Just in a span of 12 months things have changed dramatically for India. From being a darling and favoured destination for the global investors, it turned out to be a big nightmare for the entire investor community connected with India. During the past few weeks we have seen some swift actions from the Reserve Bank India, while Finance Minister Chidambaram and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh started soothing the entire country that is bracing for the biggest crisis in 17 years. With national elections round the corner, foreign reserves dwindling fast, rupee falling to historic lows, stock markets crashing rach day, all the euphoria is evaporating - while the situation is slowly moving towards 1991 when India out of serious economic compulsions started liberalising the countries economy (and still trying to liberate some of the last closed businesses).
The statements like India is safe or immune from the global economic turn down is not realistic assessment. When prosperity is built with globalisation, the global crisis are bound to effect Indian economy on the whole. We cannot choose what we want in this new world order.
Over the past year the USA, and during the past 4 months Europe are waging a battle that they are finding it very difficult to win. During the period slowly every world major economic is pushed into recession (to confirm officially it, may take a while because recessions figures are lagging indicators). Every country in the west has seen at least one major bank going bankrupt. Some of the countries themselves like Iceland are in default.
With wind blowing clearly from west to east, the problems are likely to arrive into India doorsteps early 2009. Government of India will find it hard to balance the equations to tide the crisis as the elections are round the corner and it is the time for the "populist schemes" to appeasing the vote banks. With all sectors showing remarkable slowdown ranging from the booming Real estate business to iconic Technology Sector, surely it is the time, the political will is needed to drive the country away from deeper crisis. How boldly Dr Singh can act like British Prime minister or American President? How much support the Government would get from the fractured coalition?
This is not a type of crisis India faced earlier. This is the first crisis of emerging and liberalising India. This is the India where many forces some times very powerful are ready to dictate terms to Indian Government.
It is interesting to see if India will find native solution to it's problems or fall in line with the rest and make things worst. Time only will tell, of course!
27th Oct 2009
1 comment:
There is a principle called Ockham's razor which is attributed to the 14th-century English logician and Franciscan friar, William of Ockham. It basically states that – "All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best."
The following are two simple ideas that effectively create the ideal social construct.
Simple Idea #1
1. Socialize ALL Land
2. Charge leases on ALL Land based on demand.
3. Return 100% of the resulting revenue to every man, woman and child in the form of a yearly dividend check.
4. Make the Universal Birthright of Land an Everlasting Standard in the education of every Child.
This effectively makes the average piece of Land Free for every Living Soul and restores our Natural Birthright as well as coupling our social construct to the Principles of Life.
Simple Idea #2
1. Remove ALL FORMS of taxation
2. Implement a Tax on ALL new goods based on the resources they contain and the resources they use in production and delivery (this can easily be implemented with the current barcode system used at the checkout)
3. Use this system to encourage/discourage various resource usages (High tax on non-renewable/ecosystem damaging products and low/no tax on renewable/ecosystem enhancing products) and to encourage purchasing of local products.
4. Use the resulting revenue to fund infrastructure expenses and the restoration of ecosystems.
This effectively encourages the creation/use of longer lasting, high quality products as well as encouraging recycling and reuse of existing products.
Idea #2 effectively constrains the ravaging appetite of the capitalistic consumer society within the Boundaries of Sustainability while Idea #1 effectively encloses both Sustainability and capitalism within the Principles of Life.
That's it!!! Simple and Effective
Scott
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