Monday, June 18, 2012

Pranab Mukerjee - No Rubber Stamp President?

Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and Pranab Mukerjee are the top three of the Congress coterie. However, each one of them come from widely different backgrounds. Decades back, Pranab was Singh's boss while later was RBI Governor. Dr Singh does not come with any political background. Despite his excellent credentials, Dr Singh's career track changed once for all when PV Narsimha Rao inducted him as his Finance Minister. Over the course of time, Dr Singh became Pranab's boss. Suspicions on his ambitions & intelligent dispositions plus his independent outlook perhaps denied Pranab the coveted Prime Minister position in 2004.

Unlike Singh, Pranab dada is a seasoned politician of a very high caliber. As an young MP of 1980's Pranab charmed Indira Gandhi with his knowledge and acumen. Despite having seniors like R Venkatraman or PV, Pranab had a meteoric career until he was shunted out by Rajiv Gandhi.

Too little is known of Sonia Gandhi intelligence. She rarely speaks. By all accounts she depends heavily on likes of Ahmed Patel for day to day running of the business and then a selected coterie of High command including Pranab and Singh - perhaps AK Anthony included. Heavy dependance on non-family members, perhaps is an indication that Rahul is not politically intelligent enough to make a mark.

As a result, Pranab became the key player in the Government. He is the key trouble shooter of resolving wide ranging issues or fronting the Government in the Parliament to take on opposition onslaught. The by word Pranab is indispensable entity for the Government day to day survival is not an exaggeration. With range of corruption scandals, Government non-performance, lagging economy, loosing investor confidence - circumstances strongly demand Mukherjee's presence in the Congress and government coterie.

Yet, Sonia Gandhi decided to nominate Pranab for the next President. Normally such decisions are not based on single drivers (except on the rare occasions like Indira Gandhi's son or Rajiv Gandhi's wife). In Pranab's case - of the drivers - the case of the Eastern turn was nipped in bud by none other than his fellow Bengali didi Mamata Benerjee. Of the two are three options Congress had - including the Vice President - the case for Pranab is based on a futuristic case for 2014. In all certainty - 2014 national election results would hold a big surprise and role of President would become paramount in decision making process in nominating next Prime Minister (Rahul Gandhi being Congress expectation).  Other reason could be faithful service to Gandhi family on the lines of Pratibha Patil (besides the current President being the first women).

The hypothesis is President Mukherjee would remain a gulaam and take the directives from the 10, Janpath. Here comes the key differentiators as well the pointers. Dr Manmohan Singh despite reaching the pinnacle of the India political structure remained a gulaam to her madam as a thank you for nominating him the Prime Minister of India. What ever are his personal compulsions or obligations or insecurity on account of his babu (Government official) background, Dr Singh would go down in the Indian History as one of the least effective Prime Ministers of India who presided over one the corrupt and ineffective Administrations. When such assessment is made, Sonia Gandhi would not be in the context. Strangely, the last five years have seen one of the "incompetent and disconnected" President who again remained gulaam to her master for nominating her President Of India.

Against this backdrop of incompetent performances, likes of Abdul Kalam or KR Narayanan of recent past or R Venkatraman of 1990's have made significant difference and upheld sanctity of the highest office. Once they moved into the office they performed like a President, taking independent decisions and stamping their authority on the Government.

Even PV Narasimha Rao when elected Prime Minister, under the circumstances most of the Congress big shots of the time assumed that they could manage the PM remotely. However, once he moved in the Race Course Road - PV proved to be a hard nut to crack. What ever be the shortcomings of his office and despite all the odds - Rap stamped his authority on the policy issues and made sure that, all those changes are irreversible. Despite official Congress view, PV is rated on of the best Prime Ministers of India who steered the nation out of crisis and then put it on a growth path. In the nutshell despite his long innings as gulaam of the Congress high command, once given an opportunity and responsibility he ensured his stamp on the legacy.

Once elected President of India, Pranab Mukherjee will have a choice to become a good President like Sarvepalli Radhkrishnan or an insignificant President on the lines of Frakruddin Ali Ahmed or Pratibha Patil. All the pointers indicate that Pranab would be an independent President who would not fit into the Congress overall game plan (it is possible that he is the architect of this plan). Pranab unlike Dr Singh protected his reputation and when it mattered stood to the point. Also, this would be the final office before his retirement from the public life and hence, he would not have any compulsions or obligations for post retirement life.

Post 2014 elections, the world would be lot different. Let's see if he would opt for Modi or Rahul in case of a tie.

Good luck to Pranab Mukerjee and good luck to India!

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