Looking at the history of Pakistan, the imposition of Emergency state on Saturday should not come as a surprise to anyone. Pakistan had the longest history of military rule since it came into existence six decades ago. But, the difference this time is, recent developments in Pakistan would potentially make huge impact on India growth if persist longer.
The relationship between India and Pakistan can be described as one that is based on mutual distrust and Politically hyper volatility. Politicians on either side of the border, for a long time played with their citizens emotions. The turbulent relationship can be understood better if split the existance into two stages - Pre-1990's and from 1990's.
Last 15 years the region and the sub-continent has changed dramatically. While India is moving rapidly, to become one of the fasted growing economies (or a economic super power), Pakistan on the other hand is more and more a fractured country. The relative prosperity of Indians and their fast moving economy is leaving little room to think about legacy relations earlier to 1990. Pakistan in the meanwhile is getting into deeper troubles and loosing all the opportunities.
The politicians in Delhi, starting with PV Narasimha Rao, realising that India is different entity from Pakistan, stopped playing with emotions of their citizens. As a result the energies of state and people have been directed productively. India started to treat Pakistan as a friendly neighbour. The emotional slogans to raise the temperature of citizens have disappeared. Vajpayee, notably made a significant contribution to improve the relationship. In fact, Pakistan and India lost two valuable opportunities to make a permanent peace. The failure to strike a deal is big blow to Pakistan than to India. However, Pakistan is looking like a looser. Manmohan Singh on his part maintained the status-quo and did not aggravate the situation.
For India the recent developments in Pakistan add another trouble neighbour to its list. Sri Lanka, Burma and Bangladesh are not stable countries by any measure. Since 1999, in the name of terror Gen Musharraf or otherwise, provided much needed stability. As a matter of fact, for the first time the policies of both Indian and Pakistan Governments have converged. This helped India, by releiving from the cross border tensions.
With latest developments, it is clear that Gen Musharraf is going to loose his authority, credibility and popularity further. Pakistan on the other hand had little positive alternatives both for its citizens and neighbours. Both Mrs Bhutto and Nawaz Sheriff had poor legacy from their Administrations. Pakistanis at the best had to choose from the best of the worst rather than, someone who can provide a vision and direction in the best interests.
For the time being, most of the countries may support Musharraf but coming months are going to be challenging for everyone who had interest in the Pakistan's stability. Under the current circumstances, no one is more keen on Pakistan's political stability than India. Someone though famously said "we can choose our friends not our Neighbours", the fact remains that a troubled neighbour is potentially more dangerous than a helpful friend miles away. Unfortunately for India all its neighbours are getting into troubles for one reason or other and that it not a good sign.
Though Indian politicians have made moves in the right direction since 1990's, the time and opportunity has come again for India to show that it can help its neighbours as well. Else, the soon India may be in troubled waters. That is neither good for its economic success not for its new generation who have grown with less emotions.
How it can help? well, this may be the opportunity for India to demonstrate that the relationship is based on genuine trust than mis-trust.
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