Mayawati's magic worked. Today it is the new formula for the political success. All parties are working hard to find similar social engineering formulae for each state and perhaps a complex and a viable formula for entire India. Is this a new invention or simply a rediscovery of the forgotten formula?
In India we have many political formulae. Each worked at appropriate times and miserably failed at the other times. Let's look at Social Engineering trends
1. During the Babri Masjid crisis and immediately after the demolition it was Muslim card that worked very well. Both Congress and BJP reaped dividends. Today, the pro-muslim card is not having any appeal. If Gujarat crisis brought Kalam the Presidency, today the UP success is definitely deny Kalam his next term of presidency. Everyone knows despite being himself a Muslim, he was a Secular Indian. In the end he was acceptable in the equation at that time.
2. If Mulayam benefited from the pro-Muslim card, Narendra Modi in Gujarat succeeded with the Anti-Muslim or pro-Hindu card. This is perhaps one state that will remain so for some time to come where caste may become irrelevant in wider context.
3. Since 1960's, Tamil Nadu parties succeeded on anti-Brahmin agenda. Perhaps this is first Social Engineering formula successfully applied in independent India. Both AIDMK and DMK lived and re-lived on this agenda and as a result, Tamil Brahmins were driven out of the state. Those left the state emerged successful while those remained in the state driven into Economic poverty. Nearly after four decades, the formula still works. However, it is important to note here that Jayalalithaa and V N Janaki the wife of MGR are both Brahmins by birth. Tamil Nadu still awaits for some Mayawati to save the upper castes dacay in the state.
4. Two Southern States Andhra and Karnataka have been ruled by two dominant communities (by money and wealth) all along but for brief spells. In Andhra the Kamma's and Reddy's numbers fall into the same numbers (less than 5%). This is same a Brahmins in the state. The dominant communities in the state by numers the like Kapu's having denied the power for long are waiting to clinch the next opportunity. The problem for the Kapu's is that they do not have honest leaders. The talk that Chiranjeevi may launch a party in the state will definetely shape a new Social Engineering formula. The upper castes in the state, specially Brahmins and Vysyas will fit into this new social engineering equation. In Karnataka it is not possible to bring a social engineering formula for the time being due to lack of leaders from the non Vokkalinga and Lingayat communities.
5. While Lalu played successfully his Social Engineering cards by bringing the BC's, Dalits and Muslims - the loss of power was due to other reasons than Social Engineering failure. This formula may still work in the coming elections unless Nitish comes up with a magic formula.
6. Maharastra - is a complex state as far social equations are concerned. But, Maya can do a magic here and repeat a success since people are fed up of the Shiv Sena, Sharad Pawar and Congress. The only problem here is Maya needs to find an acceptable face for the Social Engineering.
7. Kerala and Bengal are in different basket. While Orissa, Jarkhand and Chattisgarh etc., have to find equations but the opportunities lies with in the Tribal communities
8. Punjab always plays a religious card - Akali, BJP and Congress are on musical chair sharing power in rotation. Hindu, Anti-Hindu, Sikh and Anti-Sikh are the main themes.
1 comment:
I like the way of political analysis
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