Going by the recent reports, majority people are lead to believe that Congress High Command is now close to take a decision on Telengana. Since Congress came to the power in 2004 the Political, Cultural, Economic and Social equations in the state are in constant flux. Soon after the sudden demise of YS Rajasekhar Reddy - during the tenure of Rosaiah the state went through it's worst patch. However the current Chief Minister could moderate the situation to a great extent. As it stands, the Telengana movement is off the cliff. The Telengana Rastra Samithi (TRS) and it's maverick leader K Chandra Sekhara Rao (KCR) have more or less come to a conclusion that the current UPA government would not grant the Telengana statehood.
At this juncture, while the agitation is subdued and normalcy is returning in the state, recent decision of Union Home Minister Shinde is a surprise. This process, I would imagine it is more of a strategic move of Congress. It's survivability in power post 2014 elections, now firmly hangs on the numbers returned to Parliament from Andhra Pradesh.
Coming to the facts, it is an open secret that the Congress party and it's Government general health is very bad. The Congress MP numbers elected from Andhra Pradesh were key for the two term UPA Government. Also, Congress never formed Government at Delhi without winning Andhra Pradesh. If Congress were to form the next Government in 2014 and crown Rahul Gandhi the next Prime Minister - it is the time Congress must take some important strategic decisions.
From ground zero (the possibility of winning no seats), the decision should be purely for short term gains. Already some Congress spin doctors in Andhra region are singing to the tunes of High Command supporting Telengana State. The key challenge though is to take a prudent decision out of infinite options - including no decision.
To put it in plain and simple terms, formation of Telengana is more than a political decision. Passions would run very high on the other side in Seema-Andhra (as we have seen in Telengana region until now) and people would come on to the roads spontaneously. While Telugu Desam got into the political trap, Jagan and his YSR Congress is non-committal on the bifurcation. When emotions raked up, logical explanation would not work. TDP and Congress would washout in elections. In a nutshell, YSR Congress clean sweep in both State and Parliament elections (in Seema - Andhra). It would become reckoning force in national political scene.
On the other side, in Telengana - as it happened with Prajarajyam Party, TRS would merge with Congress. This combined political entity (Congress + TRS) would gain good numbers in elections, but it is not going to be a clean sweep. Hyderabad Metro area, Khammam, Nalgonda, Mahabub Nagar districts would become key battle grounds. It is hard to tell, but in all likelihood - YSR Congress may emerge winner in these close contests.
Since TRS would lose it's public identity, like PRP it would become irrelevant. TDP would continue to have another 5 years of opposition benches behind Congress in Andhra and behind YSR Congress in Telengana.
Now going back to Delhi backroom operator strategy, the numbers as a
result of decision on Telengana (pure bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh) would not help Congress and NDA. While this outcome is a disaster for TDP, Congress would as well pay a heavy
price. Then why would Congress high command go for a decision that
would immensely benefit their political opponent?
Hence, Congress would need a different strategy that would accommodate "interests" of the three regions in some ratio and at the same time maximize the benefit for the party. If full Telengana statehood is granted, then the credit would go to TRS and in particular KCR. Again while Congress is in power all the credit must go to Gandhi's. In the long run, though it could seek "strategic" understanding with the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy - it is difficult to imagine if Jagan would be a Chiranjeevi to surrender completely. Now that he has been languishing in the jail for too long, Jagan would definitely seek a political revenge. Immediate crowing of Rahul Gandhi is very difficult. Again the key question - why to take a decision comes back to the frame.
Here is crux of the issue - Hyderabad metro area.
Congress would have to come with a Bollywood movie style climax. Finish all the opponents and make the audience very happy. Make Madam Gandhi and Price Rahul heroes.
The theme is - Grant Telengana state without Hyderabad Metro. On the face of it, Telengana side politicians would at first resist the decision. As it is happening with Mayawati or Mulayam, Congress high command could use the "Assets" or "CBI" to force KCR and the vocal Congress leaders to silence. Any residual resistance would taper off once the passions subside. On face of it Telangana is granted. For KCR, ambition of becoming Chief Minister would be full filled, perhaps for one term. Subsequently, the new Telengana State would be fertile ground for BJP.
On the other side in Rayalaseema and Andhra regions, as long is Hyderabad is out of newly proposed Telengana state, then all classes of people would be more or less satisfied. Political and business class would see potential opportunity to "develop" a new state (Seemandhra or Andhra Pradesh as it would be called). It is not difficult to sell both logic and emotions to the mass voters. Any resistance from united Andhra forces would similarly taper off soon afterwards.
Since MIM is out Congress favour (perhaps their strategic blunder), they have limited options to resist. As long as Hyderabad is kept out, on the face of it - it is good decision for Muslims. With long term prospects for BJP on raise with in the new Telengana State, MIM also gain equally. If Hyderabad is made a new State (or Union Territory) - MIM is likely to form a Government sooner than later.
For Congress, this decision would ensure footing on either side of the fence. YSR Congress cannot sweep the state. Telegu Desam Party and Chandrababu Naidu would be blamed by all quarters. Congress back room operators can always play a secular card and form alliance with MIM.
New States would return to a sort of normalcy and 2014 elections run would kick off.
Rahul Gandhi would be praised for his extraordinary political acumen for resolving a complex issue simmering for nearly five decades or more!
Win for Congress and MIM. Partial win for TRS and YSR Congress. Total loss for TDP.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Remembering the unfortunate Women of India
It is only a matter of the time all the outbursts across the nation, shock and grief would fade away once the great nation get into the joy of new year celebrations. Already, all the neta's and babu's have given their well prepared statements and, soon the Delhi rape case would enter the annals. The brave girl who fought for 13 days of post-brutalities would be forgotten by one and all. The common man would come to terms and get busy with the daily routine. The political class would score their points, by explaining that no stone was left unturned. Their "claim" of best medical treatment and chartered flights to Singapore would be suffice to beg for votes. The cynical opposition would call for the justice, abetting few hartals conveniently forgetting their own track record while in the power.
What baffles me is of accountability. When I was a school, my teacher told me a story of moral accountability of a political leader. In 1950's while Lal bahadur Shastri was the Railway minister, a train accident in South India killed many passengers. Shastri immediately submitted his resignation to Nehru, then Prime Minister taking on full responsibility for the incident. Despite Nehru's persuasion, Shastri ji, did not yield. Finally, While accepting the resignation Nehru said "I personally do not believe Shastri ji was in any way responsible for this incident - yet, I am accepting his resignation to set high standards in public life" Shastri did not even use his official car to get back to his home. There are many train accidents since Shastri's decision, yet the decision was a moral high ground. The sense of guilt permeated across all those who failed in their duties.
Now coming back to the present incident, the political class, spin doctors and the media have conveniently shifted the blame and accountability on to those six beasts. All the powerful law makers and the law keepers - including but not limited to Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Sheila Dixit, Sushil Kumar Shinde, Neeraj Kumar (the Delhi Police Commissioner), Union Home Ministry, Delhi Law and Order have spent all time and energy to "damage control" or "media management". None of them have guts to come out any take moral responsibility for the shocking incident. In essence, this incident or series of incidents of this nature summarize the state of the nation. All of them are well aware of the proven fact "collective public memory is poor". Today the nation suffers from "excessive" paranoia
A permanent stark reminder is an imminent requirement of these times. On the lines of memories for the fallen soldiers, on the lines of the glorified graves for the political leaders who failed of their responsibilities. There is no better place than - area around India Gate in Central Delhi. A memorial for Bharat nari, with the in scripted names of known and unknown women who have fallen victims and brutalities on account of - lust of a man, greed of a woman, madness of a religion, convenience of a cast, arrogance of power, freedom of political class or any of the thousandth reason.
Let the nation remember them on 26th Jan and 15th Aug of each year!
What baffles me is of accountability. When I was a school, my teacher told me a story of moral accountability of a political leader. In 1950's while Lal bahadur Shastri was the Railway minister, a train accident in South India killed many passengers. Shastri immediately submitted his resignation to Nehru, then Prime Minister taking on full responsibility for the incident. Despite Nehru's persuasion, Shastri ji, did not yield. Finally, While accepting the resignation Nehru said "I personally do not believe Shastri ji was in any way responsible for this incident - yet, I am accepting his resignation to set high standards in public life" Shastri did not even use his official car to get back to his home. There are many train accidents since Shastri's decision, yet the decision was a moral high ground. The sense of guilt permeated across all those who failed in their duties.
Now coming back to the present incident, the political class, spin doctors and the media have conveniently shifted the blame and accountability on to those six beasts. All the powerful law makers and the law keepers - including but not limited to Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Sheila Dixit, Sushil Kumar Shinde, Neeraj Kumar (the Delhi Police Commissioner), Union Home Ministry, Delhi Law and Order have spent all time and energy to "damage control" or "media management". None of them have guts to come out any take moral responsibility for the shocking incident. In essence, this incident or series of incidents of this nature summarize the state of the nation. All of them are well aware of the proven fact "collective public memory is poor". Today the nation suffers from "excessive" paranoia
A permanent stark reminder is an imminent requirement of these times. On the lines of memories for the fallen soldiers, on the lines of the glorified graves for the political leaders who failed of their responsibilities. There is no better place than - area around India Gate in Central Delhi. A memorial for Bharat nari, with the in scripted names of known and unknown women who have fallen victims and brutalities on account of - lust of a man, greed of a woman, madness of a religion, convenience of a cast, arrogance of power, freedom of political class or any of the thousandth reason.
Let the nation remember them on 26th Jan and 15th Aug of each year!
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Modi's moment in India's history
Last 10 years or so Gujarat got a great story to tell, weaved around the enigmatic, decisive and razor sharp Chief Minister Narendra bhai Modi. For his critics Modi is a hardcore Hindu nationalist who benefited immensely by playing the communal politics and "disturbing" Gujarat's secular fabric. The decade old Gujarat riots keep haunting his Government (and himself). For most of the progressive and Capitalistic mindset Gujarati's - Modi is a catalyst for catapulting their own individual dreams.
Modi managed to provide a genuine development platform, free from both bureaucratic hindrances and corruption scandals. These two are greatest achievement for any head of a Government in India. Over the past 7-8 years, India has been rocked by sequential corruption scandals. Even the saintly Manmohan Singh's honesty is in question. Yet, there are none in Gujarat.
Modi's administrative dexterity is genuinely praised even by his detractors. He is a blend of Chandrababu Naidu on Administation, MG Ramachandran on emotional intelligence and connecting with the people of the state, Sardar Patel in decision making. Add to that - his simple and frugal life style being unique advantages. Being a bachelor, he does have to bother of issues being faced by Karunaidhi or worry of family legacy like Gandhi-Nehru scions.
Like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the much adored Prime Minister of India, Modi had his roots in RSS. While Vajpayee adroitly handled the critical issues that mattered his image or stature - Modi failed to act decisively at the time of Guajrat riots. While Vajapayee had the benefit of Advani to handle the Ayadhya crisis (though he was indicted by Ayodhya Commission) - Modi could not get perfect alibi for the acts of his Government (from the media point of view) though he was cleared of any involvement by Courts.
India had a long history of communal riots and pogroms. Thousands of innocent Sikhs were massacred post Indira Gandhi assassination. Yet, none in the Government were indicted. No one is haunted for the tragic death's of Sikhs. Still, millions of Sikh voices around the world plead justice. Congress self justice perhaps, Manmohan Singh a rank outsider is the two term Prime Minister of India. Yet, Dr Singh despite being the most power man in India (on paper at least) - could not bring justice to those innocent souls and families. Hyderabad, Assam, Bengal, Mumbai and host of the cities have witnessed pogroms over the past 60 years. Yet none in Government were booked.
This is the crux of the contemporary Indian politics. Religion on most of the times helps for career progression in India than bringing justice to their fraternity or fulfilling the "false"promises. Even if BJP were to rule India for 100 years, I am sure that Ram Temple at Ayodhya would not be build! It is easy to trap an average Indian with emotional pledge - and political class have mastered this art with perfection.
Any pogrom, let it be a reaction, response or willful is always unfortunate. There are some key aftermath events to be assessed to understand the consequences. There no riots in Gujarat since and there is no exodus of minorities to other states or abroad. Unlike in Mumbai, where even Hindu's live fear under Shivsena scanner, Gujarat has no such precedence. Narendra Modi is miles behind Bal Thackaray who lived most of his life time on false promises but never found solution for his diehard followers on his "subjugation theory" in their own Maratha empire. Equally, Modi is way behind canny Congress which has long history of divisive politics under the Secular umbrella. The simmering cast, religious and regional issues, mostly are thanks to visionary political acumen of Congress leadership [Thanks to Congress, Hyderabad once a vibrant beacon city lost it's direction and dramatically declined during the Congress rule]
Recently, after watching the Sardar movie, I felt that the contextual position of Modi is no different to Sardar Patel. When the crunch moment came to select the future Prime Minister of India, Pandit Nehru was the 3rd choice of Congress Regional Committees. Despite being the on top of the preference list, Gandhi requested Patel to make way for Jawahar Lal Nehru. That was the moment perhaps, course of free India changed decisively.
Today, Modi's biggest challenge is not from Congress but from within. The in-cohesive, demotivated BJP leadership - with no respectable leader to fit into the shoes of Vajpayee have turned themselves into mockery. The RSS faith in their Nagpur neighborhood Gadkari who is anything but a failure, the [greedy] ambitions of Advani, ambiguity of Susha Swaraj and finally Arvind Khejriwal's onslaught not only caused serious damage to BJP reputation at the national level but landed them in chaos. Despite Government apparent vulnerability on various fronts, today BJP is neither in position to counter nor take onslaught from Congress or UPA. Recent debacle in FDI voting reflects the awfully tragic situation and vacuum of decisive leadership. Having run out of all options at Delhi, BJP's only hope is Modi.
The frustrated Indian citizens are hungry of good governance from South Block - with a vision and deliverance of tangible results. This is Modi's moment in India's history - While Gandhi stopped Patel, it is RSS which is coming in the way of Modi. Or do they prefer Rahul Gandhi instead? .
Modi managed to provide a genuine development platform, free from both bureaucratic hindrances and corruption scandals. These two are greatest achievement for any head of a Government in India. Over the past 7-8 years, India has been rocked by sequential corruption scandals. Even the saintly Manmohan Singh's honesty is in question. Yet, there are none in Gujarat.
Modi's administrative dexterity is genuinely praised even by his detractors. He is a blend of Chandrababu Naidu on Administation, MG Ramachandran on emotional intelligence and connecting with the people of the state, Sardar Patel in decision making. Add to that - his simple and frugal life style being unique advantages. Being a bachelor, he does have to bother of issues being faced by Karunaidhi or worry of family legacy like Gandhi-Nehru scions.
Like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the much adored Prime Minister of India, Modi had his roots in RSS. While Vajpayee adroitly handled the critical issues that mattered his image or stature - Modi failed to act decisively at the time of Guajrat riots. While Vajapayee had the benefit of Advani to handle the Ayadhya crisis (though he was indicted by Ayodhya Commission) - Modi could not get perfect alibi for the acts of his Government (from the media point of view) though he was cleared of any involvement by Courts.
India had a long history of communal riots and pogroms. Thousands of innocent Sikhs were massacred post Indira Gandhi assassination. Yet, none in the Government were indicted. No one is haunted for the tragic death's of Sikhs. Still, millions of Sikh voices around the world plead justice. Congress self justice perhaps, Manmohan Singh a rank outsider is the two term Prime Minister of India. Yet, Dr Singh despite being the most power man in India (on paper at least) - could not bring justice to those innocent souls and families. Hyderabad, Assam, Bengal, Mumbai and host of the cities have witnessed pogroms over the past 60 years. Yet none in Government were booked.
This is the crux of the contemporary Indian politics. Religion on most of the times helps for career progression in India than bringing justice to their fraternity or fulfilling the "false"promises. Even if BJP were to rule India for 100 years, I am sure that Ram Temple at Ayodhya would not be build! It is easy to trap an average Indian with emotional pledge - and political class have mastered this art with perfection.
Any pogrom, let it be a reaction, response or willful is always unfortunate. There are some key aftermath events to be assessed to understand the consequences. There no riots in Gujarat since and there is no exodus of minorities to other states or abroad. Unlike in Mumbai, where even Hindu's live fear under Shivsena scanner, Gujarat has no such precedence. Narendra Modi is miles behind Bal Thackaray who lived most of his life time on false promises but never found solution for his diehard followers on his "subjugation theory" in their own Maratha empire. Equally, Modi is way behind canny Congress which has long history of divisive politics under the Secular umbrella. The simmering cast, religious and regional issues, mostly are thanks to visionary political acumen of Congress leadership [Thanks to Congress, Hyderabad once a vibrant beacon city lost it's direction and dramatically declined during the Congress rule]
Recently, after watching the Sardar movie, I felt that the contextual position of Modi is no different to Sardar Patel. When the crunch moment came to select the future Prime Minister of India, Pandit Nehru was the 3rd choice of Congress Regional Committees. Despite being the on top of the preference list, Gandhi requested Patel to make way for Jawahar Lal Nehru. That was the moment perhaps, course of free India changed decisively.
Today, Modi's biggest challenge is not from Congress but from within. The in-cohesive, demotivated BJP leadership - with no respectable leader to fit into the shoes of Vajpayee have turned themselves into mockery. The RSS faith in their Nagpur neighborhood Gadkari who is anything but a failure, the [greedy] ambitions of Advani, ambiguity of Susha Swaraj and finally Arvind Khejriwal's onslaught not only caused serious damage to BJP reputation at the national level but landed them in chaos. Despite Government apparent vulnerability on various fronts, today BJP is neither in position to counter nor take onslaught from Congress or UPA. Recent debacle in FDI voting reflects the awfully tragic situation and vacuum of decisive leadership. Having run out of all options at Delhi, BJP's only hope is Modi.
The frustrated Indian citizens are hungry of good governance from South Block - with a vision and deliverance of tangible results. This is Modi's moment in India's history - While Gandhi stopped Patel, it is RSS which is coming in the way of Modi. Or do they prefer Rahul Gandhi instead? .
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Adieu to a mediocre Finance Minister of India
Roughly a decade ago one of my highly ambitious friend claimed that at the rate of India economic growth, decent jobs in Western world would dry up. India was shining, is a often repeated slogan. A new word Chindia was coined to represent the two super fast economies of the world. In one of the surveys, Indians were rated the happiest people in the world. The word pessimism was not in dictionary. During one of my trips to India, the sings are clearly visible. Specially, the young generation was sounding very optimistic and confident. A few stories like a 22 year old buying car and then gifting to her father, who worked all his life hard and remained a middle class retiree caught my attention. It was incredible, as the social mobility appeared like a cat walk.
FII's the ghost entities of Western world were scripting all the great stories. The prediction was BSE Sensex would touch 50000. The flow of dolllar funds were unabated. The poster boys for Economic Times were ubiquitous. India was soon predicted to over take most of the Western Economies with the exception of US.
All that was going well under sunshine changed abruptly, post Vajpayee era. The good omen and promise of sustained momentum under Manmohan Singh rapidly faded. In a short span of two or three years, India lost it's direction. In a nutshell the clumsy politics punctured the growth engine and since then, India went deep into the crisis as days, weeks and months passed by. Scams and corruption scandals ejected out the development. Some of the poster boys along with good number of political companions landed in the iconic Tihar jail.
As the nation lacked vision and direction myopic politicians with no credible public record took the front seat. Almost a modern day story evolved on the lines of the Indian classic Mahabharata. The people with moral authority remained blind and dumb. There is no Governance as such with regional issues ranging from Telangana or political compulsions or brickbats taking front seat while nation and it's citizens were left to their own fate.
India today tops list of suicides in the world. More alarmingly, the the highest concentration of these numbers are in the age group 15-29, who were the most confident and ambitious a decade ago.Nepotism is now, the twin cousin of the corruption in India. It is mandatory and unwritten criteria that next generation Politicians, Businessmen, Film actors, Media moguls must come from the same families. Social mobility is severely restricted at this juncture than any time in past 60 odd years.
If the issues are so gigantic in nature, then why our Finance Minister and his mediocre performance matters? By the admission of Congress, Pranab Mukherjee is the intellect, brilliant, sharp and great performer. His yeoman services both to the Congress Party and nation are unparalleled. If this is the view of Congress Party, the main concern is what will happen to nation from tomorrow? The Government will be left orphaned without a trouble shooter (glorified Spin Doctor).
The FM simply not presided over an anemic economy but, a consistently going down the hill GDP without any policy support. With high inflation making life of 99%'s India's hell, this is the FM who defined Rs26 / day earning is above poverty line. The FM presided over an economy, that by all the consensus is derailed as reported by FII and Credit rating agencies. The same Institutions whom they referenced constantly, during the sunshine years are now condemned for their views on the economy. While service sector and manufacturing are bearing the burnt of the policy, Technology sector may survive thanks to fast depreciating rupee. After 20 years baton came back to Manmohan Singh who often been claimed as architect of Indian economic reforms. Under the current circumstances, not even Dr Singh expect much to deliver.
If I fail to perform at work, I will be demoted or shown exit door. However, the FM who delivered worst economic figures has been promoted and sent to Rastrapthi Bhavan.
Incredible India!
FII's the ghost entities of Western world were scripting all the great stories. The prediction was BSE Sensex would touch 50000. The flow of dolllar funds were unabated. The poster boys for Economic Times were ubiquitous. India was soon predicted to over take most of the Western Economies with the exception of US.
All that was going well under sunshine changed abruptly, post Vajpayee era. The good omen and promise of sustained momentum under Manmohan Singh rapidly faded. In a short span of two or three years, India lost it's direction. In a nutshell the clumsy politics punctured the growth engine and since then, India went deep into the crisis as days, weeks and months passed by. Scams and corruption scandals ejected out the development. Some of the poster boys along with good number of political companions landed in the iconic Tihar jail.
As the nation lacked vision and direction myopic politicians with no credible public record took the front seat. Almost a modern day story evolved on the lines of the Indian classic Mahabharata. The people with moral authority remained blind and dumb. There is no Governance as such with regional issues ranging from Telangana or political compulsions or brickbats taking front seat while nation and it's citizens were left to their own fate.
India today tops list of suicides in the world. More alarmingly, the the highest concentration of these numbers are in the age group 15-29, who were the most confident and ambitious a decade ago.Nepotism is now, the twin cousin of the corruption in India. It is mandatory and unwritten criteria that next generation Politicians, Businessmen, Film actors, Media moguls must come from the same families. Social mobility is severely restricted at this juncture than any time in past 60 odd years.
If the issues are so gigantic in nature, then why our Finance Minister and his mediocre performance matters? By the admission of Congress, Pranab Mukherjee is the intellect, brilliant, sharp and great performer. His yeoman services both to the Congress Party and nation are unparalleled. If this is the view of Congress Party, the main concern is what will happen to nation from tomorrow? The Government will be left orphaned without a trouble shooter (glorified Spin Doctor).
The FM simply not presided over an anemic economy but, a consistently going down the hill GDP without any policy support. With high inflation making life of 99%'s India's hell, this is the FM who defined Rs26 / day earning is above poverty line. The FM presided over an economy, that by all the consensus is derailed as reported by FII and Credit rating agencies. The same Institutions whom they referenced constantly, during the sunshine years are now condemned for their views on the economy. While service sector and manufacturing are bearing the burnt of the policy, Technology sector may survive thanks to fast depreciating rupee. After 20 years baton came back to Manmohan Singh who often been claimed as architect of Indian economic reforms. Under the current circumstances, not even Dr Singh expect much to deliver.
If I fail to perform at work, I will be demoted or shown exit door. However, the FM who delivered worst economic figures has been promoted and sent to Rastrapthi Bhavan.
Incredible India!
Monday, June 18, 2012
Pranab Mukerjee - No Rubber Stamp President?
Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukerjee are the top three of the Congress coterie. However, each one of them come from widely different backgrounds. Decades back, Pranab was Singh's boss while later was RBI Governor. Dr Singh does not come with any political background. Despite his excellent credentials, Dr Singh's career track changed once for all when PV Narsimha Rao inducted him as his Finance Minister. Over the course of time, Dr Singh became Pranab's boss. Suspicions on his ambitions & intelligent dispositions plus his independent outlook perhaps denied Pranab the coveted Prime Minister position in 2004.
Unlike Singh, Pranab dada is a seasoned politician of a very high caliber. As an young MP of 1980's Pranab charmed Indira Gandhi with his knowledge and acumen. Despite having seniors like R Venkatraman or PV, Pranab had a meteoric career until he was shunted out by Rajiv Gandhi.
Too little is known of Sonia Gandhi intelligence. She rarely speaks. By all accounts she depends heavily on likes of Ahmed Patel for day to day running of the business and then a selected coterie of High command including Pranab and Singh - perhaps AK Anthony included. Heavy dependance on non-family members, perhaps is an indication that Rahul is not politically intelligent enough to make a mark.
As a result, Pranab became the key player in the Government. He is the key trouble shooter of resolving wide ranging issues or fronting the Government in the Parliament to take on opposition onslaught. The by word Pranab is indispensable entity for the Government day to day survival is not an exaggeration. With range of corruption scandals, Government non-performance, lagging economy, loosing investor confidence - circumstances strongly demand Mukherjee's presence in the Congress and government coterie.
Yet, Sonia Gandhi decided to nominate Pranab for the next President. Normally such decisions are not based on single drivers (except on the rare occasions like Indira Gandhi's son or Rajiv Gandhi's wife). In Pranab's case - of the drivers - the case of the Eastern turn was nipped in bud by none other than his fellow Bengali didi Mamata Benerjee. Of the two are three options Congress had - including the Vice President - the case for Pranab is based on a futuristic case for 2014. In all certainty - 2014 national election results would hold a big surprise and role of President would become paramount in decision making process in nominating next Prime Minister (Rahul Gandhi being Congress expectation). Other reason could be faithful service to Gandhi family on the lines of Pratibha Patil (besides the current President being the first women).
The hypothesis is President Mukherjee would remain a gulaam and take the directives from the 10, Janpath. Here comes the key differentiators as well the pointers. Dr Manmohan Singh despite reaching the pinnacle of the India political structure remained a gulaam to her madam as a thank you for nominating him the Prime Minister of India. What ever are his personal compulsions or obligations or insecurity on account of his babu (Government official) background, Dr Singh would go down in the Indian History as one of the least effective Prime Ministers of India who presided over one the corrupt and ineffective Administrations. When such assessment is made, Sonia Gandhi would not be in the context. Strangely, the last five years have seen one of the "incompetent and disconnected" President who again remained gulaam to her master for nominating her President Of India.
Against this backdrop of incompetent performances, likes of Abdul Kalam or KR Narayanan of recent past or R Venkatraman of 1990's have made significant difference and upheld sanctity of the highest office. Once they moved into the office they performed like a President, taking independent decisions and stamping their authority on the Government.
Even PV Narasimha Rao when elected Prime Minister, under the circumstances most of the Congress big shots of the time assumed that they could manage the PM remotely. However, once he moved in the Race Course Road - PV proved to be a hard nut to crack. What ever be the shortcomings of his office and despite all the odds - Rap stamped his authority on the policy issues and made sure that, all those changes are irreversible. Despite official Congress view, PV is rated on of the best Prime Ministers of India who steered the nation out of crisis and then put it on a growth path. In the nutshell despite his long innings as gulaam of the Congress high command, once given an opportunity and responsibility he ensured his stamp on the legacy.
Once elected President of India, Pranab Mukherjee will have a choice to become a good President like Sarvepalli Radhkrishnan or an insignificant President on the lines of Frakruddin Ali Ahmed or Pratibha Patil. All the pointers indicate that Pranab would be an independent President who would not fit into the Congress overall game plan (it is possible that he is the architect of this plan). Pranab unlike Dr Singh protected his reputation and when it mattered stood to the point. Also, this would be the final office before his retirement from the public life and hence, he would not have any compulsions or obligations for post retirement life.
Post 2014 elections, the world would be lot different. Let's see if he would opt for Modi or Rahul in case of a tie.
Good luck to Pranab Mukerjee and good luck to India!
Unlike Singh, Pranab dada is a seasoned politician of a very high caliber. As an young MP of 1980's Pranab charmed Indira Gandhi with his knowledge and acumen. Despite having seniors like R Venkatraman or PV, Pranab had a meteoric career until he was shunted out by Rajiv Gandhi.
Too little is known of Sonia Gandhi intelligence. She rarely speaks. By all accounts she depends heavily on likes of Ahmed Patel for day to day running of the business and then a selected coterie of High command including Pranab and Singh - perhaps AK Anthony included. Heavy dependance on non-family members, perhaps is an indication that Rahul is not politically intelligent enough to make a mark.
As a result, Pranab became the key player in the Government. He is the key trouble shooter of resolving wide ranging issues or fronting the Government in the Parliament to take on opposition onslaught. The by word Pranab is indispensable entity for the Government day to day survival is not an exaggeration. With range of corruption scandals, Government non-performance, lagging economy, loosing investor confidence - circumstances strongly demand Mukherjee's presence in the Congress and government coterie.
Yet, Sonia Gandhi decided to nominate Pranab for the next President. Normally such decisions are not based on single drivers (except on the rare occasions like Indira Gandhi's son or Rajiv Gandhi's wife). In Pranab's case - of the drivers - the case of the Eastern turn was nipped in bud by none other than his fellow Bengali didi Mamata Benerjee. Of the two are three options Congress had - including the Vice President - the case for Pranab is based on a futuristic case for 2014. In all certainty - 2014 national election results would hold a big surprise and role of President would become paramount in decision making process in nominating next Prime Minister (Rahul Gandhi being Congress expectation). Other reason could be faithful service to Gandhi family on the lines of Pratibha Patil (besides the current President being the first women).
The hypothesis is President Mukherjee would remain a gulaam and take the directives from the 10, Janpath. Here comes the key differentiators as well the pointers. Dr Manmohan Singh despite reaching the pinnacle of the India political structure remained a gulaam to her madam as a thank you for nominating him the Prime Minister of India. What ever are his personal compulsions or obligations or insecurity on account of his babu (Government official) background, Dr Singh would go down in the Indian History as one of the least effective Prime Ministers of India who presided over one the corrupt and ineffective Administrations. When such assessment is made, Sonia Gandhi would not be in the context. Strangely, the last five years have seen one of the "incompetent and disconnected" President who again remained gulaam to her master for nominating her President Of India.
Against this backdrop of incompetent performances, likes of Abdul Kalam or KR Narayanan of recent past or R Venkatraman of 1990's have made significant difference and upheld sanctity of the highest office. Once they moved into the office they performed like a President, taking independent decisions and stamping their authority on the Government.
Even PV Narasimha Rao when elected Prime Minister, under the circumstances most of the Congress big shots of the time assumed that they could manage the PM remotely. However, once he moved in the Race Course Road - PV proved to be a hard nut to crack. What ever be the shortcomings of his office and despite all the odds - Rap stamped his authority on the policy issues and made sure that, all those changes are irreversible. Despite official Congress view, PV is rated on of the best Prime Ministers of India who steered the nation out of crisis and then put it on a growth path. In the nutshell despite his long innings as gulaam of the Congress high command, once given an opportunity and responsibility he ensured his stamp on the legacy.
Once elected President of India, Pranab Mukherjee will have a choice to become a good President like Sarvepalli Radhkrishnan or an insignificant President on the lines of Frakruddin Ali Ahmed or Pratibha Patil. All the pointers indicate that Pranab would be an independent President who would not fit into the Congress overall game plan (it is possible that he is the architect of this plan). Pranab unlike Dr Singh protected his reputation and when it mattered stood to the point. Also, this would be the final office before his retirement from the public life and hence, he would not have any compulsions or obligations for post retirement life.
Post 2014 elections, the world would be lot different. Let's see if he would opt for Modi or Rahul in case of a tie.
Good luck to Pranab Mukerjee and good luck to India!
Friday, June 15, 2012
Jagan landslide and democarcy in dilemma
First time it was accident, second time it was luck - but if happens third time - it is a habit. Jagan Mohan Reddy as expected became a hero with resounding victories at Kadapa, Nellore and now across 16 constituencies in the state. These landslide victories have taught a lesson or two for most for his opponents. However, fresh questions have been raised by observers on the very genesis of his success with in the context of the democracy.
Executive, judiciary and legislature are the three pillars of the democracy. During the past 60 years, the key players in this System have made a mockery and the result is, a nation that has been paralyzed by non-performance and corruption scandals. As they have few options, citizens have elected scores of representatives with criminal records and sent them to both Parliament and state legislatures. Of them, until recently - Jagan Mohan Reddy is just one. However, with the game changing victories that knocked out Telugu Desam Party and Congress, fresh questions have been raised.
Some of the leaders in the state questioned the wisdom of the voters who have voted for the YSRCP. Some of the leaders branded the victory an emotional blackmail. Many of the bitter critics called it a doomsday. One high profile leader in the state even called it an accidental voting on account of circumstances. At once this victory moved the gravity from Jagan's corruption issues on which the elections have been fought by his opponents to, questioning citizens fundamental right in democracy - Vote.
Now the question is about who is right and who is wrong?
Jagan has been charged but he is not convicted. Taking the adage, no one is guilty until proven, people who have voted in the elections by and large did not believe what the Government of Andhra Pradesh, Eenadu, Andhra Jyothy, CBI, Congress Party and Chandra Babu Naidu have been claiming.
Within widely corrupted democratic system in India there are few holy cows. Some of the holy cows like Manmohan Singh, perhaps are more damaging to systems than the acknowledged rotten elements. Thus, there is locus standi for any debate based on corruption or honesty. As we have seen, when the time comes - all the forces across the party lines join to pip lokpal bill and in turn work towards damaging the reputation of Anna Hazare and his associates.
The key point is, the three pillars in democracy are expected to work for the poor, vulnerable and needy sections of the society. However, with the widening divide between rich and poor, most of the elected representative forget their constituents soon after getting a ticket to Delhi or Hyderabad. Despite all the allegations, both YS Rajasekhar Reddy and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy made the difference at this level. They have connected with the people. Listened to them. Tried to understand them. At the end, what matters to a voter is - how best they are taken care off. A mere statistic, or a simplified technocratic definition of poverty at Rs 26 per day, or a full meal to eke out a life?
When I visit a temple I do not question chastity of the priest. When I go to school, my focus is on how good my teacher is but not his background. At the end of the day, 99% people want solutions to their problems and opportunities for survival. Who cares if YSR or Jagan are corrupt as long as they take care of their constituents?
Many critics continue to question Jagan and his victory. May refuse to accept it. May come out statistics that his victory is not as convincing as it is seen. But the crux of the matter is Service to the Citizens. All those Congress and TDP leadership have amassed huge wealth and yet they cared little for the people. If they are serious to defeat Jagan, then there is no option but to connect with people and work for their welfare. It is high time if Chandrababu Naidu realize that, Eenadu with all the crap filings is key constituent of his down fall. Equally, Congress should have realized that, more they talk against YSR or Jagan they are exposing themselves.
The bottom line is, citizens are the foundation for the three pillar of the democracy. Despite all the allegation, Jagan's and YSRCP victory is honest in people court and it is in black and white. There is no scope for debate on this verdict.
Executive, judiciary and legislature are the three pillars of the democracy. During the past 60 years, the key players in this System have made a mockery and the result is, a nation that has been paralyzed by non-performance and corruption scandals. As they have few options, citizens have elected scores of representatives with criminal records and sent them to both Parliament and state legislatures. Of them, until recently - Jagan Mohan Reddy is just one. However, with the game changing victories that knocked out Telugu Desam Party and Congress, fresh questions have been raised.
Some of the leaders in the state questioned the wisdom of the voters who have voted for the YSRCP. Some of the leaders branded the victory an emotional blackmail. Many of the bitter critics called it a doomsday. One high profile leader in the state even called it an accidental voting on account of circumstances. At once this victory moved the gravity from Jagan's corruption issues on which the elections have been fought by his opponents to, questioning citizens fundamental right in democracy - Vote.
Now the question is about who is right and who is wrong?
Jagan has been charged but he is not convicted. Taking the adage, no one is guilty until proven, people who have voted in the elections by and large did not believe what the Government of Andhra Pradesh, Eenadu, Andhra Jyothy, CBI, Congress Party and Chandra Babu Naidu have been claiming.
Within widely corrupted democratic system in India there are few holy cows. Some of the holy cows like Manmohan Singh, perhaps are more damaging to systems than the acknowledged rotten elements. Thus, there is locus standi for any debate based on corruption or honesty. As we have seen, when the time comes - all the forces across the party lines join to pip lokpal bill and in turn work towards damaging the reputation of Anna Hazare and his associates.
The key point is, the three pillars in democracy are expected to work for the poor, vulnerable and needy sections of the society. However, with the widening divide between rich and poor, most of the elected representative forget their constituents soon after getting a ticket to Delhi or Hyderabad. Despite all the allegations, both YS Rajasekhar Reddy and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy made the difference at this level. They have connected with the people. Listened to them. Tried to understand them. At the end, what matters to a voter is - how best they are taken care off. A mere statistic, or a simplified technocratic definition of poverty at Rs 26 per day, or a full meal to eke out a life?
When I visit a temple I do not question chastity of the priest. When I go to school, my focus is on how good my teacher is but not his background. At the end of the day, 99% people want solutions to their problems and opportunities for survival. Who cares if YSR or Jagan are corrupt as long as they take care of their constituents?
Many critics continue to question Jagan and his victory. May refuse to accept it. May come out statistics that his victory is not as convincing as it is seen. But the crux of the matter is Service to the Citizens. All those Congress and TDP leadership have amassed huge wealth and yet they cared little for the people. If they are serious to defeat Jagan, then there is no option but to connect with people and work for their welfare. It is high time if Chandrababu Naidu realize that, Eenadu with all the crap filings is key constituent of his down fall. Equally, Congress should have realized that, more they talk against YSR or Jagan they are exposing themselves.
The bottom line is, citizens are the foundation for the three pillar of the democracy. Despite all the allegation, Jagan's and YSRCP victory is honest in people court and it is in black and white. There is no scope for debate on this verdict.
Saturday, May 26, 2012
Jaganmohan Reddy - Rock Solid Personality
There is nothing like a neutral opinion of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. Either you love him or hate him. He commands extreme loyalty from his supporters. For them he is modern Robin Hood. Born for the masses and welfare of the needy. He sustains remarkable energy levels. No other politician in the state's history traveled as widely across the state as Jagan, without elections even on the horizon. He commands huge crowds at this rallies. Always smiles and keeps his cool on most of the occasions. Unlike most of the ultra-rich Andhra Pradesh politicians Jagan never claimed either he is poor or innocent. His was not a rags to riches story. His father, late YS Rajasekhar Reddy - and his grandfather Raja Reddy were rich by any standard during their own life times. For decades, this family hold on Kadapa political scene is near complete. Let it be in Congress or outside Congress, Kadapa remained their fortress.
For his critics, Jagan is an unethical and corrupt person to the core. He misused his father's power to the core and amassed billions of dollars. These figures are wide and varied. At one end, the estimated wealth crosses in excess of Rs 50,000 crores (that is Rs 500, 000 millions or US $1billion). His bete noire claim it could be even four times. This staggering amount of wealth has been accumulated in a short span of about 5 years. Even by richer country standards making $1billion per year is not a mean task. However, officially Jagan declared asserts worth Rs 365 crores. At the same time, his wife owns assets worth 10 times more than himself. Going by norm as it is the case with most of the political and business class, his overall assets must be worth many time more. Besides misusing his father's power and amassing huge wealth, other chief allegation of his critics is centered his violent politics which is a norm in faction ridden Rayalaseema region. His name has been quoted by his opponents and their associated media - specially around the high profile murder of Paritala Ravi (Incidentally, Ravi himself was a product of the violent Rayalaseema politics, with many murder cases tagged to his name).
For neutral observers, Jagan is a strewed and power hungry politician. Soon after his father came to power, he started a big media company. Despite all the dubious accounts on it's genesis, Sakshi became a platform for providing alternative version and views to public. Until that point, Congress in the state did not have a vernacular media to provide a platform or support. Incidentally, Sakshi on some occasions successfully proved the dubious dealings of media baron Ramoji Rao with Eenadu facade that dented the reputation. Under the current jinxed circumstances, it is Sakshi providing Jagan with a saving grace - against a coordinated and scripted onslaught.
Jagan is a staunch Christian. Like Nehru-Gandhi family - Reddy tag is for public consumption. Jagan's great grandfathers' were converted Christians and there is no ambiguity. He is neither hypocritical like Rahul Gandhi who recently proclaimed himself a Brahmin. Rahul's mother Sonia Gandhi is Catholic, his father Rajiv Gandhi was born to a Hindu mother (Indira Gandhi) and a Parsi (Feroz Gandhi) with some claim that Feroz is of Muslim origins than Parsi . Interestingly, while many attributed YSR's political power and blessing from Delhi to his Christian faith (his master Sonia's faith), for Jagan it never mattered when he called shots at Sonia Gandhi.
Both Jagan and his father, know how to get best of their hereditary tags. In a nutshell, Jagan is acceptable face of dalits and dalit Christians who are the significant vote bank. His Reddy tag is good for Reddy dominated state politics. His wealth is good for the upper class opportunists like Businessmen and entrepreneurs. Going by the list of his close associates and benefactors from his father's time - most of them are Kamma's and few Reddi's. His party is filled with Kapu's who have been left in isolation by Chiranjeevi who is no more than a disaster in politics.
The arrest of Mopidevi Venkatarama, who comes from a backward class - provides the debating opportunity while, the upper caste ministers who have been charged have been spared for now from sending behind the bars. Jagan is strewed enough to exploit the opportunities. Not the least, there is no better time and opportunity to revive the Telugu people pride. No one stands a better chance than Jagan Mohan Reddy. Even his critics silently admit his public popularity. Perhaps, Jagan's direct confrontation with Congress high command may stem from his political acumen that Gandhi's power at Delhi is fast shrinking and it is the time of powerful regional satraps to decide who would sit in Delhi gaddi.
If I were to have Rs 50,000 crores or 4 times that amount - what would have I done? Why should I slog on the streets - day and night. Pick a direct confrontation with the most powerful political Gandhi family? Launch concurrent battle fronts with multiple opponents? Claim for a Chief Minister gaddi while father body was lying in state? Start a political party and take on do or die battles? Remain in public eye for wrong reasons? Risk getting arrested? and expose oneself and become vulnerable?
The singular answer is Jaganmohan Reddy is not from the standard school of politicians. He comes with incessant energy levels and Leading from the front mindset. Since NT Ramarao, on other politician in the state stirred so much of interest, passion and public debate in the state politics. Like his father, who struggled all along his political career, Jagan political career as well is a bumpy ride thus far. What ever is likely to happen in the coming months, for now - only one who can silence Jagan looks like Jagan himself. His critics and supports may continue to differ widely on opinions and views but, Jagan till now proved to be a strong willed, resilient and rock solid personality.
For his critics, Jagan is an unethical and corrupt person to the core. He misused his father's power to the core and amassed billions of dollars. These figures are wide and varied. At one end, the estimated wealth crosses in excess of Rs 50,000 crores (that is Rs 500, 000 millions or US $1billion). His bete noire claim it could be even four times. This staggering amount of wealth has been accumulated in a short span of about 5 years. Even by richer country standards making $1billion per year is not a mean task. However, officially Jagan declared asserts worth Rs 365 crores. At the same time, his wife owns assets worth 10 times more than himself. Going by norm as it is the case with most of the political and business class, his overall assets must be worth many time more. Besides misusing his father's power and amassing huge wealth, other chief allegation of his critics is centered his violent politics which is a norm in faction ridden Rayalaseema region. His name has been quoted by his opponents and their associated media - specially around the high profile murder of Paritala Ravi (Incidentally, Ravi himself was a product of the violent Rayalaseema politics, with many murder cases tagged to his name).
For neutral observers, Jagan is a strewed and power hungry politician. Soon after his father came to power, he started a big media company. Despite all the dubious accounts on it's genesis, Sakshi became a platform for providing alternative version and views to public. Until that point, Congress in the state did not have a vernacular media to provide a platform or support. Incidentally, Sakshi on some occasions successfully proved the dubious dealings of media baron Ramoji Rao with Eenadu facade that dented the reputation. Under the current jinxed circumstances, it is Sakshi providing Jagan with a saving grace - against a coordinated and scripted onslaught.
Jagan is a staunch Christian. Like Nehru-Gandhi family - Reddy tag is for public consumption. Jagan's great grandfathers' were converted Christians and there is no ambiguity. He is neither hypocritical like Rahul Gandhi who recently proclaimed himself a Brahmin. Rahul's mother Sonia Gandhi is Catholic, his father Rajiv Gandhi was born to a Hindu mother (Indira Gandhi) and a Parsi (Feroz Gandhi) with some claim that Feroz is of Muslim origins than Parsi . Interestingly, while many attributed YSR's political power and blessing from Delhi to his Christian faith (his master Sonia's faith), for Jagan it never mattered when he called shots at Sonia Gandhi.
Both Jagan and his father, know how to get best of their hereditary tags. In a nutshell, Jagan is acceptable face of dalits and dalit Christians who are the significant vote bank. His Reddy tag is good for Reddy dominated state politics. His wealth is good for the upper class opportunists like Businessmen and entrepreneurs. Going by the list of his close associates and benefactors from his father's time - most of them are Kamma's and few Reddi's. His party is filled with Kapu's who have been left in isolation by Chiranjeevi who is no more than a disaster in politics.
The arrest of Mopidevi Venkatarama, who comes from a backward class - provides the debating opportunity while, the upper caste ministers who have been charged have been spared for now from sending behind the bars. Jagan is strewed enough to exploit the opportunities. Not the least, there is no better time and opportunity to revive the Telugu people pride. No one stands a better chance than Jagan Mohan Reddy. Even his critics silently admit his public popularity. Perhaps, Jagan's direct confrontation with Congress high command may stem from his political acumen that Gandhi's power at Delhi is fast shrinking and it is the time of powerful regional satraps to decide who would sit in Delhi gaddi.
If I were to have Rs 50,000 crores or 4 times that amount - what would have I done? Why should I slog on the streets - day and night. Pick a direct confrontation with the most powerful political Gandhi family? Launch concurrent battle fronts with multiple opponents? Claim for a Chief Minister gaddi while father body was lying in state? Start a political party and take on do or die battles? Remain in public eye for wrong reasons? Risk getting arrested? and expose oneself and become vulnerable?
The singular answer is Jaganmohan Reddy is not from the standard school of politicians. He comes with incessant energy levels and Leading from the front mindset. Since NT Ramarao, on other politician in the state stirred so much of interest, passion and public debate in the state politics. Like his father, who struggled all along his political career, Jagan political career as well is a bumpy ride thus far. What ever is likely to happen in the coming months, for now - only one who can silence Jagan looks like Jagan himself. His critics and supports may continue to differ widely on opinions and views but, Jagan till now proved to be a strong willed, resilient and rock solid personality.
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