If we go by current indications, the discussion is not around who will win the Kadapa and Pulivendula elections. It is more about margin of victory and who will come second between Telugu Desam Party and Congress candidates.
Despite all this, High command in Delhi is pulling all it's "resources" at their disposal to see YSR congress party is defeated. I think the loss for Congress, irrespective of where it would stand in the counting would have serious consequences at national level. That is why we are seeing 8 or 9 Jagan Mohan Reddy's in field. It may sound as though Congress wanted teach a lesson for YS Jaganmohan Reddy. The fact otherwise is, a loss here would mean a serious blow Congress political base.
Today, looking at the Congress Government performance since 2009 - even under the normal circumstances it would be very difficult for them to return to the power in 2014. Considering the pathetic situation of Telugu Desam Party, merger of Chiranjeevi into Congress and the extremely volatile fortunes of Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) - in a nutshell there is no clear alternative for the Congress in the state.
Telugu Desam is non existent in Telangana region. With in the Andhra region, it does not hold a landslide support either - though the fortunes are better. Congress situation is almost similar. In Telangana - it's position is dependent on emotional factors rather than a solid base. This support base could be shifted away by KCR in TRS favour with his charged speeches. All in all, looking forward to 2014, the state is not really keen to vote for incumbent party but - there is no choice.
I think - Jaganmohan Reddy's one of the calculations must be based on this political vacuum.
Today both in Congress and TDP there are lot of fence sitters who would be willing to go enmasse with YSR Congress, provided he comes out victorious. In addition to Reddy base, I think Jagan is having strong support from Kapu's and minorities. This vote base would be good enough for him - to win Andhra and Rayalaseema regions. The fortunes in Telangana region would be dependent on his political strategies. One of them could be a tactical understanding with TRS. If this happens, Andhra and Rayalaseema regions would go with YSR Congress and TRS would take Telangana.
For Congress this would be a serious blow. It would be loosing 42 seats in loksabha and getting back into power is impossible.
Now congress needs a political strategy. One of the options is - announce Telangana State with the condition that, TRS would merge with Congress and that KCR would prostrate in front of 10, Janpath. If Telangana comes, KCR would be happy to do this merger. Congress can now count 9-10 loksabha seats.
All the political and social unrest that we have been seeing in Telangana region would shift to Andhra - Rayalaseema regions. But Congress fortunes would dramatically improve in Telangana.
Now Andhra and Rayalaseema would be new battle ground. In addition to the spontaneous outburst from the public - the impossible looks possible - that is a strategic understanding between and TDP and YSR Congress for the united Andhra Pradesh. In politics no one is a permanent friend or a foe. Let is be Unvadalli or Chiranjeevi - opportunities build the bridges and they break them in wider context
One thing is sure - Kadapa election would decide amongst many the prospects for the Telangana state.
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