Bollywood Climax for Telengana

Going by the recent reports, majority people are lead to believe that Congress High Command is now close to take a decision on Telengana. Since Congress came to the power in 2004 the Political, Cultural, Economic and Social equations in the state are in constant flux. Soon after the sudden demise of YS Rajasekhar Reddy - during the tenure of Rosaiah  the state went through it's worst patch. However the current Chief Minister could moderate the situation to a great extent. As it stands, the Telengana movement is off the cliff. The Telengana Rastra Samithi (TRS) and it's maverick leader K Chandra Sekhara Rao (KCR) have more or less come to a conclusion that the current UPA government would not grant the Telengana statehood.

At this juncture, while the agitation is subdued and normalcy is returning in the state, recent decision of Union Home Minister Shinde is a surprise. This process, I would imagine it is more of a strategic move of Congress. It's survivability in power post 2014 elections, now firmly hangs on the numbers returned to Parliament from Andhra Pradesh.

Coming to the facts, it is an open secret that the Congress party and it's Government general health is very bad. The Congress MP numbers elected from Andhra Pradesh were key for the two term UPA Government. Also, Congress never formed Government at Delhi without winning Andhra Pradesh. If Congress were to form the next Government in 2014 and crown Rahul Gandhi the next Prime Minister - it is the time Congress must take some important strategic decisions.

From ground zero (the possibility of winning no seats), the decision should be purely for short term gains. Already some Congress spin doctors in Andhra region are singing to the tunes of High Command supporting Telengana State. The key challenge though is to take a prudent decision out of infinite options - including no decision.

To put it in plain and simple terms, formation of Telengana is more than a political decision. Passions would run very high on the other side in Seema-Andhra (as we have seen in Telengana region until now) and people would come on to the roads spontaneously.  While Telugu Desam got into the political trap, Jagan and his YSR Congress is non-committal on the bifurcation. When emotions raked up, logical explanation would not work. TDP and Congress would washout in elections. In a nutshell, YSR Congress clean sweep in both State and Parliament elections (in Seema - Andhra). It would become reckoning force in national political scene.

On the other side, in Telengana  - as it happened with Prajarajyam Party, TRS would merge with Congress. This combined political entity (Congress + TRS) would gain good numbers in elections, but it is not going to be a clean sweep. Hyderabad Metro area, Khammam, Nalgonda, Mahabub Nagar districts would become key battle grounds. It is hard to tell, but in all likelihood - YSR Congress may emerge winner in these close contests.

Since TRS would lose it's public identity, like PRP it would become irrelevant. TDP would continue to have another 5 years of opposition benches behind Congress in Andhra and behind YSR Congress in Telengana.

Now going back to Delhi backroom operator strategy, the numbers as a result of decision on  Telengana (pure bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh) would not help Congress and NDA. While this outcome is a disaster for TDP, Congress would as well pay a heavy price. Then why would Congress high command go for a decision that would immensely benefit their political opponent?

Hence, Congress would need a different strategy that would accommodate "interests" of the three regions in some ratio and at the same time maximize the benefit for the party. If full Telengana statehood is granted, then the credit would go to TRS and in particular KCR. Again while Congress is in power all the credit must go to Gandhi's. In the long run, though it could seek "strategic" understanding with the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy - it is difficult to imagine if Jagan would be a Chiranjeevi to surrender completely. Now that he has been languishing in the jail for too long, Jagan would definitely seek a political revenge. Immediate crowing of Rahul Gandhi is very difficult. Again the key question - why to take a decision comes back to the frame.

Here is crux of the issue - Hyderabad metro area.

Congress would have to come with a Bollywood movie style climax. Finish all the opponents and make the audience very happy. Make Madam Gandhi and Price Rahul heroes.

The theme is - Grant Telengana state without Hyderabad Metro. On the face of it, Telengana side politicians would at first resist the decision. As it is happening with Mayawati or Mulayam, Congress high command could use the "Assets" or "CBI" to force KCR and the vocal Congress leaders to silence. Any residual resistance would taper off once the passions subside. On face of it Telangana is granted. For KCR, ambition of becoming Chief Minister would be full filled, perhaps for one term. Subsequently,  the new Telengana State would be fertile ground for BJP.

On the other side in Rayalaseema and Andhra regions, as long is Hyderabad is out of newly proposed Telengana state, then all classes of people would be more or less satisfied. Political and business class would see potential opportunity to "develop" a new state (Seemandhra or Andhra Pradesh as it would be called). It is not difficult to sell both logic and emotions to the mass voters. Any resistance from united Andhra forces would similarly taper off soon afterwards.

Since MIM is out Congress favour (perhaps their strategic blunder), they have limited options to resist. As long as Hyderabad is kept out, on the face of it - it is good decision for Muslims. With long term prospects for  BJP on raise with in the new Telengana State, MIM also gain equally. If Hyderabad is made a new State (or Union Territory) - MIM is likely to form a Government sooner than later.

For Congress, this decision would ensure footing on either side of the fence. YSR Congress cannot sweep the state. Telegu Desam Party and Chandrababu Naidu would be blamed by all quarters. Congress back room operators can always play a secular card and form alliance with MIM.

New States would return to a sort of normalcy and 2014 elections run would kick off.

Rahul Gandhi would be praised for his extraordinary political acumen for resolving a complex issue simmering for nearly five decades or more!

Win for Congress and MIM. Partial win for TRS and YSR Congress. Total loss for TDP.