a list of most wanted list to Pakistan.
  8. The border tensions have raised and both side are now talking about attack and defence.
  9. Abdul Rehman Antulay the Federal Cabinet Minister raised questions about the death of Hemant Karkare - if there was a conspiracy.

What Government of India wanted to do? To be honest I did not understand so far.

Every tragedy requires a villain and hence as usual couple of Ministers were sent home (they will be back soon into public life after next elections again)

Until now, India failed to convince Pakistan about Kasab. Probably India may never prove that - because, Pakistan will not accept the evidence.

Pakistan will not send anyone including Dawood Ibrahim to India. India cannot be that stupid to think Pakistan will surrender.

By raising the border tension and talking about the attack - India is diverting the core issue. If India strikes Pakistan, then India is creating a new dimension. Even if attacks Pakistan (let's say hypothetically), what will be the goal?

Finally, Antulay put enough water on the fire. Indian Government is in a big dilemma. It is still in a quandary to decide between it's vote bank and national pride.

While all this is happening, Pakistan is consolidating it's position to play between Afghanistan and India. It knows if aggression (or tensions) on Indian side comes up - Pakistan can move it's troops from Afghan border. This will consolidate Taliban and weaken US and UK forces. US and USA will not agree to such a scenario.

I think Pakistan despite bening a fractured nation proved more united in the current circumstances with better strategy than India, despite international support lacks a strategy.

It is a matter of time these Mumbai attacks would join the long list of other attacks from Assam to Gujarat, Karnataka to Delhi - but Government of India will not learn any lessons.

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