Andhra Pradesh - Hung Assembly after next elections

With the fast emerging developments in Andhra Pradesh, one thing getting clear - after the next elections (late 2008 or early 2009) Andhra Pradesh voter will give a hung Assembly. After enjoying the luxury of the absolute majority for 5 decades (for TDP or Congress), I am sure that votes will give a fitting verdict. This will make make politics even murkier than ever.

With the exodus of leaders from Telugu Desam party with a Telangana Mark III agenda - the biggest looser will be Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS). Only some extraordinary political developments would save Kalvakuntla Chandra Sekhar Rao political future. It will not have any count in the assembly or may end up with solitory couple

Next, Loksatta the so called principled based political outfit either will merge with some other party (possibly Chiru's party) or go into extinction. Dr N Jayaprakash Narayan, highly respected former IAS officer will be restricted to TV shows (If E-TV survives) or news paper statements. Loksatta perhaps will find it hard to field candidates at some places.

Telugu Desam would be the next biggest looser. Nara Chandra Babu Naidu be hit from all sides. Chiranjeevi party will eat into his vote bank in north coastal Andhra. He may do well in some parts of Andhra and Telangana. At most his count would be not be more than 50. Even for this, he will have to find the help of two brothers-in-law - Balakrishna and Harikrishna. Balakrishna is untested and the theme centred around NTR would not get them many seats. Chandra Babu will see more desertions if he brings his brothers-in-law at centre stage.

Left and BJP will be net gainers if they play their cards well. The prospects for Left look better with the tumbling economic scenario. Specially in Telengana - left will be a gainer but not more than 10 seats to their account. For BJP they will have a better show in urban areas if they can comeback with a strategy like India shining. They may take 5-7 seats at best. It all depends on likes of Venkayya Naidu and his oratory powers.

Congress will loose heavily from where they are now, but not as bad as Telugu Desam. With anti-establishment factor and likely desertions to Chiranjeevi's party and economic gloom, their count would be between 50 and 75. Again Congress cannot do any better in North Coastal Andhra (upwards of Vijayawada). All the black sheep in Congress will do their best to see Dr Y S Rajasekhar Reddy is humilated and they may become successful this time.

If Davender Goud & Co form a new party (if they are smart, then they will) - it will have handsome gains in Telangana. This party will be the key to next Government formation with no more than 30 seats to their count.

This leaves Chiranjeevi and his political party. Chiru is starting with a null count. Hence he will be the net gainer. Chiranjeevi will not do well in urban centres. For him north coastal Andhra is key. Though it is expected that his party will do well in his area specially in East and West Godavari districts - it is possible that he may not do well as expected, like NTR failed to do well all along expect on one occasion in his community hot bed area like Krishna and Guntur districts (NTR even lost in Gudivada his native place!). This of course will depend on the cunning plan that Congress may implement. Chiranjeevi also may gain reasonable seats in rest of the regions. But he won't be getting a majority to form a Government.

Let's wait and see!

23rd June 2008
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